4 ms·

Who knows, the military situation could change a lot in three months. The article doesn't really take that into account.

raverbashing 4y ago
Buying from the same unreliable supplier again would be a "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me"
- ahartmetz 4y ago
  It's not necessarily the same supplier anymore once the chief assclown in charge is gone. On the other hand, Russia has a centuries old tradition of awful leaders and suffering people, so...
- jollyllama 4y ago
  Relatively speaking, the deprivation is easier to sell to EU citizens when the crisis is immediate. It's more compelling when lives and land are more clearly on the line, today. If the conflict goes cold again, it's harder to argue against importing gas.
oneoff786 4y ago
I can’t imagine a drastic sweep from either side leading to a quick reset of energy markets
- ekianjo 4y ago
  Ukraine will fall quickly if they stop getting support from the outside in terms of weapons and supply.
  - oneoff786 4y ago
    I doubt it. Ukraine is very well armed at this point. They can resist for a very very long time. If not do better without any further support. But regardless that’s not the question. Let’s say Russia just rolls a 20 and does far better than is rationally possible, taking Odessa and much of the east rapidly. How does that change the energy situation? Let’s say Russia captures all of Ukraine and gets its genocidal wishes. Does that change anything? Are they really gonna say “well the war is over so let’s resume gas purchases”? I think no.
    - solnyshok 4y ago
      well. hmm. I wonder if shareholders of large German industrial groups think the same.
    - dagw 4y ago
      If Russia secures Odessa and Eastern Ukraine and forces a 'reasonable' peace deal on Ukraine while keeping their "genocidal wishes" to a minimum, then yes I unfortunately see this whole thing being forgotten and forgiven by the EU in short order and gas purchases resuming quickly.
      - _kbh_ 4y ago
        As long as Ukraine has plenty of anti ship capabilities I don't see Russia even blinking towards Odessa cause they know any ship with in range will be sunk and they don't want that.
      - oneoff786 4y ago
        In the fantasy world where Russia steam rolls Ukraine and also stops being evil, and Ukrainians just roll over and take it, sure maybe.
  - Pakdef 4y ago
    That's why I'm wondering why Russia doesn't consider weapon suppliers being at war with them.
    - adrianN 4y ago
      Probably because Russia doesn't want a nuclear war.
    - oneoff786 4y ago
      Russia can’t do anything outside of nuclear war. They’re weak and poor.
neals 4y ago
As always, Russia is waiting for Winter to force their enemies hand.
- toyg 4y ago
  Are they? They're effectively the ones in no-man's land at the moment. If they can't consolidate their gains before winter, they will struggle.
- wobbleblob 4y ago
  That's a cliche that's not historically accurate. Napoleon's army occupied Moscow by late summer. They started their retreat in early fall, and got stuck in the mud. His army had been mostly destroyed before winter even started. In the first world war, the German army fought through 3 winters in Russia before Russia surrendered. In the second world war, the German army fought through 3 winters before they were defeated. In the February 2022 Russian invasion in to Ukraine, the Russian army got stuck in the mud and was forced to abandon their siege of Kiev under heavy losses. The Russian winter isn't necessarily any more pleasant for the Russians than for their enemies. I'm sure they made use of the climatic circumstances, but the weather didn't do the work for them. Napoleon and the nazis were both defeated by an opponent with a better grand strategy and logistics.
  - jollyllama 4y ago
    >the German army fought through 3 winters That's true, but the winter was famously the inflection point in WWII. It's no coincidence.
    - wobbleblob 4y ago
      All the sources I've read agree that this had more to do with the complete absence of a long term strategy on the German side, not the weather. They had resources for 6 months, and went into the USSR with everything they had, no reserves. When that wasn't enough, there was no plan B.
      - 4y ago
namaria 4y ago
Ah yes, hoping for a quick resolution of conflicts in the Russian front has always been a safe bet /s
UncleOxidant 4y ago
Firstly, it doesn't seem likely that we'll see a major change in the next three months, but for the sake of argument, let's roll with it for a sec. Let's say there's some big change, I guess I'm having trouble imagining a change in military situation in the next 3 months that would change the situation for Germany. Ukraine kicks Russia out and Russia decides to restore gas to Germany? Russia decisively takes more of Ukraine... and somehow all sanctions are dropped?
- jollyllama 4y ago
  >Ukraine kicks Russia out and Russia decides to restore gas to Germany? Why would Russia need to maintain leverage at that point? Wouldn't they be better off just selling the gas and taking the money? >Russia decisively takes more of Ukraine... and somehow all sanctions are dropped? If that happens, and the immediate conflict is resolved, what material reason is there for EU citizens to endure the cold?
  - UncleOxidant 4y ago
    > Why would Russia need to maintain leverage at that point? Wouldn't they be better off just selling the gas and taking the money? If Russia lost decisively in Ukraine, I don't think they'll turn the gas back on to Europe unless there's a regime change in Russia. Putin will be thrashing around doing whatever he can to make Europe suffer for their helping Ukraine. > If that happens, and the immediate conflict is resolved, what material reason is there for EU citizens to endure the cold? But would the conflict be resolved in the case where Russia takes more of Ukraine? I don't see how it could be considered resolved at that point. Even if (especially if?) Russia were to take over all of Ukraine and install a puppet regime the west will continue to isolate Russia.
- sofixa 4y ago
  A coup in Russia deposing Putin wouldn't be unexpected. The Russian economy is going down the drain, and the real world common people effects of all the sanctions are going to be felt more and more. Rumbling from the rabble could push oligarchs being sad about their yachts, mansions and vacations to act. Or disgruntled scapegoated military/intelligence officers taking revenge. Or an Ukrainian hit squad. There's plenty of time for the situation to change drastically, but nobody should rely on that happening.

raverbashing 4y ago

Buying from the same unreliable supplier again would be a "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me"

ahartmetz 4y ago
It's not necessarily the same supplier anymore once the chief assclown in charge is gone. On the other hand, Russia has a centuries old tradition of awful leaders and suffering people, so...
jollyllama 4y ago
Relatively speaking, the deprivation is easier to sell to EU citizens when the crisis is immediate. It's more compelling when lives and land are more clearly on the line, today. If the conflict goes cold again, it's harder to argue against importing gas.

oneoff786 4y ago

I can’t imagine a drastic sweep from either side leading to a quick reset of energy markets

ekianjo 4y ago
Ukraine will fall quickly if they stop getting support from the outside in terms of weapons and supply.
- oneoff786 4y ago
  I doubt it. Ukraine is very well armed at this point. They can resist for a very very long time. If not do better without any further support. But regardless that’s not the question. Let’s say Russia just rolls a 20 and does far better than is rationally possible, taking Odessa and much of the east rapidly. How does that change the energy situation? Let’s say Russia captures all of Ukraine and gets its genocidal wishes. Does that change anything? Are they really gonna say “well the war is over so let’s resume gas purchases”? I think no.
  - solnyshok 4y ago
    well. hmm. I wonder if shareholders of large German industrial groups think the same.
  - dagw 4y ago
    If Russia secures Odessa and Eastern Ukraine and forces a 'reasonable' peace deal on Ukraine while keeping their "genocidal wishes" to a minimum, then yes I unfortunately see this whole thing being forgotten and forgiven by the EU in short order and gas purchases resuming quickly.
    - _kbh_ 4y ago
      As long as Ukraine has plenty of anti ship capabilities I don't see Russia even blinking towards Odessa cause they know any ship with in range will be sunk and they don't want that.
    - oneoff786 4y ago
      In the fantasy world where Russia steam rolls Ukraine and also stops being evil, and Ukrainians just roll over and take it, sure maybe.
- Pakdef 4y ago
  That's why I'm wondering why Russia doesn't consider weapon suppliers being at war with them.
  - adrianN 4y ago
    Probably because Russia doesn't want a nuclear war.
  - oneoff786 4y ago
    Russia can’t do anything outside of nuclear war. They’re weak and poor.

neals 4y ago

As always, Russia is waiting for Winter to force their enemies hand.

toyg 4y ago
Are they? They're effectively the ones in no-man's land at the moment. If they can't consolidate their gains before winter, they will struggle.
wobbleblob 4y ago
That's a cliche that's not historically accurate. Napoleon's army occupied Moscow by late summer. They started their retreat in early fall, and got stuck in the mud. His army had been mostly destroyed before winter even started. In the first world war, the German army fought through 3 winters in Russia before Russia surrendered. In the second world war, the German army fought through 3 winters before they were defeated. In the February 2022 Russian invasion in to Ukraine, the Russian army got stuck in the mud and was forced to abandon their siege of Kiev under heavy losses. The Russian winter isn't necessarily any more pleasant for the Russians than for their enemies. I'm sure they made use of the climatic circumstances, but the weather didn't do the work for them. Napoleon and the nazis were both defeated by an opponent with a better grand strategy and logistics.
- jollyllama 4y ago
  >the German army fought through 3 winters That's true, but the winter was famously the inflection point in WWII. It's no coincidence.
  - wobbleblob 4y ago
    All the sources I've read agree that this had more to do with the complete absence of a long term strategy on the German side, not the weather. They had resources for 6 months, and went into the USSR with everything they had, no reserves. When that wasn't enough, there was no plan B.
    - 4y ago

namaria 4y ago

Ah yes, hoping for a quick resolution of conflicts in the Russian front has always been a safe bet /s

UncleOxidant 4y ago

Firstly, it doesn't seem likely that we'll see a major change in the next three months, but for the sake of argument, let's roll with it for a sec. Let's say there's some big change, I guess I'm having trouble imagining a change in military situation in the next 3 months that would change the situation for Germany. Ukraine kicks Russia out and Russia decides to restore gas to Germany? Russia decisively takes more of Ukraine... and somehow all sanctions are dropped?

jollyllama 4y ago
>Ukraine kicks Russia out and Russia decides to restore gas to Germany? Why would Russia need to maintain leverage at that point? Wouldn't they be better off just selling the gas and taking the money? >Russia decisively takes more of Ukraine... and somehow all sanctions are dropped? If that happens, and the immediate conflict is resolved, what material reason is there for EU citizens to endure the cold?
- UncleOxidant 4y ago
  > Why would Russia need to maintain leverage at that point? Wouldn't they be better off just selling the gas and taking the money? If Russia lost decisively in Ukraine, I don't think they'll turn the gas back on to Europe unless there's a regime change in Russia. Putin will be thrashing around doing whatever he can to make Europe suffer for their helping Ukraine. > If that happens, and the immediate conflict is resolved, what material reason is there for EU citizens to endure the cold? But would the conflict be resolved in the case where Russia takes more of Ukraine? I don't see how it could be considered resolved at that point. Even if (especially if?) Russia were to take over all of Ukraine and install a puppet regime the west will continue to isolate Russia.
sofixa 4y ago
A coup in Russia deposing Putin wouldn't be unexpected. The Russian economy is going down the drain, and the real world common people effects of all the sanctions are going to be felt more and more. Rumbling from the rabble could push oligarchs being sad about their yachts, mansions and vacations to act. Or disgruntled scapegoated military/intelligence officers taking revenge. Or an Ukrainian hit squad. There's plenty of time for the situation to change drastically, but nobody should rely on that happening.