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I have two major critiques here: 1. There's no reason to think the criminal invasion of Ukraine will result in victory for Ukraine. The Russians will fall shor

I have two major critiques here: 1. There's no reason to think the criminal invasion of Ukraine will result in victory for Ukraine. The Russians will fall short of their maximal goals, but they're having significant battlefield successes now. Sometimes, criminal invasions are completely successful. In this case, I suspect that a long, low-intensity conflict with two entrenched sides is the most likely outcome. 2. This is not the greatest atrocity of our generation. There have been at least three invasions and occupations that are significantly worse crimes: the US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, and the Saudi-led invasion of Yemen. All three have led to the total destruction and failure of the invaded state. Ukraine has lost territory and there has been substantial suffering, but it has not been nearly on the same scale and the social disruption has not, at least yet, been anywhere near as significant. I bring this up because moral consistency is important. Just as we should endorse the right of the Ukrainians to defend themselves from criminal aggression, we must also endorse the same rights for other peoples. And we should be making the same calls, or not, for the aggressor states in these crimes to have their cultural influences purged from law-abiding societies.

keewee7 4y ago
>This is not the greatest atrocity of our generation. There have been at least three invasions and occupations that are significantly worse crimes: the US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan That depends on what numbers you're going to believe about civilian fatalities in Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen etc. It is often claimed that the Iraq War killed anywhere from 0.5 million to over 1.0 million Iraqis. However these big numbers don't make much sense considering that large scale aerial bombings and artillery strikes stopped after a month into the war and large-scale ground operations stopped after the second battle of Fallujah in 2004. The Iraqis then suffered a horrific decade of weekly and monthly sectarian terror attacks. However adding all the civilian fatalities from the US invasion and the decade of sectarian violence still doesn't add up to ~100,000 and not anywhere near the "millions" range. Don't get me wrong. The people who started the Iraq War are war criminals. However it doesn't make sense to compare the most widely exaggerated estimates from the 10+ year Iraq War with the current UN confirmed counting of civilian fatalities in the 5 month war in Ukraine. If we go by confirmed civilian fatalities Russia is currently killing Ukrainian civilians at a faster pace than anytime during the Iraq War.
- kieselguhr_kid 4y ago
  The study of Iraqi deaths is ongoing and I suspect that the confirmed civilian casualties from direct violence is an undercount, but regardless we should also be counting excess deaths caused by the deterioration of the country's infrastructure. That's a direct result of the war. It does mean we have no good way of counting the dead in Ukraine yet and won't for years. That said, the Ukrainian state has survived and is continuing to provide civilian services. Ukraine still produces plenty of electricity (it is even exporting it), and still is able to provide food, healthcare, water, and other essentials. There are tight supplies for some things, like gasoline and some medicines, which is awful. Contrast that to the devastation after the American invasion of Iraq, the starvation in Yemen, or the chaos in Afghanistan. Iraq still has spotty electricity and deals with violent incursions, and the war has spilled into Syria. Yemeni deaths have been horrific, but equally bad has been the widespread hunger and extreme poverty the war has thrust millions into. I just don't see that kind of suffering in Ukraine. At least not yet. If the war continues at this level of intensity and Ukraine collapses entirely, which I find unlikely (indeed, the level of intensity and casualties is already down significantly from its peak in March) I'll reassess.
  - ROTMetro 4y ago
    - kieselguhr_kid 4y ago
      The displacement of Ukrainian children is awful, but also occurred in all these other conflicts. The flow of refugees is also awful, as is the imposition of the conqueror's ideology, but that happened in Iraq too. All the other effects are speculative and caused as much by US/EU sanctions (which have historically never accomplished their goals and have not had their intended effect even in this conflict) as they are by the invasion. I'm not saying the war in Ukraine isn't a horrendous war crime. It absolutely is. But it just hasn't reached the scale of the other conflicts I mentioned, and I suspect that the fact that white Europeans are suffering instead of Arabs or central Asians is the root of this overemphasis.
qaq 4y ago
I have 1 major critique: What "major" battlefield successes?
- kieselguhr_kid 4y ago
  The taking of Mariupol, all of Luhansk and most of Donetsk have been successes. They've been hard fought, grinding successes, but successes nonetheless.
  - ROTMetro 4y ago
    Russia controls less territory today than it did in March, yet I am told that Ukraine losing territory in July is losing, Russia losing more territory and not recovering it in March is not Russia losing. Funny goal posts seem to get used a lot in this conflict.
  - qaq 4y ago
    They don't control all of Luhansk and they don't control most of Donetsk oblast. I'd lay off from russian TV for a bit :) The goal was to take Kyiv in 3 days and install puppet government they have not accomplished that and have not taken a single major city in Ukraine despite Kharkiv being 40km from the border. So no for self proclaimed worlds 2nd army they have not accomplished a single strategic goal let alone the goal of the campaign.
    - kieselguhr_kid 4y ago
      They haven't taken a single major city in Ukraine except Kherson and Mariupol, two major Ukrainian cities. JFC.
      - qaq 4y ago
        Kherson population is 280K people Mariupol 400k Major city would be Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnepr, Odessa or Lviv
riku_iki 4y ago
> There have been at least three invasions and occupations that are significantly worse crimes: the US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, and the Saudi-led invasion of Yemen. All three have led to the total destruction and failure of the invaded state Your opinion is very one-sided and misses many details: - Iraq is currently relatively peaceful democracy after decades of tirany and wars (Iran-Iraq war caused 1M deaths) - Afghanistan under US rule demonstrated significant economic, demographic and human rights growth - Yemen civil war started with Iran backed shiite houthis took power by force in country with majority of suni population, and Saudis reacted on this
- kieselguhr_kid 4y ago
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        kieselguhr_kid 4y ago
        riku_iki 4y ago
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ROTMetro 4y ago
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- kieselguhr_kid 4y ago
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keewee7 4y ago

>This is not the greatest atrocity of our generation. There have been at least three invasions and occupations that are significantly worse crimes: the US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan That depends on what numbers you're going to believe about civilian fatalities in Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen etc. It is often claimed that the Iraq War killed anywhere from 0.5 million to over 1.0 million Iraqis. However these big numbers don't make much sense considering that large scale aerial bombings and artillery strikes stopped after a month into the war and large-scale ground operations stopped after the second battle of Fallujah in 2004. The Iraqis then suffered a horrific decade of weekly and monthly sectarian terror attacks. However adding all the civilian fatalities from the US invasion and the decade of sectarian violence still doesn't add up to ~100,000 and not anywhere near the "millions" range. Don't get me wrong. The people who started the Iraq War are war criminals. However it doesn't make sense to compare the most widely exaggerated estimates from the 10+ year Iraq War with the current UN confirmed counting of civilian fatalities in the 5 month war in Ukraine. If we go by confirmed civilian fatalities Russia is currently killing Ukrainian civilians at a faster pace than anytime during the Iraq War.

kieselguhr_kid 4y ago
The study of Iraqi deaths is ongoing and I suspect that the confirmed civilian casualties from direct violence is an undercount, but regardless we should also be counting excess deaths caused by the deterioration of the country's infrastructure. That's a direct result of the war. It does mean we have no good way of counting the dead in Ukraine yet and won't for years. That said, the Ukrainian state has survived and is continuing to provide civilian services. Ukraine still produces plenty of electricity (it is even exporting it), and still is able to provide food, healthcare, water, and other essentials. There are tight supplies for some things, like gasoline and some medicines, which is awful. Contrast that to the devastation after the American invasion of Iraq, the starvation in Yemen, or the chaos in Afghanistan. Iraq still has spotty electricity and deals with violent incursions, and the war has spilled into Syria. Yemeni deaths have been horrific, but equally bad has been the widespread hunger and extreme poverty the war has thrust millions into. I just don't see that kind of suffering in Ukraine. At least not yet. If the war continues at this level of intensity and Ukraine collapses entirely, which I find unlikely (indeed, the level of intensity and casualties is already down significantly from its peak in March) I'll reassess.
- ROTMetro 4y ago
  - kieselguhr_kid 4y ago
    The displacement of Ukrainian children is awful, but also occurred in all these other conflicts. The flow of refugees is also awful, as is the imposition of the conqueror's ideology, but that happened in Iraq too. All the other effects are speculative and caused as much by US/EU sanctions (which have historically never accomplished their goals and have not had their intended effect even in this conflict) as they are by the invasion. I'm not saying the war in Ukraine isn't a horrendous war crime. It absolutely is. But it just hasn't reached the scale of the other conflicts I mentioned, and I suspect that the fact that white Europeans are suffering instead of Arabs or central Asians is the root of this overemphasis.

qaq 4y ago

I have 1 major critique: What "major" battlefield successes?

kieselguhr_kid 4y ago
The taking of Mariupol, all of Luhansk and most of Donetsk have been successes. They've been hard fought, grinding successes, but successes nonetheless.
- ROTMetro 4y ago
  Russia controls less territory today than it did in March, yet I am told that Ukraine losing territory in July is losing, Russia losing more territory and not recovering it in March is not Russia losing. Funny goal posts seem to get used a lot in this conflict.
- qaq 4y ago
  They don't control all of Luhansk and they don't control most of Donetsk oblast. I'd lay off from russian TV for a bit :) The goal was to take Kyiv in 3 days and install puppet government they have not accomplished that and have not taken a single major city in Ukraine despite Kharkiv being 40km from the border. So no for self proclaimed worlds 2nd army they have not accomplished a single strategic goal let alone the goal of the campaign.
  - kieselguhr_kid 4y ago
    They haven't taken a single major city in Ukraine except Kherson and Mariupol, two major Ukrainian cities. JFC.
    - qaq 4y ago
      Kherson population is 280K people Mariupol 400k Major city would be Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnepr, Odessa or Lviv

riku_iki 4y ago

> There have been at least three invasions and occupations that are significantly worse crimes: the US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, and the Saudi-led invasion of Yemen. All three have led to the total destruction and failure of the invaded state Your opinion is very one-sided and misses many details: - Iraq is currently relatively peaceful democracy after decades of tirany and wars (Iran-Iraq war caused 1M deaths) - Afghanistan under US rule demonstrated significant economic, demographic and human rights growth - Yemen civil war started with Iran backed shiite houthis took power by force in country with majority of suni population, and Saudis reacted on this

kieselguhr_kid 4y ago
- riku_iki 4y ago
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        riku_iki 4y ago
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ROTMetro 4y ago

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kieselguhr_kid 4y ago
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- ROTMetro 4y ago
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