6 ms·

We don't have testable theories here, we have Mad Libs. A virus of (human)/(animal) origin was (un)intentionally (released)/(spread)/(detected) in Wuhan, start

by csours 4y ago

We don't have testable theories here, we have Mad Libs. A virus of (human)/(animal) origin was (un)intentionally (released)/(spread)/(detected) in Wuhan, starting at a (lab)/(market). Narrative 1: Animal origin with extensive spread in a food market Narrative 2: Animal origin with accidental release from lab study Narrative 3: Intentional creation/modification of a virus for purposes of scientific study and subsequent (un)intentional release Narrative 4: Intentional creation/modification of a virus for nefarious purposes with (un)intentional release Narrative 5: Animal origin with slow undetected community spread somewhere and possibly random mutation that lead to more viral fitness in Wuhan. --- What would actually change if you had certainty around one of these theories? Are you certain that there will not be a zoonotic viral pandemic in the future? If you aren't certain that there will never be a zoonotic pandemic again, then we should ramp up vector and disease surveillance. Also, China has had no problem disciplining people that cause trouble and embarrassment. If they thought someone caused this, that person is fucking gone.

s1artibartfast 4y ago
For theories number 3 4 and 5, increased controls and monitoring viral labs is one possible action.
- csours 4y ago
  I guess I didn't say all of it - yes, if it is a possibility, we should take it seriously. I think they are all possible, we should take them all seriously. I don't think there is any way to get to a scientific certainty either positively or negatively about any of the origin theories; thus we should take precautions about all of them.
kansface 4y ago
> What would actually change if you had certainty around one of these theories? Widespread political support for ending all public funding of gain-of-function research or outright banning it.
- csours 4y ago
  I think there is certainly a discussion to be had around gain-of-function. I think that discussion should include how gain-of-function is actually used in research laboratories, and what mitigations are already in place.
LatteLazy 4y ago
I'm not a fan of lab leak, but I don't really care. What get's me is I'd support serious action against china because if its a lab leak they need to own that, and if it's from shitty food supply chain they need to own that too. Also they're a shitty dictatorship, they're aggressive, they're genocidal etc. People seem very enthusiastic to blame china for a lab leak, but have no enthusiasm to blame them for other mechanisms or to convert that blame into supporting action. It's a weird thing for my brain and I share this more as sharing my confusion to see if anyone else feels the same way. I think you did a very nice job breaking down the many many uncertainties here btw.
- mike00632 4y ago
  That is exactly how this conspiracy theory is being employed. China is being punished because of a made-up story that is politically advantageous to spread. This is similar to Russia saying that Ukraine is infested with Nazis.

by csours 4y ago

s1artibartfast 4y ago

For theories number 3 4 and 5, increased controls and monitoring viral labs is one possible action.

csours 4y ago
I guess I didn't say all of it - yes, if it is a possibility, we should take it seriously. I think they are all possible, we should take them all seriously. I don't think there is any way to get to a scientific certainty either positively or negatively about any of the origin theories; thus we should take precautions about all of them.

kansface 4y ago

> What would actually change if you had certainty around one of these theories? Widespread political support for ending all public funding of gain-of-function research or outright banning it.

csours 4y ago
I think there is certainly a discussion to be had around gain-of-function. I think that discussion should include how gain-of-function is actually used in research laboratories, and what mitigations are already in place.

LatteLazy 4y ago

I'm not a fan of lab leak, but I don't really care. What get's me is I'd support serious action against china because if its a lab leak they need to own that, and if it's from shitty food supply chain they need to own that too. Also they're a shitty dictatorship, they're aggressive, they're genocidal etc. People seem very enthusiastic to blame china for a lab leak, but have no enthusiasm to blame them for other mechanisms or to convert that blame into supporting action. It's a weird thing for my brain and I share this more as sharing my confusion to see if anyone else feels the same way. I think you did a very nice job breaking down the many many uncertainties here btw.

mike00632 4y ago
That is exactly how this conspiracy theory is being employed. China is being punished because of a made-up story that is politically advantageous to spread. This is similar to Russia saying that Ukraine is infested with Nazis.