5 ms·

It's gotten bigger than Greece... if the recovery was intact it would just be the weak countries like Greece that couldn't pay their debts, if the economy dips

It's gotten bigger than Greece... if the recovery was intact it would just be the weak countries like Greece that couldn't pay their debts, if the economy dips then the big countries like Spain and Italy can't either. It turns into a death spiral, the more people panic over the crisis, the worse the economy gets, the more countries are at risk of default. Meanwhile, German economic policy essentially consists of: 1) Tight fiscal policy to crush any signs of a recovery. 2) Tight monetary policy to crush any signs of recovery. 3) Tie yourself to some profligate countries so that you have a cheap exchange rate and can sell s***loads of exports. 4) When the countries you provided vendor finance to start having trouble paying you back insist that they follow 1) and 2). 5) Wonder why everyone hates you. ..."It's a pulley system - you throw everyone over the cliff and let the rope take you higher. But eventually you reach the pulley." http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2011/11/raising-dead-and-axis-of-evil.html http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2011/11/raising-dead-and-axis-... reminds me of Air France 447, the people running the show initially reacted by pushing the stick in the wrong direction, they're still way behind the curve, by the time they react with sufficient force, might be too late, crash of markets, governments defaulting, countries abandoning the Euro.

DuncanIdaho 15y ago
For one I believe that Germans know what they're doing. They might be a little bit too bent on saving Framany's banks - however if these banks drop then Framany drops. If that happens Eurozone has no steering wheel and no engine to get anywhere. So in fact it is essential that in eurozone: 1. Germany and France be saved from the worst. 2. Germany and France beat the other juvenile countries into fiscal submission. 3. The new "germanized" europe lifts itself out of ash. Whatever people think, the whole point of eurozone is "germanization" of Europe. It's not as some people state that Germany is trying to occupy the Europe. The fact is that Europe wants to occupy Germany. Thats the whole point, the whole Europe and its citizenry would like to live in Germany. And Germans know full well what they're doing - I'd even dare to say that they know what they're doing even better than 'mericans. Don't forget that Germany annexed DDR 20 years ago and that DDR was in much worse shape than any of PIIGS. Alo Angela Merkl along with many people in charge, grew up in DDR.
- PedroCandeias 15y ago
  Thats the whole point, the whole Europe and its citizenry would like to live in Germany That couldn't be further from the truth. One of Europe's fundamental problems, actually, is each country's profound dislike for one another. Immigration levels among the developed countries in the EU, which are shockingly low despite there being no actual barriers to transit, demonstrate this. This translates to a lack of cooperation and leadership, which many europeans agree is the true cause of all this trouble.
  - DuncanIdaho 15y ago
    I hope I answered most of your criticism in my post do danieldk.
- danieldk 15y ago
  Thats the whole point, the whole Europe and its citizenry would like to live in Germany. That's nonsense. The German welfare and pension system is really bad compared to e.g. The Netherlands and Scandinavian countries (which are doing fine economically, by the way). Besides that, Germany doesn't even have a minimum wage. To us, Germany means: potentially bad income when you work (no minimum wage), bad income (Harz IV) when you are long-time unemployed, and bad income when you retire (compared to e.g. The Netherlands where you do not only get whatever private pension you build up, but also a decent state pension). Citizens of EU states are free to move to and work in other EU states. So, if your point were true, we'd see lots of immigration to Germany. Which isn't the case.
  - DuncanIdaho 15y ago
    I guess I went wrong when I said Europe instead of European periphery (East and Mediterran, or he so called New Europe). Since the France, Benelux, North and Germanic states (the Old Europe) already share much more of the same values and outlooks towards business and civic responsibilities. And I didn't mean that these peripheral people are all looking to move to Germany and eat Bratwurst and drink Beer, while reciting Goethe and enjoying Shit German Welfare. By the way, calling German welfare bad is absurd and completely a matter of political and personal convictions. Some of our US friends here would call German welfare socialistic and dangerous (?). There are also other reasons why people don't emigrate - language and cultural barrier is key here. Romanians and Bulgars are migrating to Italy, due to language and cultural similarities. Polish are migrating to UK - since new generations apparently speak better English than German, etc. If more people spoke German, then you would see much more emigration to Germany, hell you don't even need to migrate for the most part. Being able to get business connection with Germany going on a personal level is more than enough for one to get going. What I mean is that New Europe would want more of Germany (or Old Europe) in their own countries. And by that I mean an judicial systems that work. Government that actually offers some services beyond employment for the unemployable and privileged. And system where hard working people are protected from scores of predators. This is the gist of problems that Europe is facing currently. As far as Greece, Italy and Spain goes - its not the same as the CDS crisis in US. The problems that led to current state of affairs have been well know for a long time, but have not been acted upon due to ignorance and systemic corruption on the part of these weak countries.
temphn 15y ago
Greece (and Spain, and Italy, etc) spend profligately, Germany is asked to bail them out yet again...and the Germans are the bad guys? I couldn't understand the worldview of the Greeks, but now I realize that the grasshopper -- by its very nature -- hates the ant and always thinks he cheated.
- archangel_one 15y ago
  The Greeks, Spaniards and Italians aren't blameless here, but the point is that the Germans aren't as noble as they like to make out - they have benefited significantly from being a stronger economy in the euro at some expense of the weaker countries.
  - deleted 15y ago
    [deleted]
- RockyMcNuts 15y ago
  Worth keeping in mind that Greece is quite unequal and oligarchical. The oligarchs' game is, to some degree, 1) salt away Euros abroad 2) blame all Greece's problems on Germany and whip up the masses with media they control, 3) have Greece leave the Euro, 4) buy privatized assets on the cheap with their safe Euros while the masses suffer, 5) profit! in particular avoid having to pay all the back taxes they evaded, or pay in devalued drachma. A big part of the issue is lack of solidarity, no one trusts the government, no one wants to pay taxes, no one wants to make the hard choices. But when the government and leadership is seen as out for itself and dysfunctional and the wealthy are inoculated from pain while the average people suffer, then people think they are unfairly asked to sacrifice. (if I may digress, some of this, sadly, is increasingly applicable to the US, including adoption of inflammatory ant/grasshopper rhetoric/posturing. There are a lot of dysfunctional poor subcultures, but also a lot of poor people who work a lot harder than middle and upper classes with little to show for it, limited opportunity to join the middle class, limited access to decent education and health care for their kids When someone is trying to take away what you are accustomed to having, it's quite easy to persuade yourself of their moral degeneracy, whether they are 'dirty hippies', or 'fat cat banksters'. When you have interests to protect, it's quiet easy to find ideologies that make them just and necessary. Politics: A strife of interests masquerading as a contest of principles - Ambrose Bierce)

DuncanIdaho 15y ago

For one I believe that Germans know what they're doing. They might be a little bit too bent on saving Framany's banks - however if these banks drop then Framany drops. If that happens Eurozone has no steering wheel and no engine to get anywhere. So in fact it is essential that in eurozone: 1. Germany and France be saved from the worst. 2. Germany and France beat the other juvenile countries into fiscal submission. 3. The new "germanized" europe lifts itself out of ash. Whatever people think, the whole point of eurozone is "germanization" of Europe. It's not as some people state that Germany is trying to occupy the Europe. The fact is that Europe wants to occupy Germany. Thats the whole point, the whole Europe and its citizenry would like to live in Germany. And Germans know full well what they're doing - I'd even dare to say that they know what they're doing even better than 'mericans. Don't forget that Germany annexed DDR 20 years ago and that DDR was in much worse shape than any of PIIGS. Alo Angela Merkl along with many people in charge, grew up in DDR.

PedroCandeias 15y ago
Thats the whole point, the whole Europe and its citizenry would like to live in Germany That couldn't be further from the truth. One of Europe's fundamental problems, actually, is each country's profound dislike for one another. Immigration levels among the developed countries in the EU, which are shockingly low despite there being no actual barriers to transit, demonstrate this. This translates to a lack of cooperation and leadership, which many europeans agree is the true cause of all this trouble.
- DuncanIdaho 15y ago
  I hope I answered most of your criticism in my post do danieldk.
danieldk 15y ago
Thats the whole point, the whole Europe and its citizenry would like to live in Germany. That's nonsense. The German welfare and pension system is really bad compared to e.g. The Netherlands and Scandinavian countries (which are doing fine economically, by the way). Besides that, Germany doesn't even have a minimum wage. To us, Germany means: potentially bad income when you work (no minimum wage), bad income (Harz IV) when you are long-time unemployed, and bad income when you retire (compared to e.g. The Netherlands where you do not only get whatever private pension you build up, but also a decent state pension). Citizens of EU states are free to move to and work in other EU states. So, if your point were true, we'd see lots of immigration to Germany. Which isn't the case.
- DuncanIdaho 15y ago
  I guess I went wrong when I said Europe instead of European periphery (East and Mediterran, or he so called New Europe). Since the France, Benelux, North and Germanic states (the Old Europe) already share much more of the same values and outlooks towards business and civic responsibilities. And I didn't mean that these peripheral people are all looking to move to Germany and eat Bratwurst and drink Beer, while reciting Goethe and enjoying Shit German Welfare. By the way, calling German welfare bad is absurd and completely a matter of political and personal convictions. Some of our US friends here would call German welfare socialistic and dangerous (?). There are also other reasons why people don't emigrate - language and cultural barrier is key here. Romanians and Bulgars are migrating to Italy, due to language and cultural similarities. Polish are migrating to UK - since new generations apparently speak better English than German, etc. If more people spoke German, then you would see much more emigration to Germany, hell you don't even need to migrate for the most part. Being able to get business connection with Germany going on a personal level is more than enough for one to get going. What I mean is that New Europe would want more of Germany (or Old Europe) in their own countries. And by that I mean an judicial systems that work. Government that actually offers some services beyond employment for the unemployable and privileged. And system where hard working people are protected from scores of predators. This is the gist of problems that Europe is facing currently. As far as Greece, Italy and Spain goes - its not the same as the CDS crisis in US. The problems that led to current state of affairs have been well know for a long time, but have not been acted upon due to ignorance and systemic corruption on the part of these weak countries.

temphn 15y ago

Greece (and Spain, and Italy, etc) spend profligately, Germany is asked to bail them out yet again...and the Germans are the bad guys? I couldn't understand the worldview of the Greeks, but now I realize that the grasshopper -- by its very nature -- hates the ant and always thinks he cheated.

archangel_one 15y ago
The Greeks, Spaniards and Italians aren't blameless here, but the point is that the Germans aren't as noble as they like to make out - they have benefited significantly from being a stronger economy in the euro at some expense of the weaker countries.
- deleted 15y ago
  [deleted]
RockyMcNuts 15y ago
Worth keeping in mind that Greece is quite unequal and oligarchical. The oligarchs' game is, to some degree, 1) salt away Euros abroad 2) blame all Greece's problems on Germany and whip up the masses with media they control, 3) have Greece leave the Euro, 4) buy privatized assets on the cheap with their safe Euros while the masses suffer, 5) profit! in particular avoid having to pay all the back taxes they evaded, or pay in devalued drachma. A big part of the issue is lack of solidarity, no one trusts the government, no one wants to pay taxes, no one wants to make the hard choices. But when the government and leadership is seen as out for itself and dysfunctional and the wealthy are inoculated from pain while the average people suffer, then people think they are unfairly asked to sacrifice. (if I may digress, some of this, sadly, is increasingly applicable to the US, including adoption of inflammatory ant/grasshopper rhetoric/posturing. There are a lot of dysfunctional poor subcultures, but also a lot of poor people who work a lot harder than middle and upper classes with little to show for it, limited opportunity to join the middle class, limited access to decent education and health care for their kids When someone is trying to take away what you are accustomed to having, it's quite easy to persuade yourself of their moral degeneracy, whether they are 'dirty hippies', or 'fat cat banksters'. When you have interests to protect, it's quiet easy to find ideologies that make them just and necessary. Politics: A strife of interests masquerading as a contest of principles - Ambrose Bierce)