3 ms·

Russia to cut Nord Stream 1 gas flow to 20% of capacity

17 points by ushakov 4y ago

Normille 4y ago
Arnt 4y ago
I'm an expat in Germany and read the papers. Allow me to summarise a fairly typical local story. The local stories read differently than the national/foreign news. From a regionally large bakery chain: "We use gas-fired bread ovens and many of our competitors do too, so in this area, 59% of the bread sold depends on gas" and then some elaboration, and in the last paragraph it turns out that two of that bakery's three bread oven complexes still have the old oil-fired furnaces, which they don't want to reactivate because of increased CO₂ emissions but they are there. The article didn't say that two oil furnaces would be enough, but it also didn't say that it would be too little. And neither did it say anything about the other big bakery chains. It did say that reducing the number of different breads baked helped use less gas. I'm not sure. But I think there's a ~50% chance that this winter, the saunas are going to be closed (pity, I love going to the sauna), the bakeries will have a reduced selection of bread and throw less bread away at the end of the day, and there'll be a smaller variety of cheese too and probably more. And that's all. That's the heavy reliance. The Germans are good at planning. Meanwhile Russia loses the tax income from its biggest taxpayer and finding new customers for that gas will not be easy.
- postalrat 4y ago
  I think you are underestimating the effect this will have on Germany. Germany and Russia are both going to be hurt the worst from this. Be prepared for crazy energy costs and possibly days or weeks of shutdowns.
- rasz 4y ago
  >And that's all. you forgot all the Scholz lies (some EU wide moratorium on not delivering heavy weapons while Poland was sending tanks), all the help Scholz promised to Ukraine and never delivered (out of ammo, dealers dont have inventory, manufacturer refused, its difficult, we need to refurbish ourselves, it will only take 6 months), plus his direct vocal support for removing sanctions against Russia and bending backwards for Canada to break embargo. Yes, a bit less varied bread selection might be the peak of German consequences, but more people are dying in Ukraine because of German politicians and 30 years of decisions leading up to this moment. This war is financed by Germans. Btw remember Wirecard? Jan Marsalek lives in Moscow now, under special care of FSB.
  - Arnt 4y ago
    This war is financed by Germans? I've heard similar things before but this one made me google for numbers. Russia exports mostly crude oil, gas, refined oil, metals and that kind of thing. Germany's one of the biggest customers, at 8.5% of the crude oil and 4.6% of the refined, a similar percentage of gas but I closed the tab, and 4.3% of Russia's total exports. 5-10% of the money flowing into Putin's coffers is a lot, certainly one of the biggest contributors, but I have a feeling that you've lost sight of the other 90-95%.
- 2143 4y ago
  > The Germans are good at planning. > throw less bread away at the end of the day Is throwing bread away part of the existing plan?
  - Arnt 4y ago
    Yes, in a sense. Flour and other inputs cost roughly 7% of the final price of a bread in Germany. The bulk of the cost is for equipment from kneading machines to delivery vans, salaries, rents and so on. So if you're a baker and have a bread oven with a capacity to bake 1000 loaves of a particular kind of bread and you typically sell 700-800, it makes sense to bake 800 every day and expect to discard 50 on average. You don't know whether tomorrow is a day on which customers will walk into your shops and ask for 800 of that bread. You can try to guess (and bakers do) but you don't know. Your loss if you bake 800 and sell 700 is only 7% of the income you forgo by baking 700 if customers ask for 800, so it makes sense to bake a few more than you're likely to sell, and plan to throw those away.
rasz 4y ago
Cue people vehemently disbelieving in this possibility 15 days ago in "Russian gas flows to Europe (berthub.eu)" thread.

17 points by ushakov 4y ago

Arnt 4y ago

I'm an expat in Germany and read the papers. Allow me to summarise a fairly typical local story. The local stories read differently than the national/foreign news. From a regionally large bakery chain: "We use gas-fired bread ovens and many of our competitors do too, so in this area, 59% of the bread sold depends on gas" and then some elaboration, and in the last paragraph it turns out that two of that bakery's three bread oven complexes still have the old oil-fired furnaces, which they don't want to reactivate because of increased CO₂ emissions but they are there. The article didn't say that two oil furnaces would be enough, but it also didn't say that it would be too little. And neither did it say anything about the other big bakery chains. It did say that reducing the number of different breads baked helped use less gas. I'm not sure. But I think there's a ~50% chance that this winter, the saunas are going to be closed (pity, I love going to the sauna), the bakeries will have a reduced selection of bread and throw less bread away at the end of the day, and there'll be a smaller variety of cheese too and probably more. And that's all. That's the heavy reliance. The Germans are good at planning. Meanwhile Russia loses the tax income from its biggest taxpayer and finding new customers for that gas will not be easy.

postalrat 4y ago
I think you are underestimating the effect this will have on Germany. Germany and Russia are both going to be hurt the worst from this. Be prepared for crazy energy costs and possibly days or weeks of shutdowns.
rasz 4y ago
>And that's all. you forgot all the Scholz lies (some EU wide moratorium on not delivering heavy weapons while Poland was sending tanks), all the help Scholz promised to Ukraine and never delivered (out of ammo, dealers dont have inventory, manufacturer refused, its difficult, we need to refurbish ourselves, it will only take 6 months), plus his direct vocal support for removing sanctions against Russia and bending backwards for Canada to break embargo. Yes, a bit less varied bread selection might be the peak of German consequences, but more people are dying in Ukraine because of German politicians and 30 years of decisions leading up to this moment. This war is financed by Germans. Btw remember Wirecard? Jan Marsalek lives in Moscow now, under special care of FSB.
- Arnt 4y ago
  This war is financed by Germans? I've heard similar things before but this one made me google for numbers. Russia exports mostly crude oil, gas, refined oil, metals and that kind of thing. Germany's one of the biggest customers, at 8.5% of the crude oil and 4.6% of the refined, a similar percentage of gas but I closed the tab, and 4.3% of Russia's total exports. 5-10% of the money flowing into Putin's coffers is a lot, certainly one of the biggest contributors, but I have a feeling that you've lost sight of the other 90-95%.
2143 4y ago
> The Germans are good at planning. > throw less bread away at the end of the day Is throwing bread away part of the existing plan?
- Arnt 4y ago
  Yes, in a sense. Flour and other inputs cost roughly 7% of the final price of a bread in Germany. The bulk of the cost is for equipment from kneading machines to delivery vans, salaries, rents and so on. So if you're a baker and have a bread oven with a capacity to bake 1000 loaves of a particular kind of bread and you typically sell 700-800, it makes sense to bake 800 every day and expect to discard 50 on average. You don't know whether tomorrow is a day on which customers will walk into your shops and ask for 800 of that bread. You can try to guess (and bakers do) but you don't know. Your loss if you bake 800 and sell 700 is only 7% of the income you forgo by baking 700 if customers ask for 800, so it makes sense to bake a few more than you're likely to sell, and plan to throw those away.

rasz 4y ago

Cue people vehemently disbelieving in this possibility 15 days ago in "Russian gas flows to Europe (berthub.eu)" thread.