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This is not true. https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/305/graphic-when-emissions-stop-warming-stops/ https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/305/grap

This is not true. https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/305/graphic-when-emissions-stop-warming-stops/ https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/305/graphic-when-...

pier25 4y ago
It is true. In fact if you look at the source for that graph [1] you'll see it's a paper from 2009 and they used old 2007 IPCC data for their models. The IPCC has not taken feedbacks into account until their sixth report of which the synthesis hasn't been published yet [2]. In 2009 feedbacks were still not well understood. In fact Natalia Shakhova didn't publish her seminal paper on methane in the Arctic until 2010. Here's an interview with her in 2013: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kx1Jxk6kjbQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kx1Jxk6kjbQ [1] https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.0812721106 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.0812721106 [2] https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/ https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/
- salmonfamine 4y ago
  Interesting, I pulled this from a very recent tweet from a climate scientist. This article delves into it in more detail: https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-will-global-warming-stop-as-soon-as-net-zero-emissions-are-reached/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-will-global-warming-st... Curious to hear your take on that.
  - pier25 4y ago
    I'm not a scientist but I've been reading about climate change for some years now. Maybe I'm missing something but here's my pedestrian view on it. The thing that bugs me the most is the article almost completely ignores the role of feedbacks. This has been the classic IPCC position (which AFAIK they've rectified for their sixth assessment). The article only mentions this right at the end: "If, however, zero emissions were to occur later in the century, there is the potential to lock in more carbon-cycle feedback processes – such as melting permafrost – than under current global temperature levels." Quite a strange comment considering the permafrost has been melting for decades. See the Natalia Shakhova video I shared on my earlier comment. A quick google search will tell you more about the methane feedback. And there are other feedbacks already triggered like the Arctic ice melting. Arctic ice deflects sunlight and has been decreasing yearly since we started measuring it in the 70s IIRC. See the latest data from the PIOMAS project: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1.png http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger... The article also makes some bizarre claims such as "If emissions are cut to zero, on the other hand, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 would quickly fall, before eventually stabilising at a lower level.". But according to NASA, CO2 remains in the atmosphere between 300 and 1000 years. https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2915/the-atmosphere-getting-a-handle-on-carbon-dioxide/ https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2915/the-atmosphere-getting-a-... https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/climate-change-evidence-causes/question-20/ https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/climate-chan... Then "as the oceans slowly warmed up to reach the same temperature as the atmosphere". The oceans absorb more heat than the atmosphere which is the released over the following decades in a phenomenon sometimes called climate lag. http://climatecat.eu/ufaqs/5-why-does-co2-lag-temperature/ http://climatecat.eu/ufaqs/5-why-does-co2-lag-temperature/ https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/3/031001 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/3/03...

This is not true. https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/305/graphic-when-emissions-stop-warming-stops/ https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/305/graphic-when-...

pier25 4y ago

It is true. In fact if you look at the source for that graph [1] you'll see it's a paper from 2009 and they used old 2007 IPCC data for their models. The IPCC has not taken feedbacks into account until their sixth report of which the synthesis hasn't been published yet [2]. In 2009 feedbacks were still not well understood. In fact Natalia Shakhova didn't publish her seminal paper on methane in the Arctic until 2010. Here's an interview with her in 2013: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kx1Jxk6kjbQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kx1Jxk6kjbQ [1] https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.0812721106 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.0812721106 [2] https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/ https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/

salmonfamine 4y ago
Interesting, I pulled this from a very recent tweet from a climate scientist. This article delves into it in more detail: https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-will-global-warming-stop-as-soon-as-net-zero-emissions-are-reached/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-will-global-warming-st... Curious to hear your take on that.
- pier25 4y ago
  I'm not a scientist but I've been reading about climate change for some years now. Maybe I'm missing something but here's my pedestrian view on it. The thing that bugs me the most is the article almost completely ignores the role of feedbacks. This has been the classic IPCC position (which AFAIK they've rectified for their sixth assessment). The article only mentions this right at the end: "If, however, zero emissions were to occur later in the century, there is the potential to lock in more carbon-cycle feedback processes – such as melting permafrost – than under current global temperature levels." Quite a strange comment considering the permafrost has been melting for decades. See the Natalia Shakhova video I shared on my earlier comment. A quick google search will tell you more about the methane feedback. And there are other feedbacks already triggered like the Arctic ice melting. Arctic ice deflects sunlight and has been decreasing yearly since we started measuring it in the 70s IIRC. See the latest data from the PIOMAS project: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1.png http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger... The article also makes some bizarre claims such as "If emissions are cut to zero, on the other hand, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 would quickly fall, before eventually stabilising at a lower level.". But according to NASA, CO2 remains in the atmosphere between 300 and 1000 years. https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2915/the-atmosphere-getting-a-handle-on-carbon-dioxide/ https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2915/the-atmosphere-getting-a-... https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/climate-change-evidence-causes/question-20/ https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/climate-chan... Then "as the oceans slowly warmed up to reach the same temperature as the atmosphere". The oceans absorb more heat than the atmosphere which is the released over the following decades in a phenomenon sometimes called climate lag. http://climatecat.eu/ufaqs/5-why-does-co2-lag-temperature/ http://climatecat.eu/ufaqs/5-why-does-co2-lag-temperature/ https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/3/031001 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/3/03...