Lithium ion battery production is inching up close to a TWh/year already: https://www.energy-storage.news/europe-and-us-will-shave-c-10-off-chinas-li-ion-produ

Lithium ion battery production is inching up close to a TWh/year already: https://www.energy-storage.news/europe-and-us-will-shave-c-10-off-chinas-li-ion-production-capacity-market-share-by-2030/ https://www.energy-storage.news/europe-and-us-will-shave-c-1... And production capacity is continuing to scale exponentially. Other estimates for 2030 production are much higher than the 4TWh/year in that article, I've heard 20-30 TWh/year from others with serious skin in the game. Plus, there are plenty of other battery chemistries that are closer to production than, say, SMRs, like the much-hyped Form energy's iron air batteries. And that battery cost and discharge rate were designed around current electricity market economics from the very start. As you point out, there's a tradeoff between overbuild of renewables and storage; with more renewables overbuild there's less need for storage. And with more storage there's less need for renewables overbuild. If you overbuild renewables 10x, it's simply 10x the cost, plus you have lots of zero-marginal-cost energy nearly all the time. And I think that this total system cost is probably the Best way to look at the cost, rather than cost/kWh decreasing as more is added. We as a society pay the total cost, not a marginal $/kWh price.