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The "western solution" to this is to simply open the immigration taps - the thinking being there's an endless supply of young people from other parts of the wor
by LAC-Tech 4y ago
The "western solution" to this is to simply open the immigration taps - the thinking being there's an endless supply of young people from other parts of the world and you can just siphon some of them off as your new tax base to avoid dealing with the problem.
Except the entire world is having less children and becoming older. 50 years ago India had 5.473 births per women, now they're below replacement rate at 2.19. Even West Africa is declining: fertility rate chart-toppers Niger peaked at 6.762 in '79, they're down to 5.144 today and set to go below replacement rate (2.5) well before this century is out.
- eastbound 4y ago> the thinking being there's an endless supply of young people from other parts of the world and you can just siphon some of them off The assumption is also that the transition towards them can be smooth and that ties are easily replaceable. As far as I know, consistent family ties still play a major role in succeeding at work, even 20 years deep into the adult age.
- strken 4y agoHow is 2.19 births per woman below replacement rate? Do they have a very high number of male children born, or is life expectancy dropping, or something?
- Qem 4y agoA little excess over 2 is necessary, due to the people that end dying before reproductive age.
- dalmo3 4y agoSurely that's factored in in "per woman"?
- naniwaduni 4y agoBut not into "births".
- strken 4y agoTurns out it's "per woman of childbearing age," so thus excludes infant mortality.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- fastball 4y agoMortality before reproduction.
- mythrwy 4y agoOr no reproduction. Not everyone can or will have children.
- guerby 4y agoYou need more than 2.0 to compensate for child to young people death. The replacement rate varies per country, details here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sub-replacement_fertility https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sub-replacement_fertility
- Someone 4y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sub-replacement_fertility https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sub-replacement_fertility: “The United Nations Population Division defines sub-replacement fertility as any rate below approximately 2.1 children born per woman of childbearing age, but the threshold can be as high as 3.4 in some developing countries because of higher mortality rates. Taken globally, the total fertility rate at replacement was 2.33 children per woman in 2003. This can be "translated" as 2 children per woman to replace the parents, plus a "third of a child" to make up for the higher probability of males born and mortality prior to the end of a person's fertile life. In 2020, the average global fertility rate was around 2.4 children born per woman.”