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I haven't followed it closely - but it does seem pretty similar. It's not like anything is 'triggered' when a recession is declared. And it's not like the econo
by mikeyouse 4y ago
I haven't followed it closely - but it does seem pretty similar. It's not like anything is 'triggered' when a recession is declared. And it's not like the economy is meaningfully better if you had quarterly growth of [-1%, -0.1%] vs. [-1.2%, 0.1%] -- even though by the two quarters rule, the first would be a recession and the second wouldn't.
It looks like NBER's definition of how they declare recessions has remained consistent, so I'd defer to them:
https://web.archive.org/web/20210103093754/https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating https://web.archive.org/web/20210103093754/https://www.nber....