It actually wouldn't surprise me that's the main reason GC often outperforms ARC in real- life software - simply because it's only necessary to actually bother

It actually wouldn't surprise me that's the main reason GC often outperforms ARC in real- life software - simply because it's only necessary to actually bother doing GC once memory usage is high and there's a known need to allocate further memory. But couldn't ARC do the same thing in principle - i.e. only bother incrementing/decrementing reference counts when there's likely to be a need to reclaim memory? Even an infinitely running service can just accept it will increase its memory footprint up to a certain threshold then only bother with memory management at that point (I actually suspect SQL server works exactly like this!). For most short-running tools, no MM is required - the OS handles everything.