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The less literal reading of OPs statements is that Tesla is overvalued & will at some point in the future face correction down to a value more in line with thei

by ido 4y ago

The less literal reading of OPs statements is that Tesla is overvalued & will at some point in the future face correction down to a value more in line with their sales/profit potential. I have no horse in the game (no Tesla nor any other automotive stocks) but we’ve definitely seen companies being massively overvalued in the past and then face fierce correction - AOL was once worth $222 billion and later (not even that much later) sold for less than 1% of that.

tiahura 4y ago
We’ve been hearing that for at least 4 years at this point. Along with scenarios where Volkswagen or Ford is going to teach Tesla how things really work. I’m not persuaded. First, my understanding is that Tesla has a night and day lead in battery sourcing. Second, Tesla doesn’t have the legacy costs that the others do. Also, at this point, Tesla is still selling cars faster than they can build them. Even if demand weakens, they may still be at max output.
- tsimionescu 4y ago
  Sure, but Tesla is selling high end cars, which are a rounding error in the car market.
- enragedcacti 4y ago
  > First, my understanding is that Tesla has a night and day lead in battery sourcing. They have a factory where Panasonic employees come in and make batteries for them (a little glib, but not that far off), but aside from that they really don't have some secret sauce that we know about. They are putting CATL batteries in their cars just like everyone else and they don't have any mining or refining operational unlike BYD. Their battery research and production is massively behind schedule and the future of the Model 3, Y, and Cybertruck all depend on volume 4680 production which is behind at Panasonic as well. Ford has the supply for 400,000 EVs lined up between now and 2024 and Volkswagen has the supply to outproduce Tesla in 2024. BYD is already producing more PHEV/BEV than Tesla, and if there is a solid-state breakthrough it won't be happening at Tesla.
  - ido 4y ago
    Even aside from all of that, I was just reacting to the overly simplified “well by definition they’re worth what the market says they are so there’s nothing to discuss beyond it”. The stock market is routinely “mistaken” and stocks get overhyped and then crash down later (or vice versa). It’s not some omniscient deity that’s never wrong (except in a very literal and impractical way of looking at it).
  - panick21_ 4y ago
    You are making a number of mistakes. First of, Tesla is buying massively from Panasonic, LG and CATL. They are also doing their own batteries in addition to that. The production of that is behind schedule, but not that far, and I can believe how little credit Tesla is getting for literally turning into a battery company over just a few years. Their batteries are gone give them a huge advantage in margin. > depend on volume 4680 production which is behind at Panasonic as well Tesla 4680 have nothing to do with Panasonic. Panasonic is also gone make 4680 format cells for Tesla, but those are totally different and have nothing to do with the cells currently shipping from Texas. > Ford has the supply for 400,000 EVs lined up Tesla makes that many in less then 6 month. And there is a large difference between signing a supply agreement and actually getting it. The lithium industry had scaling problems and pretty much all expert suggest a shortage is coming. For Ford to get all those materials, it requires a huge number of supply expedition projects to go correctly and that is not at all guaranteed. For until a few years ago didn't even believe that had to worry about batteries or battery materials at all. And since then they have done a 180 and try to tell everybody how EV focused and smart they are, when in-fact they are behind the curve. > Volkswagen has the supply to outproduce Tesla in 2024 Not sure where you got this from, but its false. > BYD is already producing more PHEV/BEV than Tesla Nice that you snuck PHEV in-there. But yeah BYD is a great company, but their cars are mostly China only. > if there is a solid-state breakthrough it won't be happening at Tesla. Solid stage or rather what people actually mean by that, lithium anodes, is not inherently superior to silicon anodes. Andt Tesla has some of the most interesting research in that direction. Also solid state will not really be relevant in the BEV space for many years to come.
    - enragedcacti 4y ago

by ido 4y ago

tiahura 4y ago

We’ve been hearing that for at least 4 years at this point. Along with scenarios where Volkswagen or Ford is going to teach Tesla how things really work. I’m not persuaded. First, my understanding is that Tesla has a night and day lead in battery sourcing. Second, Tesla doesn’t have the legacy costs that the others do. Also, at this point, Tesla is still selling cars faster than they can build them. Even if demand weakens, they may still be at max output.

tsimionescu 4y ago
Sure, but Tesla is selling high end cars, which are a rounding error in the car market.
enragedcacti 4y ago
> First, my understanding is that Tesla has a night and day lead in battery sourcing. They have a factory where Panasonic employees come in and make batteries for them (a little glib, but not that far off), but aside from that they really don't have some secret sauce that we know about. They are putting CATL batteries in their cars just like everyone else and they don't have any mining or refining operational unlike BYD. Their battery research and production is massively behind schedule and the future of the Model 3, Y, and Cybertruck all depend on volume 4680 production which is behind at Panasonic as well. Ford has the supply for 400,000 EVs lined up between now and 2024 and Volkswagen has the supply to outproduce Tesla in 2024. BYD is already producing more PHEV/BEV than Tesla, and if there is a solid-state breakthrough it won't be happening at Tesla.
- ido 4y ago
  Even aside from all of that, I was just reacting to the overly simplified “well by definition they’re worth what the market says they are so there’s nothing to discuss beyond it”. The stock market is routinely “mistaken” and stocks get overhyped and then crash down later (or vice versa). It’s not some omniscient deity that’s never wrong (except in a very literal and impractical way of looking at it).
- panick21_ 4y ago
  You are making a number of mistakes. First of, Tesla is buying massively from Panasonic, LG and CATL. They are also doing their own batteries in addition to that. The production of that is behind schedule, but not that far, and I can believe how little credit Tesla is getting for literally turning into a battery company over just a few years. Their batteries are gone give them a huge advantage in margin. > depend on volume 4680 production which is behind at Panasonic as well Tesla 4680 have nothing to do with Panasonic. Panasonic is also gone make 4680 format cells for Tesla, but those are totally different and have nothing to do with the cells currently shipping from Texas. > Ford has the supply for 400,000 EVs lined up Tesla makes that many in less then 6 month. And there is a large difference between signing a supply agreement and actually getting it. The lithium industry had scaling problems and pretty much all expert suggest a shortage is coming. For Ford to get all those materials, it requires a huge number of supply expedition projects to go correctly and that is not at all guaranteed. For until a few years ago didn't even believe that had to worry about batteries or battery materials at all. And since then they have done a 180 and try to tell everybody how EV focused and smart they are, when in-fact they are behind the curve. > Volkswagen has the supply to outproduce Tesla in 2024 Not sure where you got this from, but its false. > BYD is already producing more PHEV/BEV than Tesla Nice that you snuck PHEV in-there. But yeah BYD is a great company, but their cars are mostly China only. > if there is a solid-state breakthrough it won't be happening at Tesla. Solid stage or rather what people actually mean by that, lithium anodes, is not inherently superior to silicon anodes. Andt Tesla has some of the most interesting research in that direction. Also solid state will not really be relevant in the BEV space for many years to come.
  - enragedcacti 4y ago