3 ms·
The delta between this and "Will Elon Musk buy Twitter this year?" [1] is pretty interesting to me. I would interpret this as that in the minority of people tha
by bragr 4y ago
The delta between this and "Will Elon Musk buy Twitter this year?" [1] is pretty interesting to me. I would interpret this as that in the minority of people that think it will close, a majority of them think it will happen soon (presumably the court orders specific performance and Musk rolls over), and a minority thinks it will drag out (appeals, etc presumably).
[1] https://manifold.markets/SG/will-elon-musk-buy-twitter-this-yea https://manifold.markets/SG/will-elon-musk-buy-twitter-this-...
- cosmojg 4y agoLooks like ~45% probability that the deal closes before January 1st, 2024 versus ~27% probability that it closes before January 1st, 2023. So 3:2 odds that, if it closes, it will close this year rather than next.