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Hard to get my head around the -10% in Mac sales since i expected the Apple-silicon transition to “open up the flood gates”. Not coming from an investor mindse

Hard to get my head around the -10% in Mac sales since i expected the Apple-silicon transition to “open up the flood gates”. Not coming from an investor mindset - mostly because the new macs are finally great value for money again and well built, mostly designed with actual users in mind and thus surprised there doesn’t seem to be a real impact financially. Can anyone explain or put forward an interpretation on the “why” behind this?

cschep 4y ago
Is it possible they just can't make enough? I know I work for a big company that would have purchased a metric ton of these but they simply couldn't get them.
- piva00 4y ago
  Same here, work for a big company trying to manage its lender MacBooks better because new hires are coming in faster than the supply of new computers. Not looking very bright for my next equipment upgrade season coming up...
wollsmoth 4y ago
The only thing I can think of is these things are lasting longer and the cheaper machines meet many peoples needs. I can hang on to my 2015 mbp another year or two for personal use anyway. And I won't be replacing it with a $3k MBP, I'll probably be going with an m2 or m3 MBA which will be under $2k.
- ghaff 4y ago
  I have 3 Macs at home and two of them are 2015 vintage--one desktop, one laptop. I did get a new Apple Silicon MacBook with a much larger SSD for various reasons. But for most purposes the other computers are fine and I'll probably use them even after OS upgrade cutoff as essentially browsers for a good long time.
  - bjelkeman-again 4y ago
    I have the first Mac Book Air (2008) driving an old scanner with outdated drivers. Another old (not as old) Air is my portable Logic recording station. The last Intel Air as my current laptop. My desktop is a 2013 Mac trashcan. They end up being used for a very long time doing something useful.
    - wollsmoth 4y ago
      nice! I kinda want a trashcan but I just have no real use for it. But I love that case!
deleted 4y ago
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mrtksn 4y ago
Intel sales are down %22. There are also articles about AMD. not doing very well[0]. Maybe simply people are not buying as many computers anymore. [0] https://seekingalpha.com/article/4526269-amd-we-have-a-problem https://seekingalpha.com/article/4526269-amd-we-have-a-probl...
- piva00 4y ago
  Or maybe it's constrained supply-side due to a global chip shortage?
- kube-system 4y ago
  1. Chip shortage 2. Everyone already bought a new one recently to work/learn from home
  - eyelidlessness 4y ago
    Heavily weighted towards #1. I’ve been watching and waiting to order when delays shrink because the only rush I’m in is wanting in on the new shiny… and delays have shrunk to weeks instead of multiple months, but that’s still pretty astonishing for machines which (some anyway) were announced nearly a year ago.
selectodude 4y ago
You couldn’t buy one for literally months earlier this year.
hnbear 4y ago
I would bet supply constraints meaning they couldn’t make enough to sell. I was trying to buy large numbers for work (orders of 50-100 a time, multiple times) from Q4 through Q2 and ship times were months out at some points. If you can’t make them you can’t sell them.
joshstrange 4y ago
I know everyone else is saying it as well but the lead time to get a high-specced MBP is insane. So much so that my company had to give new hires a base model M1 Pro because that was one of the only things they could get their hands on. Base MBP with M1 Pro, 16GB RAM, 512GB SSD: $2,499.00 Minimum desired MBP with M1 Pro, upgraded GPU so you can get more RAM, 64GB RAM, 1TB SSD: $3,699.00 And that's just assuming we wouldn't have considered M1 Max chips. We are a smaller company but have had had to buy at least 2 "compromise" laptops that I know of due to lead time. I imagine larger companies are in a similar position so Apple is losing $1-2K per laptop just because we can't buy the one we want in a reasonable timeframe.
- deleted 4y ago
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- hiptobecubic 4y ago
  Honestly that price is still insane. M1 is great and all but good lord.
  - dymk 4y ago
    The delta is a rounding error for a company if it makes an engineer a little bit more productive
- muro 4y ago
  I don't think you can get a M1 Pro with 64GB RAM, that needs to be a Max, no?
olyjohn 4y ago
I don't get why people thought it would change anything. The OS is still MacOS, and having to use a totally different OS to get a slightly better CPU performance isn't going to convince anybody to switch. None of my geek friends who use PCs give a single rip about the M1/M2 processors. Nobody I know who works with Windows and Linux on x86 systems care either, because MacOS is not their preference nor part of their business. Lots of people are still using 7-10 year old systems that work fine. It has literally zero impact on what they do. Nobody who is not technically-minded is going to care, because they'll either want a Mac or they won't. You turn it on, and it looks the same as the x86 Macs, and for 99% of what people do, the peak performance doesn't mean that much to them.
- epolanski 4y ago
  You seem so disconnected from real people. Intel macbooks are so goddamn hot that any dev I know envies the colleague with the M2 that has never such problems and whose laptop last an entire day with charging.
  - throwaway45631 4y ago
    Amen. I would always choose my 2020 lowest specced M1-MBA over my highend specced Intel-MBP from 2017. Not only are they hot, they are also loud. You notice when intel users join a video conference because of the constant fan-noise [1]. Not to mention that the constant heat comes with rediculous malfunctions over time. I considered leaving the platform until the Apple Silicon CPUs arrived. I currently run a kubernetes cluster on my new MBP with 13 pods plus 2 dev servers for some Java BE and another for a web-FE - no fan-noise! [1] at least those with a 13 inch MBP 2017
    - olyjohn 4y ago
      Wow I ran a cluster 2x that size on a Raspberry Pi. And no fan noise either.
  - hiptobecubic 4y ago
    You're comparing mac people with intel vs mac people with M2. They are comparing non-mac people before M1 was released to after M1 was released and (rightly) pointing out that none of those people really care about this.

cschep 4y ago

Is it possible they just can't make enough? I know I work for a big company that would have purchased a metric ton of these but they simply couldn't get them.

piva00 4y ago
Same here, work for a big company trying to manage its lender MacBooks better because new hires are coming in faster than the supply of new computers. Not looking very bright for my next equipment upgrade season coming up...

wollsmoth 4y ago

The only thing I can think of is these things are lasting longer and the cheaper machines meet many peoples needs. I can hang on to my 2015 mbp another year or two for personal use anyway. And I won't be replacing it with a $3k MBP, I'll probably be going with an m2 or m3 MBA which will be under $2k.

ghaff 4y ago
I have 3 Macs at home and two of them are 2015 vintage--one desktop, one laptop. I did get a new Apple Silicon MacBook with a much larger SSD for various reasons. But for most purposes the other computers are fine and I'll probably use them even after OS upgrade cutoff as essentially browsers for a good long time.
- bjelkeman-again 4y ago
  I have the first Mac Book Air (2008) driving an old scanner with outdated drivers. Another old (not as old) Air is my portable Logic recording station. The last Intel Air as my current laptop. My desktop is a 2013 Mac trashcan. They end up being used for a very long time doing something useful.
  - wollsmoth 4y ago
    nice! I kinda want a trashcan but I just have no real use for it. But I love that case!

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

mrtksn 4y ago

Intel sales are down %22. There are also articles about AMD. not doing very well[0]. Maybe simply people are not buying as many computers anymore. [0] https://seekingalpha.com/article/4526269-amd-we-have-a-problem https://seekingalpha.com/article/4526269-amd-we-have-a-probl...

piva00 4y ago
Or maybe it's constrained supply-side due to a global chip shortage?
kube-system 4y ago
1. Chip shortage 2. Everyone already bought a new one recently to work/learn from home
- eyelidlessness 4y ago
  Heavily weighted towards #1. I’ve been watching and waiting to order when delays shrink because the only rush I’m in is wanting in on the new shiny… and delays have shrunk to weeks instead of multiple months, but that’s still pretty astonishing for machines which (some anyway) were announced nearly a year ago.

selectodude 4y ago

You couldn’t buy one for literally months earlier this year.

hnbear 4y ago

I would bet supply constraints meaning they couldn’t make enough to sell. I was trying to buy large numbers for work (orders of 50-100 a time, multiple times) from Q4 through Q2 and ship times were months out at some points. If you can’t make them you can’t sell them.

joshstrange 4y ago

I know everyone else is saying it as well but the lead time to get a high-specced MBP is insane. So much so that my company had to give new hires a base model M1 Pro because that was one of the only things they could get their hands on. Base MBP with M1 Pro, 16GB RAM, 512GB SSD: $2,499.00 Minimum desired MBP with M1 Pro, upgraded GPU so you can get more RAM, 64GB RAM, 1TB SSD: $3,699.00 And that's just assuming we wouldn't have considered M1 Max chips. We are a smaller company but have had had to buy at least 2 "compromise" laptops that I know of due to lead time. I imagine larger companies are in a similar position so Apple is losing $1-2K per laptop just because we can't buy the one we want in a reasonable timeframe.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
hiptobecubic 4y ago
Honestly that price is still insane. M1 is great and all but good lord.
- dymk 4y ago
  The delta is a rounding error for a company if it makes an engineer a little bit more productive
muro 4y ago
I don't think you can get a M1 Pro with 64GB RAM, that needs to be a Max, no?

olyjohn 4y ago

I don't get why people thought it would change anything. The OS is still MacOS, and having to use a totally different OS to get a slightly better CPU performance isn't going to convince anybody to switch. None of my geek friends who use PCs give a single rip about the M1/M2 processors. Nobody I know who works with Windows and Linux on x86 systems care either, because MacOS is not their preference nor part of their business. Lots of people are still using 7-10 year old systems that work fine. It has literally zero impact on what they do. Nobody who is not technically-minded is going to care, because they'll either want a Mac or they won't. You turn it on, and it looks the same as the x86 Macs, and for 99% of what people do, the peak performance doesn't mean that much to them.

epolanski 4y ago
You seem so disconnected from real people. Intel macbooks are so goddamn hot that any dev I know envies the colleague with the M2 that has never such problems and whose laptop last an entire day with charging.
- throwaway45631 4y ago
  Amen. I would always choose my 2020 lowest specced M1-MBA over my highend specced Intel-MBP from 2017. Not only are they hot, they are also loud. You notice when intel users join a video conference because of the constant fan-noise [1]. Not to mention that the constant heat comes with rediculous malfunctions over time. I considered leaving the platform until the Apple Silicon CPUs arrived. I currently run a kubernetes cluster on my new MBP with 13 pods plus 2 dev servers for some Java BE and another for a web-FE - no fan-noise! [1] at least those with a 13 inch MBP 2017
  - olyjohn 4y ago
    Wow I ran a cluster 2x that size on a Raspberry Pi. And no fan noise either.
- hiptobecubic 4y ago
  You're comparing mac people with intel vs mac people with M2. They are comparing non-mac people before M1 was released to after M1 was released and (rightly) pointing out that none of those people really care about this.