8 ms·

Seven megatrends that will shape the next 20 years

43 points by Manheim 4y ago

egberts1 4y ago
Shorter HN: generalized global goals remain largely unchanged, decades after decades.
napolux 4y ago
Internet archive link: https://web.archive.org/web/20220726223809/https://www.csiro.au/en/news/news-releases/2022/seven-megatrends-that-will-shape-the-next-20-years https://web.archive.org/web/20220726223809/https://www.csiro...
lnsru 4y ago
Question for Australians: what about population aging? I believe it will be huge problem in Germany. Is Australia doing fine with this?
- lbriner 4y ago
  Agreed. A big problem in the UK. People retire too early for their life expectancy today so massive pressur eon Pension pots, lots of pressure on Nursing Homes, particularly those provided by the state that will cost more, in some circumstances, than the guest has paid in taxes in their entire life. Also, lots of issues with beds in hospitals that are full of the elderly with all kinds of old-age medical issues but who might not be dischargeable until there is some kind of assisted care available. I can't see there is any obvious solution other than raising retirement age and even having our National Insurance system more like real Insurance where the costs reflect the risks so that Joe Public realise how much healthcare actually costs.
  - j7ake 4y ago
    Opening up immigration for young people abroad to aging countries would also rebalance the age distribution. Uk seems to be going backwards on that front.
  - fuzzy2 4y ago
    I don’t see how raising the retirement age would solve anything (except making the early retirement deduction higher, if that’s a thing where you are). Just because people live longer doesn’t mean they’re fit to work longer. Or could even find work in the first place.
    - wahern 4y ago
      > Just because people live longer doesn’t mean they’re fit to work longer. That's true as a matter of logic, independent on any other information. But we have other information, at least in the U.S., and that information is that the percentage of people 65+ working has more than doubled since 1985, a trend that seems to be quite steady through the decades. Moreover, there's a trend of people 65+ individually working more hours. Even if these trends magically stopped today, the fact remains that there are substantial fiscal improvements that could be had by restoring the status quo ante regarding actual retirement age in practice and legal qualifications for retirement benefits. Sources: https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/americans-working-past-65/ https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/americans-working-past-6..., https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/06/20/more-older-americans-are-working-and-working-more-than-they-used-to/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/06/20/more-older-..., https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=s2301&tid=ACSST1Y2010.S2301 https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=s2301&tid=ACSST1Y2010...
- docdeek 4y ago
  Ex-pat Australian - maybe Australia is slightly less worse off than Germany when it comes to an aging population. Quick Googling suggests Australia’s +65 year old population is expected to be about 25% by the 2050s [1] while Wiki suggests Germany in about the same period is expected to be about 37/38% [2]. It’s something that has been discussed in Australia for decades but the country still seems to be less impacted than Germany and some other European countries right now. 1: https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/3222.0Main%20Features12006%20to%202101 https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/32... 2: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ageing_of_Europe#Germany https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ageing_of_Europe#Germany
- freefrog334433 4y ago
  Unfortunately Australia has the highest rate of immigration amongst developed countries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_by_country#Oceania https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_by_country#Oceania Government fiscal policy appears to be 'just add people' instead of anything clever. I say this is unfortunate, because more people are being affected by climate change as housing extends into flood plain (esp. Western Sydney) and larger rural town are affected by drought (Dubbo almost ran out of water). The housing market was also out of control.
spullara 4y ago
"One in five Australians report high or very high levels of psychological distress". This is probably caused by people making insanely hyperbolic lists about the future.
- bschne 4y ago
  While some of the measurement methods can be debated, pretty much all mental health metrics down to medication prescriptions I've seen over the last few years can best be described as "alarming". I don't have very substantiated or strong opinions as to what's causing it, I don't know if we're just better at treating stuff people would have had to just soldier through 100+ years ago, but it gives me a weird feeling about the world.
- JetAlone 4y ago
  I'd say it's more than that. These lists aren't hurting us. I think caused by the kind of people who write or give heavy credence to these to kinds of insanely hyperbolic lists about the future employing the authority to do stuff like: -Push to tell you when you need to wear what -That you need to put something in your body -Say whether you can/should go outside -If you can have what job -Whether you can do business -Whether you can travel And if it's not you, it's someone you know and love and care about. Perhaps you have nobody you know or love or care about due to atomization and then the source of the distress would be obvious. It's further caused by the fact that this willingness to employ the authority at the state, employer, and organizational level is active all the world over, and isn't going away. You can agree with the authority's reasoning, you can value the importance of public health and sustainability. You can trust these authorities deeply. You can vocally champion the authority's legitimacy. It won't erase the pressure's effect on you emotionally and spiritually underneath all that. I say this as I struggle to cope with the fact that in my personal life an local authority figure who I love and respect and overwhelmingly agree with is becoming more authoritarian. Authority doesn't stop taking territory from us, in pursuit of its vision for growth and success. It doesn't relinquish control. That's a ratchet that won't go back and stay back without breaking it. Authority will go as far as dehumanizing you, and openly mismanaging your resources if it feels doing so is a safe way to prove a point of its own victorious supremacy over you. What I'm experiencing is that when you live under a growing authority who holds your community in grasp, here's what will happen: doubts, fear and despair will threaten to rule your heart. It's really hard to be strong to that. Some people can't seem to do it on their own, and need each other's help and the help of those who love them unconditionally. Because authority and its figures will too often act as if they love you, only conditionally. Legalistic authority is deeply scared of how border-transcending solidarity and love resurge from the darkest depths of death. Take care, to all of you. You're built to love and be loved, even if you absolutely hate this post.
tuatoru 4y ago
The TLDR for those who read the comments first (or only), the seven themes summarised and paraphrased:- 1. Adapting to climate change (weather volatility and extremes). 2. Resource constraints: more recycling, plant proteins over meat, net zero/renewable energy taking over. (So lower coal and natural gas exports and domestic use, possibly lower meat exports.) [Water constraints not mentioned in the presser. Wheat and rice exports are threatened.] 3. Escalating health problems (psychological; infectious disease (due to climate change); antibiotic ineffectiveness). [Aging not mentioned here.] 4. Geopolitical shifts. Increased "defense" (i.e. military) spending; more cybercrime [by state-supported actors implied]. Lower willingness to engage in rules-based international trade. 5. Tele-everything: telework, telehealth. Also crypto. 6. AI/internet of things. 7. Decreasing citizen trust in the political class and institutions; increasing internal unrest. As Insru noted, population aging is absent. Australia is fairly old as a population (although not up there with Japan, South Korea, and Germany) and aging fairly quickly. Historically it has attracted immigrants to bolster its workforce; this policy is meeting increaasing resistance.
pcrh 4y ago
An ageing population is sometimes axiomatically considered to be a problem. However, Japan, S. Korea and Germany do not appear to be suffering from a lack of GDP growth compared to the OECD as a whole. Perhaps a growing productivity per worker is able to compensate for fewer workers? Indeed, there may be advantages to declining populations, such as reduced environmental pressures and reduced demand for housing...
- zx8080 4y ago
- lazyjones 4y ago
  As GDP includes earnings from investments in foreign countries (which at least Germany does plenty of), this is a somewhat moot point.
- tjansen 4y ago
  The ageing population only becomes an issue once the ageing population reaches retirement age and can't participate in the work force. Even though there is already a shortage of workers in Germany, it is expected to get worse in the next decades.
  - tuatoru 4y ago
    Yes. check out Japan: its workforce problem will peak around 2038 according to the UN Pop estimate[1]. 1. https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Pyramid/392 https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Pyr... Move the slider at the top to 2038.
  - pcrh 4y ago
    The survival curve of Western populations is "squaring", i.e. the age of the oldest is not increasing as much as the average age. You can see this effect for England and Wales in the graphic below [0]. So the extent of the "problem" (if it is one) will not continue to increase at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. [0] https://i.imgur.com/ONRm4Ep.jpg https://i.imgur.com/ONRm4Ep.jpg
tjansen 4y ago
I think there are two trends missing: 1. Immigration. The global worker shortage will result in countries competing for workers. Many young people will move to the country that offers the best quality of life. Global wage discrepancies will disappear, and high-tax countries need to justify their high taxes by offering more services to workers. 2. Energy. While in the short run there's an Energy crisis especially in Europe, there is so much money being invested in research that sooner or later new technology will offer an abundance of energy. 20 years may be not enough to reach that state, but energy abundance will have an enormous impact on humanity and even the prospect of it will change thinking.
- turing_complete 4y ago
  I hope you're right on number 2. We have to make sure that environmentalists don't succeed in demonizing whatever technology comes out on top. Now, at last, many young, educated people, especially with a technical background, are pro-nuclear. So, I am cautiously optimistic.
  - vaylian 4y ago
    > We have to make sure that environmentalists don't succeed in demonizing whatever technology comes out on top If (and only if) that technology is a major safety or environmental hazard, then it should receive all the criticism that it deserves.
  - _ph_ 4y ago
    While there are of course radical environmentalists whose position often have little to do with actual environment protection, most people wouldn't object to a technology just because it is new. But of course, if it is really bad for the environment, people will rightfully object. And while nuclear is low-carbon, what certainly is of high importance, there are serious environmental concerns. It is not crazy nor demonizing, if you raise those.
- blueflow 4y ago
  Re: 2. Abundance of energy is never gonna happen. Entropy is a bitch. Its always going to be a struggle.
LAC-Tech 4y ago
Funny to see something from CSIRO on HN. I have an indirect connection with them (client wanted to integrate with one of the tech companies they sponsor). Agree with most of their list, save 7 - they've made a diagnosis but think there's still a cure. I don't and reckon it's probably worthwhile to start thinking about a peaceful path forward when public trust reaches critically low levels, rather than letting something happen "spontaneously".
gonzo41 4y ago
Larry Marshal gave a pretty good speech at the National Press Club to release this report. If you listen close, he talks about being at the beach in the future, when the beach now starts a few streets back from where it is today. You then get a message from your watch that lets you know you've gotten to much heat exposure and need to cool down. So you take a swim. I found some of the imagery pretty sad to be honest. I think it was lost on the journalists in the room what he was saying. Wet Bulb temperatures are going to kill people all the time. So much so, that being at the beach may be lethal. And anyone who owns land on the beach is going to not own land anymore in the future. Also I'll be 150 before aggressive actions today results in a better climate, so.... I hope Australian can take the opportunity up to become a renewable super power. Seems like we'll just be leaving money on the table if we don't.
poulsbohemian 4y ago
This is an important list, but water is perhaps the single most important point of focus for the future. Places are legit having water shortages all over the world and population+heat+private corps trying to buy up rights+misallocation means it's going to be a big effing deal.
brabel 4y ago
> the pandemic-fuelled a boom in digitisation, with teleworking, telehealth, online shopping and digital currencies becoming mainstream. Forty percent of Australians now work remotely on a regular basis and the future demand for digital workers expected to increase by 79% from 2020 to 2025. Is there any actual evidence digital currencies are "becoming mainstream" or they just threw that in because it sounds cool? I still see zero use for digital currencies despite initially trying to be an early adopter, but all I saw since then was digital currencies being used as "investments" like any shares, not as actual currencies.
- gizmo 4y ago
  Reports like these are written for clueless people who want to sound smart and "with it". When you're the CEO of a company that manufactures bathroom tiles still you're expected to have opinions about the future of big data and on how artificial intelligence will disrupt your industry. It's a pretty safe bet that the most transformative changes in the next 20 years won't be any of those listed here.
- mattmanser 4y ago
  No, and they're wrong about online shopping too. Even in the middle of the pandemic, internet shopping never went above 40% of purchasing. https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/timeseries/j4mc/drsi https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindust... And as you can see, while it had a spike during the pandemic, it's roughly back to where it would be expected to be, growing, but the pandemic seemingly had no lasting impact.
  - Someone 4y ago
    The only statement about online shopping I find on that page is “online shopping […] becoming mainstream”. Eyeballing that chart, if it’s at around 20% now and growing about one percentage point each year, it will be at 40% in 20 years time. I would call that mainstream.
    - mattmanser 4y ago
narrator 4y ago
I've been studying the WEF lately and it seems they've seized the creative vision of all futurists. These 7 goals all seem like they're just a rehash of the WEF vision even talking about ESG by name. Can't somebody go somewhere that's a bit more gonzo please? Maybe it's just that the WEF have so much money and power that everyone academic thinking about the future is drawn to their vision because it's so lucrative. Where's the update to cyberpunk or this generation's Phillip K. Dick or John Brunner?
- waihtis 4y ago
  Moreso, thinking the WEF are some kind of visionary force is equivalent to thinking IBM will create the next killer application
rednerrus 4y ago
I haven't seen the list yet but if demographic shift/collapse isn't at the top of the list, I'm skeptical.
clarge1120 4y ago
There is a growing trend that could upset/cancel every one of these megatrends: nationalism. The world is currently in a power struggle between nationalist and globalist concerns. If the globalists manage to stem the tide of nationalism, then these trends make sense. Otherwise, the next 20 years will see trends that don't show up on this list such as a shift in imperial power from West to East.

43 points by Manheim 4y ago

Shorter HN: generalized global goals remain largely unchanged, decades after decades.

Internet archive link: https://web.archive.org/web/20220726223809/https://www.csiro.au/en/news/news-releases/2022/seven-megatrends-that-will-shape-the-next-20-years https://web.archive.org/web/20220726223809/https://www.csiro...

lnsru 4y ago

Question for Australians: what about population aging? I believe it will be huge problem in Germany. Is Australia doing fine with this?

lbriner 4y ago
Agreed. A big problem in the UK. People retire too early for their life expectancy today so massive pressur eon Pension pots, lots of pressure on Nursing Homes, particularly those provided by the state that will cost more, in some circumstances, than the guest has paid in taxes in their entire life. Also, lots of issues with beds in hospitals that are full of the elderly with all kinds of old-age medical issues but who might not be dischargeable until there is some kind of assisted care available. I can't see there is any obvious solution other than raising retirement age and even having our National Insurance system more like real Insurance where the costs reflect the risks so that Joe Public realise how much healthcare actually costs.
- j7ake 4y ago
  Opening up immigration for young people abroad to aging countries would also rebalance the age distribution. Uk seems to be going backwards on that front.
- fuzzy2 4y ago
  I don’t see how raising the retirement age would solve anything (except making the early retirement deduction higher, if that’s a thing where you are). Just because people live longer doesn’t mean they’re fit to work longer. Or could even find work in the first place.
  - wahern 4y ago
    > Just because people live longer doesn’t mean they’re fit to work longer. That's true as a matter of logic, independent on any other information. But we have other information, at least in the U.S., and that information is that the percentage of people 65+ working has more than doubled since 1985, a trend that seems to be quite steady through the decades. Moreover, there's a trend of people 65+ individually working more hours. Even if these trends magically stopped today, the fact remains that there are substantial fiscal improvements that could be had by restoring the status quo ante regarding actual retirement age in practice and legal qualifications for retirement benefits. Sources: https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/americans-working-past-65/ https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/americans-working-past-6..., https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/06/20/more-older-americans-are-working-and-working-more-than-they-used-to/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/06/20/more-older-..., https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=s2301&tid=ACSST1Y2010.S2301 https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=s2301&tid=ACSST1Y2010...
docdeek 4y ago
Ex-pat Australian - maybe Australia is slightly less worse off than Germany when it comes to an aging population. Quick Googling suggests Australia’s +65 year old population is expected to be about 25% by the 2050s [1] while Wiki suggests Germany in about the same period is expected to be about 37/38% [2]. It’s something that has been discussed in Australia for decades but the country still seems to be less impacted than Germany and some other European countries right now. 1: https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/3222.0Main%20Features12006%20to%202101 https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/32... 2: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ageing_of_Europe#Germany https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ageing_of_Europe#Germany
freefrog334433 4y ago
Unfortunately Australia has the highest rate of immigration amongst developed countries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_by_country#Oceania https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_by_country#Oceania Government fiscal policy appears to be 'just add people' instead of anything clever. I say this is unfortunate, because more people are being affected by climate change as housing extends into flood plain (esp. Western Sydney) and larger rural town are affected by drought (Dubbo almost ran out of water). The housing market was also out of control.

spullara 4y ago

"One in five Australians report high or very high levels of psychological distress". This is probably caused by people making insanely hyperbolic lists about the future.

bschne 4y ago
While some of the measurement methods can be debated, pretty much all mental health metrics down to medication prescriptions I've seen over the last few years can best be described as "alarming". I don't have very substantiated or strong opinions as to what's causing it, I don't know if we're just better at treating stuff people would have had to just soldier through 100+ years ago, but it gives me a weird feeling about the world.
JetAlone 4y ago
I'd say it's more than that. These lists aren't hurting us. I think caused by the kind of people who write or give heavy credence to these to kinds of insanely hyperbolic lists about the future employing the authority to do stuff like: -Push to tell you when you need to wear what -That you need to put something in your body -Say whether you can/should go outside -If you can have what job -Whether you can do business -Whether you can travel And if it's not you, it's someone you know and love and care about. Perhaps you have nobody you know or love or care about due to atomization and then the source of the distress would be obvious. It's further caused by the fact that this willingness to employ the authority at the state, employer, and organizational level is active all the world over, and isn't going away. You can agree with the authority's reasoning, you can value the importance of public health and sustainability. You can trust these authorities deeply. You can vocally champion the authority's legitimacy. It won't erase the pressure's effect on you emotionally and spiritually underneath all that. I say this as I struggle to cope with the fact that in my personal life an local authority figure who I love and respect and overwhelmingly agree with is becoming more authoritarian. Authority doesn't stop taking territory from us, in pursuit of its vision for growth and success. It doesn't relinquish control. That's a ratchet that won't go back and stay back without breaking it. Authority will go as far as dehumanizing you, and openly mismanaging your resources if it feels doing so is a safe way to prove a point of its own victorious supremacy over you. What I'm experiencing is that when you live under a growing authority who holds your community in grasp, here's what will happen: doubts, fear and despair will threaten to rule your heart. It's really hard to be strong to that. Some people can't seem to do it on their own, and need each other's help and the help of those who love them unconditionally. Because authority and its figures will too often act as if they love you, only conditionally. Legalistic authority is deeply scared of how border-transcending solidarity and love resurge from the darkest depths of death. Take care, to all of you. You're built to love and be loved, even if you absolutely hate this post.

tuatoru 4y ago

The TLDR for those who read the comments first (or only), the seven themes summarised and paraphrased:- 1. Adapting to climate change (weather volatility and extremes). 2. Resource constraints: more recycling, plant proteins over meat, net zero/renewable energy taking over. (So lower coal and natural gas exports and domestic use, possibly lower meat exports.) [Water constraints not mentioned in the presser. Wheat and rice exports are threatened.] 3. Escalating health problems (psychological; infectious disease (due to climate change); antibiotic ineffectiveness). [Aging not mentioned here.] 4. Geopolitical shifts. Increased "defense" (i.e. military) spending; more cybercrime [by state-supported actors implied]. Lower willingness to engage in rules-based international trade. 5. Tele-everything: telework, telehealth. Also crypto. 6. AI/internet of things. 7. Decreasing citizen trust in the political class and institutions; increasing internal unrest. As Insru noted, population aging is absent. Australia is fairly old as a population (although not up there with Japan, South Korea, and Germany) and aging fairly quickly. Historically it has attracted immigrants to bolster its workforce; this policy is meeting increaasing resistance.

pcrh 4y ago

An ageing population is sometimes axiomatically considered to be a problem. However, Japan, S. Korea and Germany do not appear to be suffering from a lack of GDP growth compared to the OECD as a whole. Perhaps a growing productivity per worker is able to compensate for fewer workers? Indeed, there may be advantages to declining populations, such as reduced environmental pressures and reduced demand for housing...

zx8080 4y ago
lazyjones 4y ago
As GDP includes earnings from investments in foreign countries (which at least Germany does plenty of), this is a somewhat moot point.
tjansen 4y ago
The ageing population only becomes an issue once the ageing population reaches retirement age and can't participate in the work force. Even though there is already a shortage of workers in Germany, it is expected to get worse in the next decades.
- tuatoru 4y ago
  Yes. check out Japan: its workforce problem will peak around 2038 according to the UN Pop estimate[1]. 1. https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Pyramid/392 https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Pyr... Move the slider at the top to 2038.
- pcrh 4y ago
  The survival curve of Western populations is "squaring", i.e. the age of the oldest is not increasing as much as the average age. You can see this effect for England and Wales in the graphic below [0]. So the extent of the "problem" (if it is one) will not continue to increase at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. [0] https://i.imgur.com/ONRm4Ep.jpg https://i.imgur.com/ONRm4Ep.jpg

tjansen 4y ago

I think there are two trends missing: 1. Immigration. The global worker shortage will result in countries competing for workers. Many young people will move to the country that offers the best quality of life. Global wage discrepancies will disappear, and high-tax countries need to justify their high taxes by offering more services to workers. 2. Energy. While in the short run there's an Energy crisis especially in Europe, there is so much money being invested in research that sooner or later new technology will offer an abundance of energy. 20 years may be not enough to reach that state, but energy abundance will have an enormous impact on humanity and even the prospect of it will change thinking.

turing_complete 4y ago
I hope you're right on number 2. We have to make sure that environmentalists don't succeed in demonizing whatever technology comes out on top. Now, at last, many young, educated people, especially with a technical background, are pro-nuclear. So, I am cautiously optimistic.
- vaylian 4y ago
  > We have to make sure that environmentalists don't succeed in demonizing whatever technology comes out on top If (and only if) that technology is a major safety or environmental hazard, then it should receive all the criticism that it deserves.
- _ph_ 4y ago
  While there are of course radical environmentalists whose position often have little to do with actual environment protection, most people wouldn't object to a technology just because it is new. But of course, if it is really bad for the environment, people will rightfully object. And while nuclear is low-carbon, what certainly is of high importance, there are serious environmental concerns. It is not crazy nor demonizing, if you raise those.
blueflow 4y ago
Re: 2. Abundance of energy is never gonna happen. Entropy is a bitch. Its always going to be a struggle.

LAC-Tech 4y ago

Funny to see something from CSIRO on HN. I have an indirect connection with them (client wanted to integrate with one of the tech companies they sponsor). Agree with most of their list, save 7 - they've made a diagnosis but think there's still a cure. I don't and reckon it's probably worthwhile to start thinking about a peaceful path forward when public trust reaches critically low levels, rather than letting something happen "spontaneously".

gonzo41 4y ago

Larry Marshal gave a pretty good speech at the National Press Club to release this report. If you listen close, he talks about being at the beach in the future, when the beach now starts a few streets back from where it is today. You then get a message from your watch that lets you know you've gotten to much heat exposure and need to cool down. So you take a swim. I found some of the imagery pretty sad to be honest. I think it was lost on the journalists in the room what he was saying. Wet Bulb temperatures are going to kill people all the time. So much so, that being at the beach may be lethal. And anyone who owns land on the beach is going to not own land anymore in the future. Also I'll be 150 before aggressive actions today results in a better climate, so.... I hope Australian can take the opportunity up to become a renewable super power. Seems like we'll just be leaving money on the table if we don't.

poulsbohemian 4y ago

This is an important list, but water is perhaps the single most important point of focus for the future. Places are legit having water shortages all over the world and population+heat+private corps trying to buy up rights+misallocation means it's going to be a big effing deal.

brabel 4y ago

> the pandemic-fuelled a boom in digitisation, with teleworking, telehealth, online shopping and digital currencies becoming mainstream. Forty percent of Australians now work remotely on a regular basis and the future demand for digital workers expected to increase by 79% from 2020 to 2025. Is there any actual evidence digital currencies are "becoming mainstream" or they just threw that in because it sounds cool? I still see zero use for digital currencies despite initially trying to be an early adopter, but all I saw since then was digital currencies being used as "investments" like any shares, not as actual currencies.

gizmo 4y ago
Reports like these are written for clueless people who want to sound smart and "with it". When you're the CEO of a company that manufactures bathroom tiles still you're expected to have opinions about the future of big data and on how artificial intelligence will disrupt your industry. It's a pretty safe bet that the most transformative changes in the next 20 years won't be any of those listed here.
mattmanser 4y ago
No, and they're wrong about online shopping too. Even in the middle of the pandemic, internet shopping never went above 40% of purchasing. https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/timeseries/j4mc/drsi https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindust... And as you can see, while it had a spike during the pandemic, it's roughly back to where it would be expected to be, growing, but the pandemic seemingly had no lasting impact.
- Someone 4y ago
  The only statement about online shopping I find on that page is “online shopping […] becoming mainstream”. Eyeballing that chart, if it’s at around 20% now and growing about one percentage point each year, it will be at 40% in 20 years time. I would call that mainstream.
  - mattmanser 4y ago

narrator 4y ago

I've been studying the WEF lately and it seems they've seized the creative vision of all futurists. These 7 goals all seem like they're just a rehash of the WEF vision even talking about ESG by name. Can't somebody go somewhere that's a bit more gonzo please? Maybe it's just that the WEF have so much money and power that everyone academic thinking about the future is drawn to their vision because it's so lucrative. Where's the update to cyberpunk or this generation's Phillip K. Dick or John Brunner?

waihtis 4y ago
Moreso, thinking the WEF are some kind of visionary force is equivalent to thinking IBM will create the next killer application

rednerrus 4y ago

I haven't seen the list yet but if demographic shift/collapse isn't at the top of the list, I'm skeptical.

clarge1120 4y ago

There is a growing trend that could upset/cancel every one of these megatrends: nationalism. The world is currently in a power struggle between nationalist and globalist concerns. If the globalists manage to stem the tide of nationalism, then these trends make sense. Otherwise, the next 20 years will see trends that don't show up on this list such as a shift in imperial power from West to East.