The covid response was fine. A lot of what we're seeing now is bullwhip effects from the massive evaporation of demand due to the pandemic (spot prices for oil

The covid response was fine. A lot of what we're seeing now is bullwhip effects from the massive evaporation of demand due to the pandemic (spot prices for oil actually went negative at one point, which is one of those things that everyone seems to have entirely forgotten). That will be transitory. So will the impact of the stimulus checks. Secularly we're seeing the impact of cracking down on immigration combined with death and disability due to Covid and the retirement of baby boomers. There has also been a 40-year long secular trend of tax cuts for the rich and free money policies which has blown up asset bubbles and increased the Gini index of wealth disparity (give rich people money to spend and they blow up asset bubbles and create evaporating risk premiums as investment money goes looking for gains). The covid stimulus to average workers was actually overdue and did create some wage inflation (which would offset the asset bubbles and decrease wealth disparity) but that is what is now being cracked down on by the Fed. I suspect it will be entirely successful at what it is trying to do in the short term, and unemployment will get driven much higher because we can't tolerate the lower class doing any better in this country, that's a disaster. Then I suspect we're going to oscillate between periods of sharp recession and sharp inflation as the secular problems (inequality, lack of immigration and retirement) won't be addressed. 10 years from now Putin and Covid will be long gone, but we'll still be dealing with the secular trends. What I don't know is how much pain that investors or homeowners will be put through either deliberately or unintentionally by policymakers. Everyone has forgotten the problem of "pushing on a string" where no matter how much money you give to investment banks it just gets hidden under the mattress and can't stimulate demand. If they break the economy hard enough we could wind up there and the trajectory of the economy could be out of their control.