I saw something the other day that really struck home on this: for any given software technology you encounter, your best estimate is that it's halfway through

I saw something the other day that really struck home on this: for any given software technology you encounter, your best estimate is that it's halfway through its useful lifetime. I know some TED level influencer had some story about basically everything in mail order catalogs from 100 year ago is still for sale somewhere today, so maybe it's wrong, or maybe software is just more prone to vanishing.