5 ms·

I think there are two trends missing: 1. Immigration. The global worker shortage will result in countries competing for workers. Many young people will move to

I think there are two trends missing: 1. Immigration. The global worker shortage will result in countries competing for workers. Many young people will move to the country that offers the best quality of life. Global wage discrepancies will disappear, and high-tax countries need to justify their high taxes by offering more services to workers. 2. Energy. While in the short run there's an Energy crisis especially in Europe, there is so much money being invested in research that sooner or later new technology will offer an abundance of energy. 20 years may be not enough to reach that state, but energy abundance will have an enormous impact on humanity and even the prospect of it will change thinking.

turing_complete 4y ago
I hope you're right on number 2. We have to make sure that environmentalists don't succeed in demonizing whatever technology comes out on top. Now, at last, many young, educated people, especially with a technical background, are pro-nuclear. So, I am cautiously optimistic.
- vaylian 4y ago
  > We have to make sure that environmentalists don't succeed in demonizing whatever technology comes out on top If (and only if) that technology is a major safety or environmental hazard, then it should receive all the criticism that it deserves.
- _ph_ 4y ago
  While there are of course radical environmentalists whose position often have little to do with actual environment protection, most people wouldn't object to a technology just because it is new. But of course, if it is really bad for the environment, people will rightfully object. And while nuclear is low-carbon, what certainly is of high importance, there are serious environmental concerns. It is not crazy nor demonizing, if you raise those.
blueflow 4y ago
Re: 2. Abundance of energy is never gonna happen. Entropy is a bitch. Its always going to be a struggle.
- drdo 4y ago
  The Sun is going to last a few billion years, we can worry about entropy later.
  - blueflow 4y ago
    You are misunderstanding me if you jump to that specific little application of entropy. Entropy is like a thing every-time, including right now. It sort of guarantees us that there isn't much free potential energy laying around our planet.
    - drdo 4y ago
      The planet has a constant supply of an incredible amount of energy from the Sun. Most forms of energy we can tap into can be traced back to the Sun, except for maybe nuclear.
      - blueflow 4y ago
        Then try to use it! Its an uphill battle against the second law of thermodynamics. Thus no abundance, ever.
brabel 4y ago
> 1. Immigration. Hm... I think in Australia this is old news and doesn't even deserve a mention on a paper talking about future trends... every year Australia gets hundreds of thousands of immigrants, mostly highly skilled people, and this has been going on for several decades (see https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/AUS/australia/immigration-statistics https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/AUS/australia/immigrat... - "migrant population" has gone from 1.7 million in 1960 to almost 7 million in 2015, or 28% of the total population...)! Australia used to advertise heavily for people to come to study and work in Australia (not sure if that's still going on lately... I myself migrated there decades ago but left since - though may come back one day).
saiya-jin 4y ago
First point is gibberish, we are heading towards global recession so last thing affected countries will want to do is pour hundreds of thousands of people completely out of touch with given country and its customs and history, often not knowing language well and their skills are OK only on paper. Every country is and will be citizen-first. Wage discrepancies disappearing is another wishful thinking, I don't think you understand where it comes from. Yes the differences will possibly become smaller if current trend will continue. Other than that it can go in any way, and we're talking more on scale of centuries here. More likely will be accelerated brain drain into mega cities who will offer more quality of life (ie less pollution, faster better public transport etc.) so rural areas will be more rural. Everybody will be renting. For every digital nomad settling there, there is 10 folks going the opposite way for work that can't be remoted or simply because they like it in the city more.
- tjansen 4y ago
  > we are heading towards global recession Possibly, but I don't think it will last 20 years. Also, a recession could make people from worse affected areas move to those that are less affected. >completely out of touch with given country and its customs and history I think that is the main factor that is diminishing. Young people today are better suited to move to another country than 20 years ago, and there is no reason why this development shouldn't continue. >Wage discrepancies disappearing is another wishful thinking Disappearing wage discrepancies are a consequence of increased mobility (and, to a certain degree, greater acceptance of remote work, even though there are still lots of hurdles for remote work across countries and even more so across continents). >More likely will be accelerated brain drain into mega cities who will offer more quality of life I wouldn't bet on this. The possibility of remote work, more digital entertainment options and autonomous vehicles will make rural or suburban areas more attractive for many people.

turing_complete 4y ago

I hope you're right on number 2. We have to make sure that environmentalists don't succeed in demonizing whatever technology comes out on top. Now, at last, many young, educated people, especially with a technical background, are pro-nuclear. So, I am cautiously optimistic.

vaylian 4y ago
> We have to make sure that environmentalists don't succeed in demonizing whatever technology comes out on top If (and only if) that technology is a major safety or environmental hazard, then it should receive all the criticism that it deserves.
_ph_ 4y ago
While there are of course radical environmentalists whose position often have little to do with actual environment protection, most people wouldn't object to a technology just because it is new. But of course, if it is really bad for the environment, people will rightfully object. And while nuclear is low-carbon, what certainly is of high importance, there are serious environmental concerns. It is not crazy nor demonizing, if you raise those.

blueflow 4y ago

Re: 2. Abundance of energy is never gonna happen. Entropy is a bitch. Its always going to be a struggle.

drdo 4y ago
The Sun is going to last a few billion years, we can worry about entropy later.
- blueflow 4y ago
  You are misunderstanding me if you jump to that specific little application of entropy. Entropy is like a thing every-time, including right now. It sort of guarantees us that there isn't much free potential energy laying around our planet.
  - drdo 4y ago
    The planet has a constant supply of an incredible amount of energy from the Sun. Most forms of energy we can tap into can be traced back to the Sun, except for maybe nuclear.
    - blueflow 4y ago
      Then try to use it! Its an uphill battle against the second law of thermodynamics. Thus no abundance, ever.

brabel 4y ago

> 1. Immigration. Hm... I think in Australia this is old news and doesn't even deserve a mention on a paper talking about future trends... every year Australia gets hundreds of thousands of immigrants, mostly highly skilled people, and this has been going on for several decades (see https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/AUS/australia/immigration-statistics https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/AUS/australia/immigrat... - "migrant population" has gone from 1.7 million in 1960 to almost 7 million in 2015, or 28% of the total population...)! Australia used to advertise heavily for people to come to study and work in Australia (not sure if that's still going on lately... I myself migrated there decades ago but left since - though may come back one day).

saiya-jin 4y ago

First point is gibberish, we are heading towards global recession so last thing affected countries will want to do is pour hundreds of thousands of people completely out of touch with given country and its customs and history, often not knowing language well and their skills are OK only on paper. Every country is and will be citizen-first. Wage discrepancies disappearing is another wishful thinking, I don't think you understand where it comes from. Yes the differences will possibly become smaller if current trend will continue. Other than that it can go in any way, and we're talking more on scale of centuries here. More likely will be accelerated brain drain into mega cities who will offer more quality of life (ie less pollution, faster better public transport etc.) so rural areas will be more rural. Everybody will be renting. For every digital nomad settling there, there is 10 folks going the opposite way for work that can't be remoted or simply because they like it in the city more.

tjansen 4y ago
> we are heading towards global recession Possibly, but I don't think it will last 20 years. Also, a recession could make people from worse affected areas move to those that are less affected. >completely out of touch with given country and its customs and history I think that is the main factor that is diminishing. Young people today are better suited to move to another country than 20 years ago, and there is no reason why this development shouldn't continue. >Wage discrepancies disappearing is another wishful thinking Disappearing wage discrepancies are a consequence of increased mobility (and, to a certain degree, greater acceptance of remote work, even though there are still lots of hurdles for remote work across countries and even more so across continents). >More likely will be accelerated brain drain into mega cities who will offer more quality of life I wouldn't bet on this. The possibility of remote work, more digital entertainment options and autonomous vehicles will make rural or suburban areas more attractive for many people.