4 ms·

The only industry I wouldn't want to be in now is Crypto. Everything else, it's just a blip. Upward and onward. Be greedy when others are fearful etc

spaceman_2020 4y ago
Ironically, crypto VCs are sitting on a lot of dry powder and the narrative is much stronger (WEB3! METAVERSE!) since it is completely detached from reality. In situations like these where the wealthy still have a ton of money, it is far better to be in a business that a) the wealthy don't understand, and b) is so outlandish that you can't assign a hard value to it. If you make $1 in profit, then investors can assign it a hard value (10-15x ARR). If you make $0 in profit, then investors can spin up narratives about your "potential".
MangoCoffee 4y ago
start up is probably not a good place to be. if Peter Zeihan is right about population and boomers. our world is shrinking with less young people for consumption, boomers retiring and taking their money to less risky investment. the money that prop up start up could be dry pretty soon.
- toomuchtodo 4y ago
  Healthcare, energy, government should be safe. I spent a year at a DOE lab during an economic crisis. The pay sucked but the checks cleared.
  - ghaff 4y ago
    >The pay sucked but the checks cleared. That's really the calculation people need to make. At a large tech employer? How are they doing? Is what you're working on strategic? Do you seem to be valued or are you maybe a bit on the bubble? Depending on the answers, it may make sense to stay put or it may make sense to find a life raft even if it isn't as cushy in some ways as where you are. And, as someone else noted, industries aren't homogeneous. Individual employers matter.
    - pastor_bob 4y ago
      Well, these people are getting at least 16 weeks severance. 4 months paid to grind at interviews. Then unemployment after. I wouldn't worry too much if I were at a similar company. Getting laid off during Covid was a boon for many people
      - ghaff 4y ago
        It's certainly a nice severance package for this day and age. That said, hiring is pretty broadly more selective right now and may well become more so. During dot-bomb, I got lucky and landed another (lower paying) job with someone I knew at a small company. But there were a lot of people who were out of work or underemployed for a long time. And some I knew on the older side never really recovered I think.
    - toomuchtodo 4y ago
      I had lost a job at the time (company dissolved) and had been unemployed for six months by the time the offer was extended, so the choice was easy. If you currently have a high income job and a robust emergency fund, you can make other choices.

spaceman_2020 4y ago

Ironically, crypto VCs are sitting on a lot of dry powder and the narrative is much stronger (WEB3! METAVERSE!) since it is completely detached from reality. In situations like these where the wealthy still have a ton of money, it is far better to be in a business that a) the wealthy don't understand, and b) is so outlandish that you can't assign a hard value to it. If you make $1 in profit, then investors can assign it a hard value (10-15x ARR). If you make $0 in profit, then investors can spin up narratives about your "potential".

MangoCoffee 4y ago

start up is probably not a good place to be. if Peter Zeihan is right about population and boomers. our world is shrinking with less young people for consumption, boomers retiring and taking their money to less risky investment. the money that prop up start up could be dry pretty soon.

toomuchtodo 4y ago
Healthcare, energy, government should be safe. I spent a year at a DOE lab during an economic crisis. The pay sucked but the checks cleared.
- ghaff 4y ago
  >The pay sucked but the checks cleared. That's really the calculation people need to make. At a large tech employer? How are they doing? Is what you're working on strategic? Do you seem to be valued or are you maybe a bit on the bubble? Depending on the answers, it may make sense to stay put or it may make sense to find a life raft even if it isn't as cushy in some ways as where you are. And, as someone else noted, industries aren't homogeneous. Individual employers matter.
  - pastor_bob 4y ago
    Well, these people are getting at least 16 weeks severance. 4 months paid to grind at interviews. Then unemployment after. I wouldn't worry too much if I were at a similar company. Getting laid off during Covid was a boon for many people
    - ghaff 4y ago
      It's certainly a nice severance package for this day and age. That said, hiring is pretty broadly more selective right now and may well become more so. During dot-bomb, I got lucky and landed another (lower paying) job with someone I knew at a small company. But there were a lot of people who were out of work or underemployed for a long time. And some I knew on the older side never really recovered I think.
  - toomuchtodo 4y ago
    I had lost a job at the time (company dissolved) and had been unemployed for six months by the time the offer was extended, so the choice was easy. If you currently have a high income job and a robust emergency fund, you can make other choices.