The Fed does a very good job at setting market expectations. If it sees the market is mis-aligned with its thinking, it will use soft policy tools like intervie

The Fed does a very good job at setting market expectations. If it sees the market is mis-aligned with its thinking, it will use soft policy tools like interviews and public statements (outside of more formal options, like regularly scheduled official FOMC press releases) to bring the market to its expectations. Markets priced a greater than 3-in-4 chance of a 75 basis point increase, which was the decision: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to... In the preceding weeks, especially after the latest inflation report came out, markets began pricing a ~90% chance of a 100 basis point increase. Then came out the interviews to steer markets back to 75.