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> My newsletter is the #1 paid technology newsletter on Substack. good for you but is this another survivorship bias thing... reminds me of the 4-hour workwee

> My newsletter is the #1 paid technology newsletter on Substack. good for you but is this another survivorship bias thing... reminds me of the 4-hour workweek, getting rich by giving advice others how to get rich added: if you try to be in the creator economy, you will always be at the whim of some gatekeeper like youtube or instagram who can erase 90% of your income in an instant

jamestimmins 4y ago
How is this survivorship bias?
- 5350-uiop-1130 4y ago
  the article begins with the qualification of being the "number 1 newsletter on substack" so there is a logical error of assuming that the advice given is more valuable or actionable - which imo it isn't, after reading the article.
- nokya 4y ago
  Because the successful trajectory (the survivor trajectory) is being analyzed on the assumption that if its attributes/variables can be reverse engineered, then the sequence can be reproduced by others (i.e., others will survive, too). Some additional info if the topics interests you: Survivor bias can be described as both a cognitive and motivational bias. First, it relies on the widespread conception amongst human beings that reproducing someone else's trajectory/decisions eventually leads to an equivalent outcome (cognitive error). Second, we all share a profound need to feel that we understand the world that surrounds us (motivational). Think about the alternative: without this bias, we would be consciously aware that our success (or survival) cannot be singularly attributed to our effort or our ability to reproduce trusted strategies. This would likely push us towards feeling increasingly powerless in our ability to achieve our goals (or survive), and eventually drive us into a depressive state (the "whatever" mindset). At this precise moment I should bring religion to the discussion, but I will not because it will take me too much time. Self-help literature almost exclusively operates by exploiting the survivor at two levels: authors often are themselves convinced that anyone who reproduces their recommendations will be similarly successful, and at the reader level, because without people telling us that we can succeed, there would be simply no hope. Hope I answered your question :)

jamestimmins 4y ago

How is this survivorship bias?

5350-uiop-1130 4y ago
the article begins with the qualification of being the "number 1 newsletter on substack" so there is a logical error of assuming that the advice given is more valuable or actionable - which imo it isn't, after reading the article.
nokya 4y ago
Because the successful trajectory (the survivor trajectory) is being analyzed on the assumption that if its attributes/variables can be reverse engineered, then the sequence can be reproduced by others (i.e., others will survive, too). Some additional info if the topics interests you: Survivor bias can be described as both a cognitive and motivational bias. First, it relies on the widespread conception amongst human beings that reproducing someone else's trajectory/decisions eventually leads to an equivalent outcome (cognitive error). Second, we all share a profound need to feel that we understand the world that surrounds us (motivational). Think about the alternative: without this bias, we would be consciously aware that our success (or survival) cannot be singularly attributed to our effort or our ability to reproduce trusted strategies. This would likely push us towards feeling increasingly powerless in our ability to achieve our goals (or survive), and eventually drive us into a depressive state (the "whatever" mindset). At this precise moment I should bring religion to the discussion, but I will not because it will take me too much time. Self-help literature almost exclusively operates by exploiting the survivor at two levels: authors often are themselves convinced that anyone who reproduces their recommendations will be similarly successful, and at the reader level, because without people telling us that we can succeed, there would be simply no hope. Hope I answered your question :)