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I strongly suspect that ban will be delayed. There's still no serious effort to build large-scale public EV charging infrastructure. The ban on new petrol vehi

I strongly suspect that ban will be delayed. There's still no serious effort to build large-scale public EV charging infrastructure. The ban on new petrol vehicles seems likely to result in more older (higher-emission) vehicles remaining on the road for longer, as EVs still remain 'toys for the wealthy', far too expensive for the working class (who rely on inexpensive used cars). It's unclear what the used EV market is going to look like longer-term in terms of pricing, degraded battery packs, and reduced range, and availability of repair/servicing for a vehicle that's now a 'tech product' full of software locks, that can only be repaired by authorised dealers, rather than by any skilled mechanic. It's also unclear how governments are going to tax EV users to recoup the huge amount of fuel tax lost from the switch to EVs...

paulb73 4y ago
The used market is what really concerns me with the EV market, when it comes to sustainability. My daughter will be driving in 2 years time and is adamant she won't drive something powered by fossil-fuels. However, what choice does she have? Any used EV will have a range of 50 miles, and that is after a full 8 hour charge. Fixing/replacing the battery will cost far more than the vehicle itself. More recent EVs 2nd-hand price is still higher than a new petrol-based one. I can't see how the market can support itself, without efforts to create batteries that can be recycled easily, but the manufacturers don't seem to have an interest in that.
- Lutger 4y ago
  Where is your 50 miles number based on? Seems really far off to me.
  - paulb73 4y ago
    I was looking at old EVs, 10+ years old, that my daughter could afford herself for £3k - £5k. It might be that more recent cars retain their range better after 10 years, but then they may also retain their price.
ZeroGravitas 4y ago
This is a nice summary of all the usual talking points that aren't true. The ban has already been brought forward in multiple jurisdictions, that's the general trend, as people realise all the lies they've been told about EVs aren't true, so delaying it would be very surprising. In London, they have the low emission zones on top of that, so any poor person buying an old ICE car for use in London would be paying hefty sums to drive around. There's multiple serious efforts to build large-scale public (and private) EV charging infrastructure. Why do you think there isn't? How can you think that? They're popping up everywhere. The ban doesn't even ban PHEVs currently (though there's reasonable chance that it will be strengenthed in some way as the transition accelerates) so even ignoring all EVs with lower TCO than equivalent ICE cars available today, which will be 8 years old in 2030, there's also tons of hybrids for these poor people to buy. Degraded battery packs? Now that's a classic, thought that one had died out, along with "toys for the wealthy". The "fuel tax" is more than made up for by all the many benefits of EV (less pollution being a key one) that society gets, but it's good that governments will probably tax EVs as cars, even EVs, have multiple negative externalities that the people who use them should pay for, so the people cycling or on the train don't need to pay for other people's bad decisions. Otherwise we'll end up with inefficient American sprawl rather than healthy, livable cities.
- yobbo 4y ago
  > Degraded battery packs? Do car batteries not degrade? How are they different from other batteries? > The "fuel tax" is more than made up for by all the many benefits of EV From the government's perspective, it's lost cash flow.
  - ZeroGravitas 4y ago
    We have a decade of data on the question of how much degredation there is for EVs. Short answer, not much. https://storage.googleapis.com/geotab-sandbox/ev-battery-degradation/index.html https://storage.googleapis.com/geotab-sandbox/ev-battery-deg... In the UK, the government also pays for the dementia and asthma that the car pollution creates, and importing the fuels is a cost, as is the lost efficiency, cost of meeting net zero targets and upgrading the grid (which EVs help with) so it evens out. As I say, they'll probably start taxing them anyway, and thats good, London has a "Congestion Charge" so exceptions for EV make sense as a short term incentive, but they still cause "congestion" and should still pay.

paulb73 4y ago

The used market is what really concerns me with the EV market, when it comes to sustainability. My daughter will be driving in 2 years time and is adamant she won't drive something powered by fossil-fuels. However, what choice does she have? Any used EV will have a range of 50 miles, and that is after a full 8 hour charge. Fixing/replacing the battery will cost far more than the vehicle itself. More recent EVs 2nd-hand price is still higher than a new petrol-based one. I can't see how the market can support itself, without efforts to create batteries that can be recycled easily, but the manufacturers don't seem to have an interest in that.

Lutger 4y ago
Where is your 50 miles number based on? Seems really far off to me.
- paulb73 4y ago
  I was looking at old EVs, 10+ years old, that my daughter could afford herself for £3k - £5k. It might be that more recent cars retain their range better after 10 years, but then they may also retain their price.

ZeroGravitas 4y ago

This is a nice summary of all the usual talking points that aren't true. The ban has already been brought forward in multiple jurisdictions, that's the general trend, as people realise all the lies they've been told about EVs aren't true, so delaying it would be very surprising. In London, they have the low emission zones on top of that, so any poor person buying an old ICE car for use in London would be paying hefty sums to drive around. There's multiple serious efforts to build large-scale public (and private) EV charging infrastructure. Why do you think there isn't? How can you think that? They're popping up everywhere. The ban doesn't even ban PHEVs currently (though there's reasonable chance that it will be strengenthed in some way as the transition accelerates) so even ignoring all EVs with lower TCO than equivalent ICE cars available today, which will be 8 years old in 2030, there's also tons of hybrids for these poor people to buy. Degraded battery packs? Now that's a classic, thought that one had died out, along with "toys for the wealthy". The "fuel tax" is more than made up for by all the many benefits of EV (less pollution being a key one) that society gets, but it's good that governments will probably tax EVs as cars, even EVs, have multiple negative externalities that the people who use them should pay for, so the people cycling or on the train don't need to pay for other people's bad decisions. Otherwise we'll end up with inefficient American sprawl rather than healthy, livable cities.

yobbo 4y ago
> Degraded battery packs? Do car batteries not degrade? How are they different from other batteries? > The "fuel tax" is more than made up for by all the many benefits of EV From the government's perspective, it's lost cash flow.
- ZeroGravitas 4y ago
  We have a decade of data on the question of how much degredation there is for EVs. Short answer, not much. https://storage.googleapis.com/geotab-sandbox/ev-battery-degradation/index.html https://storage.googleapis.com/geotab-sandbox/ev-battery-deg... In the UK, the government also pays for the dementia and asthma that the car pollution creates, and importing the fuels is a cost, as is the lost efficiency, cost of meeting net zero targets and upgrading the grid (which EVs help with) so it evens out. As I say, they'll probably start taxing them anyway, and thats good, London has a "Congestion Charge" so exceptions for EV make sense as a short term incentive, but they still cause "congestion" and should still pay.