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I've seen the word recession thrown around plenty in the press; who's avoiding saying it? As pointed out by another commenter the NBER has never failed to decl
by rockemsockem 4y ago
I've seen the word recession thrown around plenty in the press; who's avoiding saying it?
As pointed out by another commenter the NBER has never failed to declare a recession after two consecutive quarters of GDP reduction. This is a preliminary report, I would expect them to wait for the full report to actually declare it.
These things work a certain way. Whether that way is good or bad isn't relevant to this particular point, by expecting that way to change on a whim you're just being impatient.
- seizethegdgap 4y ago> who's avoiding saying it? No one is avoiding saying the word "recession". The current Executive Branch and Federal Reserve are both avoiding saying we are in a recession.
- sangnoir 4y agoAren't recesssions - by necessity, always declared retrospectively? Or at least after they have already started, due to how they are measured.
- ConceitedCode 4y ago> As pointed out by another commenter the NBER has never failed to declare a recession after two consecutive quarters of GDP reduction. That isn't 100% accurate. There is 1 example from 1947 where we had two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, but positive jobs, positive industrial production and positive consumer spending and NBER doesn't consider it a recession. 2001 was the opposite. It was called a recession without consecutive 2 quarters of negative GDP growth. [1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_2000s_recession#/media/File:Recession2001.PNG https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_2000s_recession#/media/F...
- dragonwriter 4y ago> 2001 was the opposite. It was called a recession without consecutive 2 quarters of negative GDP growth. Also 2020, and that wasn't even two down quarters with a gap; the whole recession was 2 months long.