Wouldn't the classic Bayesian analogy here be you hear a tiger in New York, with the caveat that several dozen of your neighbors have eaten in the past few year

Wouldn't the classic Bayesian analogy here be you hear a tiger in New York, with the caveat that several dozen of your neighbors have eaten in the past few years (https://killedbygoogle.com/ https://killedbygoogle.com/) by a family of the escaped cats from the Bronx Zoo.