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You can see the parallel thread about R+D and if that makes it unaffordable: Amortized, the answer seems to be that trucks would remain affordable — even at th

You can see the parallel thread about R+D and if that makes it unaffordable: Amortized, the answer seems to be that trucks would remain affordable — even at the $100B to $1T cost to develop. > It just tells you whether some finger-in-the-air numbers you selected sum to >0. Estimating the unit economics and R+D amortized cost (as I did) is more reliable than going based purely on your feelings — as you have done. I’d appreciate if you would make specific criticisms about my model, rather than tell me how you feel about the topic.

smcl 4y ago
Thing is I don’t think there’s a fact-based argument in favour or against either position right now. You feel that self-driving trucks will be solved with a $100b-$1tn investment I feel like that simply won’t happen. That’s really what this boils down to. It’s ok to fall back on gut-feel on these issues, don’t let guys like Ben Shapiro tell you otherwise :-)
- zmgsabst 4y ago
  Well, no. The difference is that we can look at other R+D of technologies (which cost less than that), the rate of autonomous piloting in drones and cars, and have reasonable idea that $100B-$1T over a decade will allow us to reach the level of freeway driving for trucks. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPA_Grand_Challenge https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPA_Grand_Challenge https://www.tesla.com/support/autopilot https://www.tesla.com/support/autopilot https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/self-driving-car-trial-launched-on-oxford-roads/ https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/self-driving-car-trial-lau... There are already most of the key components — and we’re ball-parking (on the high side) what that will cost to productize. You haven’t presented any basis for why you think that won’t happen, other than you just don’t like it. I understand you want estimates based on existing technologies and unit prices to be the same as your gut feeling — but they’re not.

smcl 4y ago

Thing is I don’t think there’s a fact-based argument in favour or against either position right now. You feel that self-driving trucks will be solved with a $100b-$1tn investment I feel like that simply won’t happen. That’s really what this boils down to. It’s ok to fall back on gut-feel on these issues, don’t let guys like Ben Shapiro tell you otherwise :-)

zmgsabst 4y ago
Well, no. The difference is that we can look at other R+D of technologies (which cost less than that), the rate of autonomous piloting in drones and cars, and have reasonable idea that $100B-$1T over a decade will allow us to reach the level of freeway driving for trucks. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPA_Grand_Challenge https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPA_Grand_Challenge https://www.tesla.com/support/autopilot https://www.tesla.com/support/autopilot https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/self-driving-car-trial-launched-on-oxford-roads/ https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/self-driving-car-trial-lau... There are already most of the key components — and we’re ball-parking (on the high side) what that will cost to productize. You haven’t presented any basis for why you think that won’t happen, other than you just don’t like it. I understand you want estimates based on existing technologies and unit prices to be the same as your gut feeling — but they’re not.