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I’m not an economist. A number of respected economists believed a year ago that inflation was mostly supply chain issues and was transient. Now, with new info

by czstar 4y ago

I’m not an economist. A number of respected economists believed a year ago that inflation was mostly supply chain issues and was transient. Now, with new information, opinions are changing. I believe the monetary stimulus mostly occurred the first year of the pandemic but maybe it’s continuing. I don’t know. Since inflation is a global phenomenon it seems reasonable to conclude that fiscal stimulus in the U.S. is not the cause. I believe the statements regarding the Ukraine war were that it was going to increase inflation and not that the current level of inflation was due to the war. The statements I recall were of the form, “due to the war inflation will be exacerbated.”

hackerlight 4y ago
The statement from Psaki in an early press conference was that the invasion explained the observed CPI number. She wasn't referring to inflation that was yet to come. She knowingly lied, probably rationalizing it as spin or a half-truth.
- czstar 4y ago
  I remember when Palin ran for Vice President she had a day of interviews for local media types from various parts of the country. She did a number of consecutive interviews and in one made a dumb mistake conflating North Korea with South Korea. She was ridiculed by people for not knowing the difference. Now, I believe Palin is profoundly dumb and ignorant but she didn’t deserve to be attacked for making a mistake during a full day of interviews. You mention one statement from the Press Secretary ascribe to it malice. Do you know she lied rather than was misinformed? Assume she is lying. Does this mean the whole administration lied? The discussion at hand is about Yellen (and by extension economists at NBER and other agencies). One statement by the Press Secretary is evidence of a lie by these people? I don’t think so. It’s believable that Yellen and Biden and Pskai did lie because in politics you try to sway public perception and opinion. I don’t believe NBER has lied and to blame inflation on fiscal stimulus that largely occurred two years ago seems outright bad thinking. Especially to then blame the current administration for it. Inflation is going on all over the world. It’s not Biden’s fault. There’s a collection of reasons and mechanisms at play and Biden can only do so much.
  - hackerlight 4y ago
    It wasn't one statement. This was early in the invasion so I was glued to the press conferences. It was deliberate messaging delivered more than once. If there's transcripts you could grep search for inflation. "I don’t believe NBER has lied and to blame inflation on fiscal stimulus that largely occurred two years ago seems outright bad thinking. Especially to then blame the current administration for it. Inflation is going on all over the world. It’s not Biden’s fault. There’s a collection of reasons and mechanisms at play and Biden can only do so much." I'm not sure what you think you're arguing against. Never said that it's one hundred percent down to fiscal policy from two years ago (although both loose fiscal and monetary policy of Trump and Biden are undeniably a non-trivial part of it -- money supply and inflation are inextricably linked). I also wasn't saying it was mostly Biden's fault.

by czstar 4y ago

hackerlight 4y ago

The statement from Psaki in an early press conference was that the invasion explained the observed CPI number. She wasn't referring to inflation that was yet to come. She knowingly lied, probably rationalizing it as spin or a half-truth.

czstar 4y ago
I remember when Palin ran for Vice President she had a day of interviews for local media types from various parts of the country. She did a number of consecutive interviews and in one made a dumb mistake conflating North Korea with South Korea. She was ridiculed by people for not knowing the difference. Now, I believe Palin is profoundly dumb and ignorant but she didn’t deserve to be attacked for making a mistake during a full day of interviews. You mention one statement from the Press Secretary ascribe to it malice. Do you know she lied rather than was misinformed? Assume she is lying. Does this mean the whole administration lied? The discussion at hand is about Yellen (and by extension economists at NBER and other agencies). One statement by the Press Secretary is evidence of a lie by these people? I don’t think so. It’s believable that Yellen and Biden and Pskai did lie because in politics you try to sway public perception and opinion. I don’t believe NBER has lied and to blame inflation on fiscal stimulus that largely occurred two years ago seems outright bad thinking. Especially to then blame the current administration for it. Inflation is going on all over the world. It’s not Biden’s fault. There’s a collection of reasons and mechanisms at play and Biden can only do so much.
- hackerlight 4y ago
  It wasn't one statement. This was early in the invasion so I was glued to the press conferences. It was deliberate messaging delivered more than once. If there's transcripts you could grep search for inflation. "I don’t believe NBER has lied and to blame inflation on fiscal stimulus that largely occurred two years ago seems outright bad thinking. Especially to then blame the current administration for it. Inflation is going on all over the world. It’s not Biden’s fault. There’s a collection of reasons and mechanisms at play and Biden can only do so much." I'm not sure what you think you're arguing against. Never said that it's one hundred percent down to fiscal policy from two years ago (although both loose fiscal and monetary policy of Trump and Biden are undeniably a non-trivial part of it -- money supply and inflation are inextricably linked). I also wasn't saying it was mostly Biden's fault.