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It would actually be extremely unlikely for a virus that is "medium good at spreading to humans" to stay in an isolated location, especially one that spreads as
by Consultant32452 4y ago
It would actually be extremely unlikely for a virus that is "medium good at spreading to humans" to stay in an isolated location, especially one that spreads asymptomatically.
- lamontcg 4y agoIf it spreads asymptomatically though isn't that "good" at spreading rather than "medium"? SARS-1 disn't have a presymptomatic infectious phase and the peak of symptoms was roughly the peak of infectiousness, and it was mostly severely virulent, and it didn't produce a global pandemic and was controllable. To have an uncontrollable pandemic you really need that silent spreading, so the pandemic virus that emerges necessarily has that property from the "start".
- Consultant32452 4y agoHow does a virus that's pretty good at spreading through humans but not yet amazing at spreading through humans stay in an isolated region for months or even years?
- mcguire 4y agoWhat does "isolated region" mean to you?
- Consultant32452 4y agoThe example given by the other poster is rural Hubei.
- lamontcg 4y agoI don't think it would, and I don't know why you'd think I'm suggesting that.
- Consultant32452 4y ago>I tend to think it was circulating in rural Hubei, probably coinfecting domestic animals and people, getting better and better at infecting people until the market event happened which was where it found a densely packed human population where it spread with R0 significantly greater than 1 and took off. How would a virus that's medium good at infecting humans, but not yet amazing at infecting humans, stay in rural Hubei for years without escaping?