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An ageing population is sometimes axiomatically considered to be a problem. However, Japan, S. Korea and Germany do not appear to be suffering from a lack of GD

by pcrh 4y ago

An ageing population is sometimes axiomatically considered to be a problem. However, Japan, S. Korea and Germany do not appear to be suffering from a lack of GDP growth compared to the OECD as a whole. Perhaps a growing productivity per worker is able to compensate for fewer workers? Indeed, there may be advantages to declining populations, such as reduced environmental pressures and reduced demand for housing...

zx8080 4y ago
lazyjones 4y ago
As GDP includes earnings from investments in foreign countries (which at least Germany does plenty of), this is a somewhat moot point.
tjansen 4y ago
The ageing population only becomes an issue once the ageing population reaches retirement age and can't participate in the work force. Even though there is already a shortage of workers in Germany, it is expected to get worse in the next decades.
- tuatoru 4y ago
  Yes. check out Japan: its workforce problem will peak around 2038 according to the UN Pop estimate[1]. 1. https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Pyramid/392 https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Pyr... Move the slider at the top to 2038.
- pcrh 4y ago
  The survival curve of Western populations is "squaring", i.e. the age of the oldest is not increasing as much as the average age. You can see this effect for England and Wales in the graphic below [0]. So the extent of the "problem" (if it is one) will not continue to increase at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. [0] https://i.imgur.com/ONRm4Ep.jpg https://i.imgur.com/ONRm4Ep.jpg
  - lifeisstillgood 4y ago
    I am not quite sure what this is saying. It seems to be that 'years ago most people died before 60, now most people live to 80, in theory everyone will live to same age then die' But I am not sure how having more people live to 80 will improve the demographic situation if the total number of young people is less than the number of old
    - pcrh 4y ago
      It implies that the "burden" of an ageing population is capped, i.e. the rate of the increase in the elderly proportion of the population will slow down from about 2030. In fact it already seems to be occurring, with several countries reporting that they are no longer seeing gains in live expectancy, for example "The big slowdown: 6 reasons why UK life expectancy growth is stalling" https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23931920-100-the-big-slowdown-6-reasons-why-uk-life-expectancy-growth-is-stalling/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23931920-100-the-big-...
      - lifeisstillgood 4y ago
        But is the burden due to ever increasing age, or rather due to ratio of young to old? I think I am asking that if the ratio caps out at 1:1 (or if I understood Hans Rosling, there will eventually be equal sized aged cohorts (same number of young, middle aged and old people), is that ratio sustainable? Can we actually have the 20-60 aged people support the 0-20 and 60-80 cohorts? Sadly it seems we won't have to deal with immortality for a while yet!
        pcrh 4y ago
        As to the issue of sustainability, Japan seems to be answering that question (so far): yes it is sustainable.
LAC-Tech 4y ago
The "western solution" to this is to simply open the immigration taps - the thinking being there's an endless supply of young people from other parts of the world and you can just siphon some of them off as your new tax base to avoid dealing with the problem. Except the entire world is having less children and becoming older. 50 years ago India had 5.473 births per women, now they're below replacement rate at 2.19. Even West Africa is declining: fertility rate chart-toppers Niger peaked at 6.762 in '79, they're down to 5.144 today and set to go below replacement rate (2.5) well before this century is out.
- eastbound 4y ago
  > the thinking being there's an endless supply of young people from other parts of the world and you can just siphon some of them off The assumption is also that the transition towards them can be smooth and that ties are easily replaceable. As far as I know, consistent family ties still play a major role in succeeding at work, even 20 years deep into the adult age.
- strken 4y ago
  How is 2.19 births per woman below replacement rate? Do they have a very high number of male children born, or is life expectancy dropping, or something?
  - Qem 4y ago
    A little excess over 2 is necessary, due to the people that end dying before reproductive age.
    - dalmo3 4y ago
      Surely that's factored in in "per woman"?
      - naniwaduni 4y ago
        But not into "births".
gizmo 4y ago
Germany is unusual because they are enormous net exporters. Not every country can be a net exporter. When you have an aging population the ratio of working people to elderly people will shift radically. Healthcare expenses ratchet up every year, crowding out other government expenditures. It's not a recipe for a healthy economy. And it's not easy to invest in the future when older people outnumber younger people and are more likely to vote and lobby for their (class) interest. You need a lot of innovation to compensate for these secular headwinds.

by pcrh 4y ago

zx8080 4y ago

lazyjones 4y ago

As GDP includes earnings from investments in foreign countries (which at least Germany does plenty of), this is a somewhat moot point.

tjansen 4y ago

The ageing population only becomes an issue once the ageing population reaches retirement age and can't participate in the work force. Even though there is already a shortage of workers in Germany, it is expected to get worse in the next decades.

tuatoru 4y ago
Yes. check out Japan: its workforce problem will peak around 2038 according to the UN Pop estimate[1]. 1. https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Pyramid/392 https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Pyr... Move the slider at the top to 2038.
pcrh 4y ago
The survival curve of Western populations is "squaring", i.e. the age of the oldest is not increasing as much as the average age. You can see this effect for England and Wales in the graphic below [0]. So the extent of the "problem" (if it is one) will not continue to increase at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. [0] https://i.imgur.com/ONRm4Ep.jpg https://i.imgur.com/ONRm4Ep.jpg
- lifeisstillgood 4y ago
  I am not quite sure what this is saying. It seems to be that 'years ago most people died before 60, now most people live to 80, in theory everyone will live to same age then die' But I am not sure how having more people live to 80 will improve the demographic situation if the total number of young people is less than the number of old
  - pcrh 4y ago
    It implies that the "burden" of an ageing population is capped, i.e. the rate of the increase in the elderly proportion of the population will slow down from about 2030. In fact it already seems to be occurring, with several countries reporting that they are no longer seeing gains in live expectancy, for example "The big slowdown: 6 reasons why UK life expectancy growth is stalling" https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23931920-100-the-big-slowdown-6-reasons-why-uk-life-expectancy-growth-is-stalling/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23931920-100-the-big-...
    - lifeisstillgood 4y ago
      But is the burden due to ever increasing age, or rather due to ratio of young to old? I think I am asking that if the ratio caps out at 1:1 (or if I understood Hans Rosling, there will eventually be equal sized aged cohorts (same number of young, middle aged and old people), is that ratio sustainable? Can we actually have the 20-60 aged people support the 0-20 and 60-80 cohorts? Sadly it seems we won't have to deal with immortality for a while yet!
      - pcrh 4y ago
        As to the issue of sustainability, Japan seems to be answering that question (so far): yes it is sustainable.

LAC-Tech 4y ago

The "western solution" to this is to simply open the immigration taps - the thinking being there's an endless supply of young people from other parts of the world and you can just siphon some of them off as your new tax base to avoid dealing with the problem. Except the entire world is having less children and becoming older. 50 years ago India had 5.473 births per women, now they're below replacement rate at 2.19. Even West Africa is declining: fertility rate chart-toppers Niger peaked at 6.762 in '79, they're down to 5.144 today and set to go below replacement rate (2.5) well before this century is out.

eastbound 4y ago
> the thinking being there's an endless supply of young people from other parts of the world and you can just siphon some of them off The assumption is also that the transition towards them can be smooth and that ties are easily replaceable. As far as I know, consistent family ties still play a major role in succeeding at work, even 20 years deep into the adult age.
strken 4y ago
How is 2.19 births per woman below replacement rate? Do they have a very high number of male children born, or is life expectancy dropping, or something?
- Qem 4y ago
  A little excess over 2 is necessary, due to the people that end dying before reproductive age.
  - dalmo3 4y ago
    Surely that's factored in in "per woman"?
    - naniwaduni 4y ago
      But not into "births".

gizmo 4y ago

Germany is unusual because they are enormous net exporters. Not every country can be a net exporter. When you have an aging population the ratio of working people to elderly people will shift radically. Healthcare expenses ratchet up every year, crowding out other government expenditures. It's not a recipe for a healthy economy. And it's not easy to invest in the future when older people outnumber younger people and are more likely to vote and lobby for their (class) interest. You need a lot of innovation to compensate for these secular headwinds.