4 ms·
>If there were historically any other way of defining it, it would be totally reasonable to cite that now. Well, there has. For US recessions, Wikipedia has hi
by _23sd 4y ago
>If there were historically any other way of defining it, it would be totally reasonable to cite that now.
Well, there has. For US recessions, Wikipedia has historically relied on NBER research to decide when recessions begin and end. Don't believe me, check out this version of the list of recessions from 2008 recession era [1], or a more recent one from 2021 [2]. Even though the 2008 article's lead incorrectly suggests that it uses the 2 quarters of negative growth definition, for modern recessions they are referencing the NBER's dating, which back in 2008 (and well before that) was looking at other measures [3]. Here's an article from 2004 about the NBER changing the start date of the early 2000s recession, and comments under it complaining that the methodology was changed to make Bush look good (it wasn't actually changed) [4].
Within the context of Wikipedia, this current dispute is ridiculous and entirely politically motivated. Being quite cynical, I think the people fighting to change the lead of the "Recession" article to remove the reference to the NBER are trying to create an incorrect perception that it is some obscure and probably liberal organization that liberal media outlets are using to protect Biden. In fact, for better or worse it seems to have long been the "official" authority on recessions in the US as far as economists and historians are concerned.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States&oldid=206574041 https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_recession...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States&oldid=1044717388 https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_recession...
[3] https://web.archive.org/web/20080306073115/http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html https://web.archive.org/web/20080306073115/http://www.nber.o...
[4] https://alt.politics.narkive.com/4cf9LZYk/economists-say-recession-started-in-2000 https://alt.politics.narkive.com/4cf9LZYk/economists-say-rec...
- AlbertCory 4y agoI don't doubt that there has been an official definition, but the need is (and always has been) for a quick one. I see nothing wrong with both of them coexisting.
- stjohnswarts 4y ago
- 7speter 4y agoI took a number of undergrad econ classes from 2012-2014, and every course and every textbook defined a recession as two quarters of negative growth. I gotta wonder myself, what gives?
- Ekaros 4y agoPolitics... I wonder if in 5 years this period will be called recession... Probably it will.
- _23sd 4y agoMy undergrad econ class used Mankiw's Macroeconomics, which did not use the two quarters definition, just "a period of declining real incomes and rising unemployment" less severe than a depression and referred to NBER as "The official arbiter of when recessions begin and end". So maybe there is some variation.
- lowkey 4y agoBill Clinton defined a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative growth [1]. I suppose the definition of a recession is determined by which party is in office? I don't mean to be snarky, but it is clear that the sudden change in definition is political. [1] https://twitter.com/HowardMortman/status/1552767281981231104?s=20&t=YwkWhNsYcbycnVBASgRtEA https://twitter.com/HowardMortman/status/1552767281981231104...
- Macha 4y agoIs Bill Clinton not of the party which is being accused of standing to benefit from current situation not being classified as a recession?
- lowkey 4y agoMy point exactly. Rules for thee but not for me. Or, "A recession is defined as two consecutive periods of negative GDP growth, except when a Democrat is in power, beginning effective 2022."
- erichocean 4y ago> For US recessions, Wikipedia has historically relied on NBER research to decide when recessions begin and end. Yeah, that's useless for policymaking: NBER defines recessions historically, i.e. 6 - 18 months AFTER THEY HAVE OCCURRED. The "two quarters of negative GDP" is what is used by policymakers, which have to adjust immediately. Totally different things.