Macro Econ 101: Unemployment is a lagging indicator. Always has been. Always will be. It's why it was silly for them to keep touting it as a measure of the econ

Macro Econ 101: Unemployment is a lagging indicator. Always has been. Always will be. It's why it was silly for them to keep touting it as a measure of the economy's health. We could even enter a prolonged, severe recession with low unemployment. How? Labor force participation. If it is low enough, there aren't jobs to cut. Your last point is very valid, and much is a matter of perspective. As far as mixed data... the only data throwing a contrary signal is unemployment, previously discussed. Inflation, rising interest rates, low consumer confidence, home prices turning over (speculative market areas currently), supply chain issues, and loss of wealth effect (markets have lost approximately $30 trillion this year), are all VERY recessionary.