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There's historical evidence that calling something a recession, if it is not, tends to push it into a recession.
by ChrisLomont 4y ago
There's historical evidence that calling something a recession, if it is not, tends to push it into a recession.
- ccvannorman 4y agoThis seems like a great example of anti-data .. do you have any source at all to back this up?
- ChrisLomont 4y agoHere's but one of many papers https://www.jstor.org/stable/29794227 https://www.jstor.org/stable/29794227. Dig through google scholar using terms like "confidence" and "recession" to find many more.
- bluefirebrand 4y agoIt seems unlikely that theres sufficient evidence to claim causality here. Honestly? If you say "we're in a recession" and then it turns out it is or becomes a recession, it sounds like you were right. Not that you caused it.
- ChrisLomont 4y agoHere's but one of many papers https://www.jstor.org/stable/29794227 https://www.jstor.org/stable/29794227. Dig through google scholar using terms like "confidence" and "recession" to find many more.
- checkyoursudo 4y agoThis contradicts my best evidence based on the widespread joke that "economists have predicted nine of the last five recessions." Big, if true.
- ChrisLomont 4y agoHere's but one of many papers https://www.jstor.org/stable/29794227 https://www.jstor.org/stable/29794227. Dig through google scholar using terms like "confidence" and "recession" to find many more.