5 ms·

How does Japan do this successfully?

by Ancalagon 4y ago

endisneigh 4y ago
Dwindling population
- ElFitz 4y ago
  They also never stop building. And when they do stop, it’s only to tear down a building so they can build another one in it’s place.
StevePerkins 4y ago
Because their population is shrinking rather than growing, and they effectively disallow immigration? Japan is a deflationary case study.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- Ancalagon 4y ago
  How does Japan do this successfully in Tokyo (which was until recently, growing in population)? https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14538387#:~:text=Tokyo's%20population%20reached%2010%20million,and%2014%20million%20in%202019 https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14538387#:~:text=Tokyo's%.... https://japanpropertycentral.com/tag/average-rent-tokyo/ https://japanpropertycentral.com/tag/average-rent-tokyo/
  - lotsofpulp 4y ago
    People are OK with leaders making decisions that result in them living in accommodations that people in the US and other western countries would deem unacceptable, mainly relating to quantity of livi by space and storage and usage of personal cars.
ptomato 4y ago
They let people build things.
dexwiz 4y ago
Japan has a completely different view on housing. Houses in Japan are made with the expectation of being torn down [1]. This causes all sorts of secondary and tertiary effects different from the European model of buildings lasting for centuries. [1] https://robbreport.com/shelter/home-design/japanese-homes-are-ephemeral-facing-demolition-just-22-years-in-heres-why-1234608438/ https://robbreport.com/shelter/home-design/japanese-homes-ar...
- rm_-rf_slash 4y ago
  This is the real answer. Japanese tax law heavily incentivizes building and discourages sitting on land forever and doing nothing with it for one’s own investments (paging California). Helps that the whole country is on a fault line; nothing is going to stand up for a while anyways so you may as well establish a culture of rebuilding.
- jbay808 4y ago
  I often hear this, but that can't possibly be the explanation, as it was true both before and after Japan had a colossal real estate bubble and crash: https://gestaltu.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/120927-Japan-Decline-2.jpg https://gestaltu.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/120927-Japan... Buildings always depreciate, and North America has its fair share of homes not intended to last generations. In Vancouver it's become common for wealthy homebuyers to knock down houses that are less than 20 years old to put up something fresh, but that didn't stop property values from appreciating. And in China it's perhaps even more the case that homes aren't built to last, and they even have an oversupply issue if anything, as well as a much more advanced population decline than Japan did circa 1990. And yet real estate in China has still attracted so much investment speculation that it's even less affordable, and my guess is it's following the same trajectory that Japan did. Property speculation is a powerful force. I think a much better explanation is that the Japanese RE bubble taught Japanese speculators a lasting lesson, and the subsequent demographic decline, universal zoning, and widespread availability of mass transit kept it cheap.
  - dexwiz 4y ago
    China's house market is also affected by different cultural forces. It is almost impossible to marry without owning a house/condo. This forces a ton of young people to buy property who may otherwise rent. Also you are seeing the break up of multigenerational living situations into individual family units as you move from rural to urban living scenarios. Land and real estate are also a huge income shelters for Chinese elites. They cannot appear too wealthy, so they buy real estate to hide their wealth. Only recently, last 5 years, has China instituted a national real estate registry. I wonder how much of the market disruption of the last few years is due to large players trying to divest themselves.
gimmeThaBeet 4y ago
What I wanna know is how does Tokyo do this semi-successfully? People point out the demographic declines of Japan as a whole, but the Tokyo metroplex hasn't been quite hit by that. I know there was stuff like proposing to pay people to move away, but I don't know if that's a real thing?
- wizofaus 4y ago
  I'd suggest the way Tokyo does it wouldn't be acceptable to most people in vastly smaller and less dense cities (i.e. basically every other city in the world), where we have a very high expectation of how much space/land a house should be able to take up.
  - ZeroGravitas 4y ago
    This is just incentives. If you reward people for conserving a scarce resource, they'll use less of it. If you reward people for wasting a scarce resource, they'll use more of it. There's some natural human value attached to space, but in the current system people are incentivized to own more than they need, because to do anything else would be giving up free money, but the fact that everyone else is doing the same, ruins things for everyone.
    - wizofaus 4y ago
      Not sure I agree - it's cultural too. If you grow up with the expectation that you'll never own a spacious 3-BR house with a dedicated yard, then you wouldn't think spending your life living in small apartments or townhouses was so terrible. But I admit I'd find it very hard to adjust to even if the reward/incentive for doing so was super high. And the dog would almost certainly agree!
ben-schaaf 4y ago
In the 50s to 70s when the population was growing a ton and new housing was needed the government funded a ton of public housing (Danchi) to offset the growth in demand. Things have changed a lot since then but it seemed to have been very successful at fixing the housing crisis of the time.

How does Japan do this successfully?

endisneigh 4y ago

Dwindling population

ElFitz 4y ago
They also never stop building. And when they do stop, it’s only to tear down a building so they can build another one in it’s place.

StevePerkins 4y ago

Because their population is shrinking rather than growing, and they effectively disallow immigration? Japan is a deflationary case study.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
Ancalagon 4y ago
How does Japan do this successfully in Tokyo (which was until recently, growing in population)? https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14538387#:~:text=Tokyo's%20population%20reached%2010%20million,and%2014%20million%20in%202019 https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14538387#:~:text=Tokyo's%.... https://japanpropertycentral.com/tag/average-rent-tokyo/ https://japanpropertycentral.com/tag/average-rent-tokyo/
- lotsofpulp 4y ago
  People are OK with leaders making decisions that result in them living in accommodations that people in the US and other western countries would deem unacceptable, mainly relating to quantity of livi by space and storage and usage of personal cars.

ptomato 4y ago

They let people build things.

dexwiz 4y ago

Japan has a completely different view on housing. Houses in Japan are made with the expectation of being torn down [1]. This causes all sorts of secondary and tertiary effects different from the European model of buildings lasting for centuries. [1] https://robbreport.com/shelter/home-design/japanese-homes-are-ephemeral-facing-demolition-just-22-years-in-heres-why-1234608438/ https://robbreport.com/shelter/home-design/japanese-homes-ar...

rm_-rf_slash 4y ago
This is the real answer. Japanese tax law heavily incentivizes building and discourages sitting on land forever and doing nothing with it for one’s own investments (paging California). Helps that the whole country is on a fault line; nothing is going to stand up for a while anyways so you may as well establish a culture of rebuilding.
jbay808 4y ago
I often hear this, but that can't possibly be the explanation, as it was true both before and after Japan had a colossal real estate bubble and crash: https://gestaltu.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/120927-Japan-Decline-2.jpg https://gestaltu.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/120927-Japan... Buildings always depreciate, and North America has its fair share of homes not intended to last generations. In Vancouver it's become common for wealthy homebuyers to knock down houses that are less than 20 years old to put up something fresh, but that didn't stop property values from appreciating. And in China it's perhaps even more the case that homes aren't built to last, and they even have an oversupply issue if anything, as well as a much more advanced population decline than Japan did circa 1990. And yet real estate in China has still attracted so much investment speculation that it's even less affordable, and my guess is it's following the same trajectory that Japan did. Property speculation is a powerful force. I think a much better explanation is that the Japanese RE bubble taught Japanese speculators a lasting lesson, and the subsequent demographic decline, universal zoning, and widespread availability of mass transit kept it cheap.
- dexwiz 4y ago
  China's house market is also affected by different cultural forces. It is almost impossible to marry without owning a house/condo. This forces a ton of young people to buy property who may otherwise rent. Also you are seeing the break up of multigenerational living situations into individual family units as you move from rural to urban living scenarios. Land and real estate are also a huge income shelters for Chinese elites. They cannot appear too wealthy, so they buy real estate to hide their wealth. Only recently, last 5 years, has China instituted a national real estate registry. I wonder how much of the market disruption of the last few years is due to large players trying to divest themselves.

gimmeThaBeet 4y ago

What I wanna know is how does Tokyo do this semi-successfully? People point out the demographic declines of Japan as a whole, but the Tokyo metroplex hasn't been quite hit by that. I know there was stuff like proposing to pay people to move away, but I don't know if that's a real thing?

wizofaus 4y ago
I'd suggest the way Tokyo does it wouldn't be acceptable to most people in vastly smaller and less dense cities (i.e. basically every other city in the world), where we have a very high expectation of how much space/land a house should be able to take up.
- ZeroGravitas 4y ago
  This is just incentives. If you reward people for conserving a scarce resource, they'll use less of it. If you reward people for wasting a scarce resource, they'll use more of it. There's some natural human value attached to space, but in the current system people are incentivized to own more than they need, because to do anything else would be giving up free money, but the fact that everyone else is doing the same, ruins things for everyone.
  - wizofaus 4y ago
    Not sure I agree - it's cultural too. If you grow up with the expectation that you'll never own a spacious 3-BR house with a dedicated yard, then you wouldn't think spending your life living in small apartments or townhouses was so terrible. But I admit I'd find it very hard to adjust to even if the reward/incentive for doing so was super high. And the dog would almost certainly agree!

ben-schaaf 4y ago

In the 50s to 70s when the population was growing a ton and new housing was needed the government funded a ton of public housing (Danchi) to offset the growth in demand. Things have changed a lot since then but it seemed to have been very successful at fixing the housing crisis of the time.