5 ms·

The thesis is that we should be experimenting on how to get best results. In other words, we should treat science funding scientifically, testing hypothesis, ex

The thesis is that we should be experimenting on how to get best results. In other words, we should treat science funding scientifically, testing hypothesis, examining results and course correcting based on the evidence. To your point about inaction, from the article: """ This does not mean we should wait decades before implementing any change. Waiting for strong, crystal-clear evidence to act would be engaging in the same flawed thinking that led to the claim that “there is no evidence that masks work” which we heard last year—the costs of delays or inaction would be high. Demands for open access, “red teaming” science, or running multiple-lab reproducibility studies (be it in the social or life sciences, or elsewhere) shouldn’t get stalled by the lack of RCTs. Where there are strong theoretical considerations, indirect evidence, and broad agreement that a proposal will improve science, without a serious cost if we’re wrong, we should just go ahead in at least some cases, and assess the benefits afterwards. """ The last paragraph sums up the thesis: """ Those interested in meta-science may disagree about what the best way to reform science is, but all of us can agree that we need more evidence about the proposals being made. We have many interesting, reasonable ideas ready to be tried. It is a glaring irony that the very same institutions that enable practitioners of the scientific method to do their work don’t apply that same method to themselves. It is time to change that. """

fiprofessor 4y ago
Do people really find the thing mentioned in the last paragraph that ironic? To be honest, I do not (except, maybe, if the scientists are economists who work in industrial organization, or something). Many natural scientists I know are deeply skeptical of our ability to accrue this kind of subtle knowledge about complex human processes and social organizations through experiments...
thrown_22 4y ago
>. Waiting for strong, crystal-clear evidence to act would be engaging in the same flawed thinking that led to the claim that “there is no evidence that masks work” which we heard last year—the costs of delays or inaction would be high. We are getting a real time test to the question of if mask mandates work in the wild: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-22/nz-jacinda-ardern-covid-zero-destroyed-by-omicron/101246908 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-22/nz-jacinda-ardern-cov... Australia has no mask mandates, NZ does. NZ has a higher death and hospitalization rate than Australia. The answer is that it's health theater on par with shoe removal at airports. Of course we have the typical bait and switch of pretending that masks as used in an operation theater are in any way the same as the crumpled cloth mask from your pocket.
- abetusk 4y ago
  I don't really know what you're talking about. NZ looks to me to have a lower death rate than Australia. See [0]. I haven't done a deep dive of the literature but from what I understand wearing face masks is pretty well established to correlate with lower infection rates. A Google search gives [1] which seems pretty reputable to me. It sounds like you're picking a fight about your personal cause celebre? The original article is talking about trying to figure out how to build evidence. The underlying assumption is that once you have evidence, you use it to inform decisions. You're pushing a false narrative by not only ignoring evidence but also misinterpreting or lying about the evidence that's available. [0] https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths&location=Australia&location=New+Zealand https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths&location=Austra... [1] https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/Documents/nCoV/COVID-WWKSF/2022/03/wwksf-mask-mandates-population-level-outcomes.pdf?sc_lang=en https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/Documents/nCoV/CO...
  - mike_hearn 4y ago
    He mentioned masks because the article itself uses masks as an example of a belief the author claims is false, as cited in the post above. By the way, lots of people believe masks don't work. You can line up places that differ only by mask mandate status and observe that the case curves are the same. There are many situations like that, but in theory you only need one to disprove the claim that mask mandates (always) work. The case against masks is made by Ian Miller in this book: https://www.amazon.com/Unmasked-Global-Failure-COVID-Mandates/dp/1637583761 https://www.amazon.com/Unmasked-Global-Failure-COVID-Mandate...
  - thrown_22 4y ago
    >You're pushing a false narrative by not only ignoring evidence but also misinterpreting or lying about the evidence that's available. In the past month Australia has not had a mask mandate, NZ has. NZ has had more than twice the per-capita deaths and hospitalization of Australia. If masks worked it should have been the reverse. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/new-zealand https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/new-zealand

fiprofessor 4y ago

Do people really find the thing mentioned in the last paragraph that ironic? To be honest, I do not (except, maybe, if the scientists are economists who work in industrial organization, or something). Many natural scientists I know are deeply skeptical of our ability to accrue this kind of subtle knowledge about complex human processes and social organizations through experiments...

thrown_22 4y ago

>. Waiting for strong, crystal-clear evidence to act would be engaging in the same flawed thinking that led to the claim that “there is no evidence that masks work” which we heard last year—the costs of delays or inaction would be high. We are getting a real time test to the question of if mask mandates work in the wild: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-22/nz-jacinda-ardern-covid-zero-destroyed-by-omicron/101246908 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-22/nz-jacinda-ardern-cov... Australia has no mask mandates, NZ does. NZ has a higher death and hospitalization rate than Australia. The answer is that it's health theater on par with shoe removal at airports. Of course we have the typical bait and switch of pretending that masks as used in an operation theater are in any way the same as the crumpled cloth mask from your pocket.

abetusk 4y ago
I don't really know what you're talking about. NZ looks to me to have a lower death rate than Australia. See [0]. I haven't done a deep dive of the literature but from what I understand wearing face masks is pretty well established to correlate with lower infection rates. A Google search gives [1] which seems pretty reputable to me. It sounds like you're picking a fight about your personal cause celebre? The original article is talking about trying to figure out how to build evidence. The underlying assumption is that once you have evidence, you use it to inform decisions. You're pushing a false narrative by not only ignoring evidence but also misinterpreting or lying about the evidence that's available. [0] https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths&location=Australia&location=New+Zealand https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths&location=Austra... [1] https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/Documents/nCoV/COVID-WWKSF/2022/03/wwksf-mask-mandates-population-level-outcomes.pdf?sc_lang=en https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/Documents/nCoV/CO...
- mike_hearn 4y ago
  He mentioned masks because the article itself uses masks as an example of a belief the author claims is false, as cited in the post above. By the way, lots of people believe masks don't work. You can line up places that differ only by mask mandate status and observe that the case curves are the same. There are many situations like that, but in theory you only need one to disprove the claim that mask mandates (always) work. The case against masks is made by Ian Miller in this book: https://www.amazon.com/Unmasked-Global-Failure-COVID-Mandates/dp/1637583761 https://www.amazon.com/Unmasked-Global-Failure-COVID-Mandate...
- thrown_22 4y ago
  >You're pushing a false narrative by not only ignoring evidence but also misinterpreting or lying about the evidence that's available. In the past month Australia has not had a mask mandate, NZ has. NZ has had more than twice the per-capita deaths and hospitalization of Australia. If masks worked it should have been the reverse. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/new-zealand https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/new-zealand