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The ageing population only becomes an issue once the ageing population reaches retirement age and can't participate in the work force. Even though there is alre

The ageing population only becomes an issue once the ageing population reaches retirement age and can't participate in the work force. Even though there is already a shortage of workers in Germany, it is expected to get worse in the next decades.

tuatoru 4y ago
Yes. check out Japan: its workforce problem will peak around 2038 according to the UN Pop estimate[1]. 1. https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Pyramid/392 https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Pyr... Move the slider at the top to 2038.
pcrh 4y ago
The survival curve of Western populations is "squaring", i.e. the age of the oldest is not increasing as much as the average age. You can see this effect for England and Wales in the graphic below [0]. So the extent of the "problem" (if it is one) will not continue to increase at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. [0] https://i.imgur.com/ONRm4Ep.jpg https://i.imgur.com/ONRm4Ep.jpg
- lifeisstillgood 4y ago
  I am not quite sure what this is saying. It seems to be that 'years ago most people died before 60, now most people live to 80, in theory everyone will live to same age then die' But I am not sure how having more people live to 80 will improve the demographic situation if the total number of young people is less than the number of old
  - pcrh 4y ago
    It implies that the "burden" of an ageing population is capped, i.e. the rate of the increase in the elderly proportion of the population will slow down from about 2030. In fact it already seems to be occurring, with several countries reporting that they are no longer seeing gains in live expectancy, for example "The big slowdown: 6 reasons why UK life expectancy growth is stalling" https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23931920-100-the-big-slowdown-6-reasons-why-uk-life-expectancy-growth-is-stalling/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23931920-100-the-big-...
    - lifeisstillgood 4y ago
      But is the burden due to ever increasing age, or rather due to ratio of young to old? I think I am asking that if the ratio caps out at 1:1 (or if I understood Hans Rosling, there will eventually be equal sized aged cohorts (same number of young, middle aged and old people), is that ratio sustainable? Can we actually have the 20-60 aged people support the 0-20 and 60-80 cohorts? Sadly it seems we won't have to deal with immortality for a while yet!
      - pcrh 4y ago
        As to the issue of sustainability, Japan seems to be answering that question (so far): yes it is sustainable.

tuatoru 4y ago

Yes. check out Japan: its workforce problem will peak around 2038 according to the UN Pop estimate[1]. 1. https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Pyramid/392 https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Pyr... Move the slider at the top to 2038.

pcrh 4y ago

The survival curve of Western populations is "squaring", i.e. the age of the oldest is not increasing as much as the average age. You can see this effect for England and Wales in the graphic below [0]. So the extent of the "problem" (if it is one) will not continue to increase at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. [0] https://i.imgur.com/ONRm4Ep.jpg https://i.imgur.com/ONRm4Ep.jpg

lifeisstillgood 4y ago
I am not quite sure what this is saying. It seems to be that 'years ago most people died before 60, now most people live to 80, in theory everyone will live to same age then die' But I am not sure how having more people live to 80 will improve the demographic situation if the total number of young people is less than the number of old
- pcrh 4y ago
  It implies that the "burden" of an ageing population is capped, i.e. the rate of the increase in the elderly proportion of the population will slow down from about 2030. In fact it already seems to be occurring, with several countries reporting that they are no longer seeing gains in live expectancy, for example "The big slowdown: 6 reasons why UK life expectancy growth is stalling" https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23931920-100-the-big-slowdown-6-reasons-why-uk-life-expectancy-growth-is-stalling/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23931920-100-the-big-...
  - lifeisstillgood 4y ago
    But is the burden due to ever increasing age, or rather due to ratio of young to old? I think I am asking that if the ratio caps out at 1:1 (or if I understood Hans Rosling, there will eventually be equal sized aged cohorts (same number of young, middle aged and old people), is that ratio sustainable? Can we actually have the 20-60 aged people support the 0-20 and 60-80 cohorts? Sadly it seems we won't have to deal with immortality for a while yet!
    - pcrh 4y ago
      As to the issue of sustainability, Japan seems to be answering that question (so far): yes it is sustainable.