4 ms·

Why not use NYC data? Seems less Apples to Oranges.

woodruffw 4y ago
Because I was too lazy to pull CompStat[1]. But here you go: * NYC recorded 6,486 burglaries in 2021, for a population of 8.38 million. That's 77.39 burglaries per 100,000 people, which makes the city's burglary rate lower than the rest of the state. * The city recorded 18,862 grand larcenies in 2021, for the same population. That's 225.08 larcenies per 100,000 people, which is also lower than the rest of the state. Both burglaries and larceny are up this year, significantly. But even if they double, NYC will still be well below national and state averages. Edit: Correcting myself: the final statistics[2] for robbery in 2021 show 12811 robberies, for a final rate of 152.88. That's still a fraction of NY state's burglary rate, which is the lowest in the nation. For grand larceny it's 487.71, which is also still below both state and national averages (by two thirds). [1]: https://compstat.nypdonline.org https://compstat.nypdonline.org [2]: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/analysis_and_planning/historical-crime-data/seven-major-felony-offenses-2000-2021.pdf https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/analysis_and_...
- bobsmooth 4y ago
  >Recorded burglaries As a poster above you mentioned, why report a crime if you know nothing will be done.
  - woodruffw 4y ago
    Are you claiming that New Yorkers report crimes less frequently than others? It'd be great to have a source for that; absent that, there's no reason to believe that any sample error in the NYC crime data isn't similarly reflected in all crime data.
    - gojomo 4y ago
      I'm relatively confident that residents of NYC, and similar big cities, report fewer of the crimes that actually happen than people elsewhere. But that's the sort of claim from my life-experience, including plenty of time as a child in the NY suburbs, and most of my adult life in San Francisco, that may not have handy official stats to back it up. I suspect a survey of residents, asking questions like, "have you had anything stolen that you did not file a police report about?", would reveal relative urban versus suburban or rural propensity-to-report trends here better than official crime stats – but I don't know of such a data series.
      - woodruffw 4y ago
        It's good to feel confident about things. But data is even nicer. I've never had to file a police report for theft in NYC (where I've lived for 20+ years), because I've never had anything stolen from me. Unless you count the kid who, in third grade, stole my Pokemon cartridge. But the response to that involved schoolyard justice.
        teakettle42 4y ago
        How many years have you spent in NYC as an independent adult?
        woodruffw 4y ago
        Well, I'm in my 20s, so I suspect that whatever number I give you is not going to be very useful. But "independent adult" also doesn't mean much. I was riding the subway alone by the time I was 7 or 8, and didn't have anything resembling a curfew.
  - Larrikin 4y ago
    If you don't believe the data, is there any information you would accept that doesn't support your opinion?
  - bryanrasmussen 4y ago
    Well if that's the argument then it seems we must take it on faith that NYC is more dangerous no matter what, seems a weird thing to start a religion on.
  - ryan_lane 4y ago
    Because if you want your insurance to cover your loss, you have to report it. If you were talking about petty theft, I'd agree with you, but for the most part, burglaries are nearly always reported.
  - pwinnski 4y ago
    Because insurance requires reporting for coverage? In small towns and cities all around the world, people don't report crimes for a variety of reasons. It's not clear why that would be more true in NYC than elsewhere.

Because I was too lazy to pull CompStat[1]. But here you go: * NYC recorded 6,486 burglaries in 2021, for a population of 8.38 million. That's 77.39 burglaries per 100,000 people, which makes the city's burglary rate lower than the rest of the state. * The city recorded 18,862 grand larcenies in 2021, for the same population. That's 225.08 larcenies per 100,000 people, which is also lower than the rest of the state. Both burglaries and larceny are up this year, significantly. But even if they double, NYC will still be well below national and state averages. Edit: Correcting myself: the final statistics[2] for robbery in 2021 show 12811 robberies, for a final rate of 152.88. That's still a fraction of NY state's burglary rate, which is the lowest in the nation. For grand larceny it's 487.71, which is also still below both state and national averages (by two thirds). [1]: https://compstat.nypdonline.org https://compstat.nypdonline.org [2]: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/analysis_and_planning/historical-crime-data/seven-major-felony-offenses-2000-2021.pdf https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/analysis_and_...

bobsmooth 4y ago
>Recorded burglaries As a poster above you mentioned, why report a crime if you know nothing will be done.
- woodruffw 4y ago
  Are you claiming that New Yorkers report crimes less frequently than others? It'd be great to have a source for that; absent that, there's no reason to believe that any sample error in the NYC crime data isn't similarly reflected in all crime data.
  - gojomo 4y ago
    I'm relatively confident that residents of NYC, and similar big cities, report fewer of the crimes that actually happen than people elsewhere. But that's the sort of claim from my life-experience, including plenty of time as a child in the NY suburbs, and most of my adult life in San Francisco, that may not have handy official stats to back it up. I suspect a survey of residents, asking questions like, "have you had anything stolen that you did not file a police report about?", would reveal relative urban versus suburban or rural propensity-to-report trends here better than official crime stats – but I don't know of such a data series.
    - woodruffw 4y ago
      It's good to feel confident about things. But data is even nicer. I've never had to file a police report for theft in NYC (where I've lived for 20+ years), because I've never had anything stolen from me. Unless you count the kid who, in third grade, stole my Pokemon cartridge. But the response to that involved schoolyard justice.
      - teakettle42 4y ago
        How many years have you spent in NYC as an independent adult?
        woodruffw 4y ago
        Well, I'm in my 20s, so I suspect that whatever number I give you is not going to be very useful. But "independent adult" also doesn't mean much. I was riding the subway alone by the time I was 7 or 8, and didn't have anything resembling a curfew.
- Larrikin 4y ago
  If you don't believe the data, is there any information you would accept that doesn't support your opinion?
- bryanrasmussen 4y ago
  Well if that's the argument then it seems we must take it on faith that NYC is more dangerous no matter what, seems a weird thing to start a religion on.
- ryan_lane 4y ago
  Because if you want your insurance to cover your loss, you have to report it. If you were talking about petty theft, I'd agree with you, but for the most part, burglaries are nearly always reported.
- pwinnski 4y ago
  Because insurance requires reporting for coverage? In small towns and cities all around the world, people don't report crimes for a variety of reasons. It's not clear why that would be more true in NYC than elsewhere.