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> Homicide victims usually did something that enhanced their risk Like... take the subway in NYC [1]? Homicide victims in normal cities that don't have mentall

> Homicide victims usually did something that enhanced their risk Like... take the subway in NYC [1]? Homicide victims in normal cities that don't have mentally deranged homeless roaming the streets usually did something that enhanced their risk. Homicide victims in NYC... had the unfortunate luck to be selected by mentally ill homeless that should have been institutionalized. [1] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/man-wanted-pushing-woman-onto-new-york-city-train-tracks-2022-06-07/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us/man-wanted-pushing-woman-on...

woodruffw 4y ago
This is a weird example to respond with, since there's no homicide. The woman didn't die. So far, in 2022, there have been 4 homicides on the NYC subway. Considering that about 3 million people ride it each weekday (which, in turn, is far below the pre-COVID numbers), I'll take my chances versus our national car deaths statistics.
- ceeplusplus 4y ago
  > since there's no homicide. The woman didn't die. Yes, so it wouldn't have shown up in your touted homicide stats, yet the fact that it happened makes everyone who rides the subway feel less safe. How many attempted homicides, attempted muggings, stalkings, etc. are there that never get reported?
  - woodruffw 4y ago
    However people might feel (and they might feel less safe!) does not detract from the raw factuality that the subway is extremely safe. If people died and were maimed on America's highways at the rate they are in NYC's subways, we'd save tens of thousands of lives and livelihoods yearly. > How many attempted homicides, attempted muggings, stalkings, etc. are there that never get reported? Do you have a source indicating that NYC underreports these crimes uniquely, and not merely that they're generally underreported? Our police are generally zealous when it comes to violent crime statistics, since it allows them to pump the Fear Machine and keep public support up.
    - notch656a 4y ago
      There's a certain, urm, unique element of gangs that disproportionately lives in large cities like NYC and those people like to keep their business as their business (even as victims of violence) and not police business. I'm not sure how much difference it makes but I'd find it to believe there's not a huge amount of gang crime that doesn't get reported, and disproportionally so. I'm sure most of their deaths end up getting found out sooner or later, if they're someone who will be missed. Anything lesser probably ain't gonna be found out if it's gang on gang. This is the kind of stuff that you can kind of 'feel in the air' but can't prove because no gang is going to let Professor Squiggles nerd up on his sociology study during the next hit.
      - woodruffw 4y ago
        A couple of things: * “Like NYC” is doing a lot of work here. NYC has organized crime, but not a lot of violent organized crime anymore. There’s a reason the handwringing over MS-13 focused on the suburbs of Long Island and not NYC. * There’s a lot of “it just doesn’t feel right to me” floating around whenever someone points out, statistically, that NYC is both far safer than its recent history and far safer than the rest of the country. And it’s perfectly reasonable that people would feel that way, because it is unintuitive! But unintuitive feelings don’t trump numbers, and there’s no real evidence (including from sources that have a strong incentive to make crime seem as bad as possible) that massive amounts of violent and property crime are going unreported.
        notch656a 4y ago
        Yes there is not evidence because the gangs and those living under their thumb do not reveal the evidence to police. As I said, no one is inviting Professor Squiggles or woodruffw the computer hacker on the next hit. I'll be the first to admit it's not provable, I've said that all along. It probably never will be provable, and despite your claims that NYPD is happy to report crime I can assure you NYPD is still scared shitless of getting in a gunfight with organized crime except in the narrowest of circumstances where they have controlled conditions and a planned out mission to ambush their enemy alone. NYPD has as much incentive to let sleeping dogs lie as much as the gangs do. They have zero incentive to make it look like their cops need to be doing something that is likely to get them hurt -- much easier to cite some yuppie dunce for a DUI or something -- and aside, "going home safe to your family comes first." Living in the city is one of those places where the statistics sound nice but not going off your intuition eventually catches up to you.
- pandaman 4y ago
  4 homicides already this year and it's not even August? I read on HN that between 1990 and 2003 there had been just 10 homicides in the very same subway and it allegedly had been much more dangerous in that period of time [1]. Seeing that the population only grew by ~15% since 1990 it looks like a huge increase in murder rate. What's going on there? 1.https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32223533 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32223533
  - woodruffw 4y ago
    Subway crime rates have risen substantially in the last two years; it remains to be seen whether that’ll become a long-term trend. In particular, as ridership numbers return to normal, the rate seems to be going down. Even with the 2022 rise, the subway remains substantially safer than any other form of transit.
    - pandaman 4y ago
      >Even with the 2022 rise, the subway remains substantially safer than any other form of transit. By miles traveled or by the total number of deaths occurred while traveling?
      - woodruffw 4y ago
        Both. The subway is safer by these four metrics: * Number of deaths, miles traveled * Number of deaths, per capita commuter * Number of deaths from violent crime or negligence, miles traveled * Number of deaths from violent crime or negligence, per capita commuter
        pandaman 4y ago
        So, to be safer than 0.07 death per billion miles in air travel and still have at least 4 death (there might be more deaths from other causes) and assuming nobody will die the rest of the year, also given 3M daily commuters from your numbers it appears the average commute in NYC subway is more than 52 miles?
whimsicalism 4y ago
Most homicides in the cities are not like what is being described here. Most homicides you read about in the news might be though.
s1artibartfast 4y ago
"Usually" vs a noteworthy example. I would love to see how the numbers compare

woodruffw 4y ago

This is a weird example to respond with, since there's no homicide. The woman didn't die. So far, in 2022, there have been 4 homicides on the NYC subway. Considering that about 3 million people ride it each weekday (which, in turn, is far below the pre-COVID numbers), I'll take my chances versus our national car deaths statistics.

ceeplusplus 4y ago
> since there's no homicide. The woman didn't die. Yes, so it wouldn't have shown up in your touted homicide stats, yet the fact that it happened makes everyone who rides the subway feel less safe. How many attempted homicides, attempted muggings, stalkings, etc. are there that never get reported?
- woodruffw 4y ago
  However people might feel (and they might feel less safe!) does not detract from the raw factuality that the subway is extremely safe. If people died and were maimed on America's highways at the rate they are in NYC's subways, we'd save tens of thousands of lives and livelihoods yearly. > How many attempted homicides, attempted muggings, stalkings, etc. are there that never get reported? Do you have a source indicating that NYC underreports these crimes uniquely, and not merely that they're generally underreported? Our police are generally zealous when it comes to violent crime statistics, since it allows them to pump the Fear Machine and keep public support up.
  - notch656a 4y ago
    There's a certain, urm, unique element of gangs that disproportionately lives in large cities like NYC and those people like to keep their business as their business (even as victims of violence) and not police business. I'm not sure how much difference it makes but I'd find it to believe there's not a huge amount of gang crime that doesn't get reported, and disproportionally so. I'm sure most of their deaths end up getting found out sooner or later, if they're someone who will be missed. Anything lesser probably ain't gonna be found out if it's gang on gang. This is the kind of stuff that you can kind of 'feel in the air' but can't prove because no gang is going to let Professor Squiggles nerd up on his sociology study during the next hit.
    - woodruffw 4y ago
      A couple of things: * “Like NYC” is doing a lot of work here. NYC has organized crime, but not a lot of violent organized crime anymore. There’s a reason the handwringing over MS-13 focused on the suburbs of Long Island and not NYC. * There’s a lot of “it just doesn’t feel right to me” floating around whenever someone points out, statistically, that NYC is both far safer than its recent history and far safer than the rest of the country. And it’s perfectly reasonable that people would feel that way, because it is unintuitive! But unintuitive feelings don’t trump numbers, and there’s no real evidence (including from sources that have a strong incentive to make crime seem as bad as possible) that massive amounts of violent and property crime are going unreported.
      - notch656a 4y ago
        Yes there is not evidence because the gangs and those living under their thumb do not reveal the evidence to police. As I said, no one is inviting Professor Squiggles or woodruffw the computer hacker on the next hit. I'll be the first to admit it's not provable, I've said that all along. It probably never will be provable, and despite your claims that NYPD is happy to report crime I can assure you NYPD is still scared shitless of getting in a gunfight with organized crime except in the narrowest of circumstances where they have controlled conditions and a planned out mission to ambush their enemy alone. NYPD has as much incentive to let sleeping dogs lie as much as the gangs do. They have zero incentive to make it look like their cops need to be doing something that is likely to get them hurt -- much easier to cite some yuppie dunce for a DUI or something -- and aside, "going home safe to your family comes first." Living in the city is one of those places where the statistics sound nice but not going off your intuition eventually catches up to you.
pandaman 4y ago
4 homicides already this year and it's not even August? I read on HN that between 1990 and 2003 there had been just 10 homicides in the very same subway and it allegedly had been much more dangerous in that period of time [1]. Seeing that the population only grew by ~15% since 1990 it looks like a huge increase in murder rate. What's going on there? 1.https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32223533 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32223533
- woodruffw 4y ago
  Subway crime rates have risen substantially in the last two years; it remains to be seen whether that’ll become a long-term trend. In particular, as ridership numbers return to normal, the rate seems to be going down. Even with the 2022 rise, the subway remains substantially safer than any other form of transit.
  - pandaman 4y ago
    >Even with the 2022 rise, the subway remains substantially safer than any other form of transit. By miles traveled or by the total number of deaths occurred while traveling?
    - woodruffw 4y ago
      Both. The subway is safer by these four metrics: * Number of deaths, miles traveled * Number of deaths, per capita commuter * Number of deaths from violent crime or negligence, miles traveled * Number of deaths from violent crime or negligence, per capita commuter
      - pandaman 4y ago
        So, to be safer than 0.07 death per billion miles in air travel and still have at least 4 death (there might be more deaths from other causes) and assuming nobody will die the rest of the year, also given 3M daily commuters from your numbers it appears the average commute in NYC subway is more than 52 miles?

whimsicalism 4y ago

Most homicides in the cities are not like what is being described here. Most homicides you read about in the news might be though.

s1artibartfast 4y ago

"Usually" vs a noteworthy example. I would love to see how the numbers compare