4 ms·

Firstly, it doesn't seem likely that we'll see a major change in the next three months, but for the sake of argument, let's roll with it for a sec. Let's say th

Firstly, it doesn't seem likely that we'll see a major change in the next three months, but for the sake of argument, let's roll with it for a sec. Let's say there's some big change, I guess I'm having trouble imagining a change in military situation in the next 3 months that would change the situation for Germany. Ukraine kicks Russia out and Russia decides to restore gas to Germany? Russia decisively takes more of Ukraine... and somehow all sanctions are dropped?

jollyllama 4y ago
>Ukraine kicks Russia out and Russia decides to restore gas to Germany? Why would Russia need to maintain leverage at that point? Wouldn't they be better off just selling the gas and taking the money? >Russia decisively takes more of Ukraine... and somehow all sanctions are dropped? If that happens, and the immediate conflict is resolved, what material reason is there for EU citizens to endure the cold?
- UncleOxidant 4y ago
  > Why would Russia need to maintain leverage at that point? Wouldn't they be better off just selling the gas and taking the money? If Russia lost decisively in Ukraine, I don't think they'll turn the gas back on to Europe unless there's a regime change in Russia. Putin will be thrashing around doing whatever he can to make Europe suffer for their helping Ukraine. > If that happens, and the immediate conflict is resolved, what material reason is there for EU citizens to endure the cold? But would the conflict be resolved in the case where Russia takes more of Ukraine? I don't see how it could be considered resolved at that point. Even if (especially if?) Russia were to take over all of Ukraine and install a puppet regime the west will continue to isolate Russia.
sofixa 4y ago
A coup in Russia deposing Putin wouldn't be unexpected. The Russian economy is going down the drain, and the real world common people effects of all the sanctions are going to be felt more and more. Rumbling from the rabble could push oligarchs being sad about their yachts, mansions and vacations to act. Or disgruntled scapegoated military/intelligence officers taking revenge. Or an Ukrainian hit squad. There's plenty of time for the situation to change drastically, but nobody should rely on that happening.
- UncleOxidant 4y ago
  > A coup in Russia deposing Putin wouldn't be unexpected. This seems like the only thing that could possibly happen in the next 3 months that would actually change the situation. But it also doesn't seem likely to happen within the next 3 months.
- yucky 4y ago

jollyllama 4y ago

>Ukraine kicks Russia out and Russia decides to restore gas to Germany? Why would Russia need to maintain leverage at that point? Wouldn't they be better off just selling the gas and taking the money? >Russia decisively takes more of Ukraine... and somehow all sanctions are dropped? If that happens, and the immediate conflict is resolved, what material reason is there for EU citizens to endure the cold?

UncleOxidant 4y ago
> Why would Russia need to maintain leverage at that point? Wouldn't they be better off just selling the gas and taking the money? If Russia lost decisively in Ukraine, I don't think they'll turn the gas back on to Europe unless there's a regime change in Russia. Putin will be thrashing around doing whatever he can to make Europe suffer for their helping Ukraine. > If that happens, and the immediate conflict is resolved, what material reason is there for EU citizens to endure the cold? But would the conflict be resolved in the case where Russia takes more of Ukraine? I don't see how it could be considered resolved at that point. Even if (especially if?) Russia were to take over all of Ukraine and install a puppet regime the west will continue to isolate Russia.

sofixa 4y ago

A coup in Russia deposing Putin wouldn't be unexpected. The Russian economy is going down the drain, and the real world common people effects of all the sanctions are going to be felt more and more. Rumbling from the rabble could push oligarchs being sad about their yachts, mansions and vacations to act. Or disgruntled scapegoated military/intelligence officers taking revenge. Or an Ukrainian hit squad. There's plenty of time for the situation to change drastically, but nobody should rely on that happening.

UncleOxidant 4y ago
> A coup in Russia deposing Putin wouldn't be unexpected. This seems like the only thing that could possibly happen in the next 3 months that would actually change the situation. But it also doesn't seem likely to happen within the next 3 months.
yucky 4y ago