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> we haven't even managed to stop (or greatly slow) the growth of global emissions We definitely have managed to greatly slow emissions growth, and it seems pr

> we haven't even managed to stop (or greatly slow) the growth of global emissions We definitely have managed to greatly slow emissions growth, and it seems pretty likely that humanity's greatest carbon emitting year will happen before 2030. https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1517943601124229120/photo/1 https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1517943601124229120/ph... This is slower than it should be, but there's very promising progress to build from

arethuza 4y ago
Are those reductions (which, of course, are a very good thing) actually reflected in the Keeling Curve? https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/ https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/
- PheonixPharts 4y ago
  People like to get optimistic about accounting tricks, we're in the Eron reality when it comes to climate change. The Keeling curve shows that not only is atmospheric CO2 increasing, but the rate it is increasing is also increasing. The difference between the Keeling curve and all other measures of industrial pollution is that the CO2 in the atmosphere can be directly measured, everything else has to be estimated based on reported figures. It doesn't matter how clever you are in accounting, the atmosphere doesn't care if your reported emissions show progress towards climate goals. The methane situation is even worse[0]. 0. https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_ch4/ https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_ch4/
- esoterica 4y ago
  The rate of increase in emissions slowing down means that the third derivative of atmospheric carbon is negative. Your chart shows that the second derivative of atmospheric carbon is negative. Both these observations are consistent with each other.
  - arethuza 4y ago
    Interestingly article on "Estimating the short-time rate of change in the trend of the Keeling curve": https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-77921-2 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-77921-2
- jjk166 4y ago
  Yes The highest year-over-year increase in CO2 concentration was 2016-2017, and it's been on a downward trend since. The 2020-2021 increase was 30% smaller than the peak. That's still a lot, about 3X 1970 levels, but if the trend continues at the current rate we should return to 1970 levels in 15 years, and that will be with more than double the world population and 30 times the world GDP.
  - arethuza 4y ago
    That's true, but decadal averages don't look quite so good: https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gr.html https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gr.html
    - jjk166 4y ago
      Well yeah, the turning point was close to the end of the last decade

arethuza 4y ago

Are those reductions (which, of course, are a very good thing) actually reflected in the Keeling Curve? https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/ https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/

PheonixPharts 4y ago
People like to get optimistic about accounting tricks, we're in the Eron reality when it comes to climate change. The Keeling curve shows that not only is atmospheric CO2 increasing, but the rate it is increasing is also increasing. The difference between the Keeling curve and all other measures of industrial pollution is that the CO2 in the atmosphere can be directly measured, everything else has to be estimated based on reported figures. It doesn't matter how clever you are in accounting, the atmosphere doesn't care if your reported emissions show progress towards climate goals. The methane situation is even worse[0]. 0. https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_ch4/ https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_ch4/
esoterica 4y ago
The rate of increase in emissions slowing down means that the third derivative of atmospheric carbon is negative. Your chart shows that the second derivative of atmospheric carbon is negative. Both these observations are consistent with each other.
- arethuza 4y ago
  Interestingly article on "Estimating the short-time rate of change in the trend of the Keeling curve": https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-77921-2 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-77921-2
jjk166 4y ago
Yes The highest year-over-year increase in CO2 concentration was 2016-2017, and it's been on a downward trend since. The 2020-2021 increase was 30% smaller than the peak. That's still a lot, about 3X 1970 levels, but if the trend continues at the current rate we should return to 1970 levels in 15 years, and that will be with more than double the world population and 30 times the world GDP.
- arethuza 4y ago
  That's true, but decadal averages don't look quite so good: https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gr.html https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gr.html
  - jjk166 4y ago
    Well yeah, the turning point was close to the end of the last decade