I agree with you completely. However, I do think it’s important to point out that the people complaining about risk perceptions are also right but the effort of

I agree with you completely. However, I do think it’s important to point out that the people complaining about risk perceptions are also right but the effort of correcting those perceptions faces the huge headwind of human psychology. Of course people are going to overweight the outcome and underweight the probability when estimating the EV of something - that’s how we work! That’s why Powerball exists!