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> There are only two things propping up the entire crypto economy, VC funding and fraud. Once the VC money leaves the ecosystem the dominoes will fall. Agreed,

> There are only two things propping up the entire crypto economy, VC funding and fraud. Once the VC money leaves the ecosystem the dominoes will fall. Agreed, web3 was a joke... but the same thing can be said about most of disruptive tech like ride-sharing or food delivery, and even FAANGS are experiencing immense markdowns after the immense amount of liquidity poured into the stock market these 2 years. Being critical of the nature of this system also requires self-awareness; otherwise it's just projecting.

pg_bot 4y ago
I've done my due diligence, there is no future in web3. I don't disparage early VCs who invested in blockchain startups because it is their job to put money into companies that could be revolutionary. However, the revolution has failed to materialize. While it may not be obvious to all it should become clearer in the coming months. When I say 'fraud' I don't mean juicing the numbers or asking forgiveness instead or permission. I'm not talking about things that will receive a slap on the wrist or a fine from a regulator. There is a great deal of organized crime that is the backbone of the industry. A lot of people will deserve to go to prison when the music stops.
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  web3 is going to thrive whether you like it or not. Primarily because of three reasons: - Greed. Its absurdly easy to make a ton of money very fast in crypto. As long as that's possible, money will keep pouring into the system. - Gambling. The global gambling industry is half a trillion every year. Even if you think crypto has no fundamentals and is akin to gambling, it still represents a massive market. Opening a 50x long on a random shitcoin might be the same as yoloing in $10,000 at the roulette table. If the latter can happen sustainably, the former can as well. - Principles. Crypto/web3/blockchain - whatever you might call it - will continue to attract people at the edge cases simply because of the principles and narratives behind it. Self-sovreignity, privacy, ownership - these are ideas worth pursuing. If "web2" hadn't shut off its own users from any semblance of ownership in the platforms, or had done more for privacy, web3 would have died in 2017. But because they didn't, web3 will continue to find users simply because of the "privacy + self-ownership" narrative. More than anything else, I see the massive amounts of money flowing into web3 as a failure of the web2 platforms. If Facebook wasn't such a scummy company, and if Google wasn't tracking everything I do so maliciously, I would have completely ignored web3 as an idea.
  - TomSwirly 4y ago
    > Its absurdly easy to make a ton of money very fast in crypto. Not at all. It's easy for one person to make a lot of money _at the expense of another_. It's a less than zero sum game, though, so each net transaction _cost_ people money todal. > Self-sovreignity, privacy, ownership - these are ideas worth pursuing. The ability to evade government regulations and scrutiny is crime. The underlying idea is that you don't like the laws on financial disclosure, so you want to "get around" them. As an honest citizen, I see the desire to evade the securities laws as literally criminal intent, which it legally is.
  - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
    > long as that's possible, money will keep pouring into the system This was an easy-money phenomenon. We have another rates announcement today. I expect crypto to respond like the clockwork leveraged risk asset it models. > global gambling industry is half a trillion every year This is a good analogy. It’s one I hear in legislative and regulatory halls in the U.S. and Europe, the money centres crypto depends on for its legal demand. The VCs largely have downside protection. Retail with get screwed but it’s a risk asset; they always get screwed late cycle and we have resolution mechanisms for that. Crypto company employees, however, stand to be boned. It’s unclear where the legal risk winds up. My bet is the first layer that has not been talking to lawyers so far. That includes dumb executives and naïve employees working for savvy ones.
    - ejanus 4y ago
      Would stock markets be jumpy after rates announcement?
      - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
        > Would stock markets be jumpy after rates announcement? “Announcement effects appear somewhat ambiguous for the [British] stock market” [1]. For the last year, it’s largely been high P/E tech stocks that have reacted viciously to rates announcements. The rest of the market is less sensitive to small changes in rates (jargon: duration). And/or it’s better at pricing it in ex ante. [1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1057521904001000 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S10575...
- ejanus 4y ago
  Do you have concrete details?

pg_bot 4y ago

I've done my due diligence, there is no future in web3. I don't disparage early VCs who invested in blockchain startups because it is their job to put money into companies that could be revolutionary. However, the revolution has failed to materialize. While it may not be obvious to all it should become clearer in the coming months. When I say 'fraud' I don't mean juicing the numbers or asking forgiveness instead or permission. I'm not talking about things that will receive a slap on the wrist or a fine from a regulator. There is a great deal of organized crime that is the backbone of the industry. A lot of people will deserve to go to prison when the music stops.

spaceman_2020 4y ago
web3 is going to thrive whether you like it or not. Primarily because of three reasons: - Greed. Its absurdly easy to make a ton of money very fast in crypto. As long as that's possible, money will keep pouring into the system. - Gambling. The global gambling industry is half a trillion every year. Even if you think crypto has no fundamentals and is akin to gambling, it still represents a massive market. Opening a 50x long on a random shitcoin might be the same as yoloing in $10,000 at the roulette table. If the latter can happen sustainably, the former can as well. - Principles. Crypto/web3/blockchain - whatever you might call it - will continue to attract people at the edge cases simply because of the principles and narratives behind it. Self-sovreignity, privacy, ownership - these are ideas worth pursuing. If "web2" hadn't shut off its own users from any semblance of ownership in the platforms, or had done more for privacy, web3 would have died in 2017. But because they didn't, web3 will continue to find users simply because of the "privacy + self-ownership" narrative. More than anything else, I see the massive amounts of money flowing into web3 as a failure of the web2 platforms. If Facebook wasn't such a scummy company, and if Google wasn't tracking everything I do so maliciously, I would have completely ignored web3 as an idea.
- TomSwirly 4y ago
  > Its absurdly easy to make a ton of money very fast in crypto. Not at all. It's easy for one person to make a lot of money _at the expense of another_. It's a less than zero sum game, though, so each net transaction _cost_ people money todal. > Self-sovreignity, privacy, ownership - these are ideas worth pursuing. The ability to evade government regulations and scrutiny is crime. The underlying idea is that you don't like the laws on financial disclosure, so you want to "get around" them. As an honest citizen, I see the desire to evade the securities laws as literally criminal intent, which it legally is.
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > long as that's possible, money will keep pouring into the system This was an easy-money phenomenon. We have another rates announcement today. I expect crypto to respond like the clockwork leveraged risk asset it models. > global gambling industry is half a trillion every year This is a good analogy. It’s one I hear in legislative and regulatory halls in the U.S. and Europe, the money centres crypto depends on for its legal demand. The VCs largely have downside protection. Retail with get screwed but it’s a risk asset; they always get screwed late cycle and we have resolution mechanisms for that. Crypto company employees, however, stand to be boned. It’s unclear where the legal risk winds up. My bet is the first layer that has not been talking to lawyers so far. That includes dumb executives and naïve employees working for savvy ones.
  - ejanus 4y ago
    Would stock markets be jumpy after rates announcement?
    - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
      > Would stock markets be jumpy after rates announcement? “Announcement effects appear somewhat ambiguous for the [British] stock market” [1]. For the last year, it’s largely been high P/E tech stocks that have reacted viciously to rates announcements. The rest of the market is less sensitive to small changes in rates (jargon: duration). And/or it’s better at pricing it in ex ante. [1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1057521904001000 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S10575...
ejanus 4y ago
Do you have concrete details?