Well, no. The difference is that we can look at other R+D of technologies (which cost less than that), the rate of autonomous piloting in drones and cars, and

Well, no. The difference is that we can look at other R+D of technologies (which cost less than that), the rate of autonomous piloting in drones and cars, and have reasonable idea that $100B-$1T over a decade will allow us to reach the level of freeway driving for trucks. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPA_Grand_Challenge https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPA_Grand_Challenge https://www.tesla.com/support/autopilot https://www.tesla.com/support/autopilot https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/self-driving-car-trial-launched-on-oxford-roads/ https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/self-driving-car-trial-lau... There are already most of the key components — and we’re ball-parking (on the high side) what that will cost to productize. You haven’t presented any basis for why you think that won’t happen, other than you just don’t like it. I understand you want estimates based on existing technologies and unit prices to be the same as your gut feeling — but they’re not.