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Solar capacity in Texas tripled since last summer. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/21/heat-energy-crisis-would-be-worse-without-solar/ https://

Solar capacity in Texas tripled since last summer. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/21/heat-energy-crisis-would-be-worse-without-solar/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/21/heat-ener...

dvasdekis 4y ago
Thanks! Makes sense if it's being built as fast as possible given the number of workers available for installation.
- epistasis 4y ago
  Solar is actually super super hard to install right now, because tariffs are in an uncertain space, so nobody knows if, should they import, if they are are going to get a bill in the next 12 months for past sales that's 1x-2x the cost of the import (I forget the exact factor). This sort of protectionism isn't even buying us a bunch of local solar panel production, unfortunately. I'm not a free-market purist, and am in favor of protectionist tariffs to build a nascent industry, but this is not a way to do to it and we are only harming our installer industry with these terrible forms of tariffs and uncertainty. Edit: here's an article from a little while ago on this https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-solar-industry-warns-slowdown-due-supply-chain-disruptions-tariff-uncertainty-2022-04-28/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-solar-industry-warns-slo...
  - toomuchtodo 4y ago
    There’s about 100GW of solar generation in ERCOT’s interconnect queue at the moment. If there is uncertainty, utility scale developers aren’t signaling it. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32071998 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32071998 > As of 30 September [2021] developers had 100.3GW of solar capacity in the queue, 42.4GW of utility-scale battery storage, 22.5GW of wind, 13.5GW of natural gas and minor amounts of other technologies such as biomass. For comparison, ERCOT has a maximum capacity of 15GW of coal generation, and 65GW of fossil gas generation (per electricitymap.org, which sources zone capacity data in the US from US EIA-860 reporting).
    - epistasis 4y ago
      Well if you are a solar developer it makes sense to get in line in the interconnection queue and hope that this stupid tariff stuff gets sorted out before it's time to actually buy all the panels. But I bet we'd have a lot more installed all over the US if it weren't for this.
      - toomuchtodo 4y ago
        > But I bet we'd have a lot more installed all over the US if it weren't for this. Agreed. Solar PV module tariffs are suspended for 24 months FYI, so there is some near term policy clarity for utility scale developers. The ITC tax credit is also phasing down over the next 2 years, so the incentive is there to build build build. https://www.utilitydive.com/news/biden-to-pause-solar-tariffs-24-months-southeast-asia-commerce-module-probe/624928/ https://www.utilitydive.com/news/biden-to-pause-solar-tariff... https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/06/06/fact-sheet-president-biden-takes-bold-executive-action-to-spur-domestic-clean-energy-manufacturing/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases...
    - dcsan 4y ago
      Since batteries are always the issue... How inefficient is mechanical storage? For example using electricity to just raise a heavy mass then as that lowers it can produce power. It seems that would be cheap to build at scale with the chance for almost unlimited storage. I have to assume there would be a more than 50% loss through the process, hope someone on hn can comment. Maybe it's not worth it when you can tap into unlimited sunlight the next day.
      - toomuchtodo 4y ago
        Not worth it, easier to scale up battery manufacturing (which the world also needs for all vehicles to transition to electrification). https://youtu.be/iGGOjD_OtAM https://youtu.be/iGGOjD_OtAM
      - spoonjim 4y ago
        This system is currently only cost-effective with water, and only where you have a natural place to put it (i.e. a crater on top of a mountain vs. building a tank on a tower). Constructing a greenfield mechanical apparatus is too expensive for the energy stored.
  - dd36 4y ago
    That’s surely the purpose. Natural gas and coal interests want chaos and uncertainty in solar coated with a glaze of misdirection.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
conradev 4y ago
Another factor for building solar right this moment is that the price of polysilicon has jumped to the point where large projects are potentially at risk of cost overruns/delays. Growing pains. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-22/china-is-preparing-to-step-in-to-curb-soaring-solar-prices https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-22/china-is-...
chasd00 4y ago
What does it take to setup a decent size solar farm? There’s a lot of cheap, flat, easy to develop land in far west Texas (Brewster county).
- epistasis 4y ago
  The hardest part tends to be the interconnection to the grid, at least in most of the country. I think that ERCOT is also experiencing geographic regions with consistent grid congestion, though I can't recall which. That data is all public, but there are some providers that make it nice and easy to view: https://www.energyacuity.com/blog/ercot-lmp-map/ https://www.energyacuity.com/blog/ercot-lmp-map/
- rtpg 4y ago
  One thing I wonder about is how far can you be from population centers in practice? I remember hearing that you want to be close or else you lose a lot to transmission but that might not be at all true
  - fragmede 4y ago
    You make the X vs Y call. Assuming it is material, at some distance the cost of land (X) vs the transmission loss (Y), it becomes economical to choose X instead of Y
  - Aloha 4y ago
    Long distance synchronous AC transmission or HVDC transmission is pretty efficient - enough to overcome the inherent land pricing differential.
- Mvandenbergh 4y ago
  Grid connection, land use permissions (i.e. local planning). The latter is very easy in rural Texas so just the former really.
  - voxadam 4y ago
    Don't forget about environmental studies and approval.
oldjavacoder 4y ago
- blitzar 4y ago
  > ego so big he made his rocket look like a sex toy not sure if you have noticed but rockets, misiles, bullets, skyscrapers are all phallic symbols. Sick burn against a person saying their phallus looks like a phallus though
  - oldjavacoder 4y ago
    Rockets ... looks like rockets, except in the case I correctly referred to. Thank you.

dvasdekis 4y ago

Thanks! Makes sense if it's being built as fast as possible given the number of workers available for installation.

epistasis 4y ago
Solar is actually super super hard to install right now, because tariffs are in an uncertain space, so nobody knows if, should they import, if they are are going to get a bill in the next 12 months for past sales that's 1x-2x the cost of the import (I forget the exact factor). This sort of protectionism isn't even buying us a bunch of local solar panel production, unfortunately. I'm not a free-market purist, and am in favor of protectionist tariffs to build a nascent industry, but this is not a way to do to it and we are only harming our installer industry with these terrible forms of tariffs and uncertainty. Edit: here's an article from a little while ago on this https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-solar-industry-warns-slowdown-due-supply-chain-disruptions-tariff-uncertainty-2022-04-28/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-solar-industry-warns-slo...
- toomuchtodo 4y ago
  There’s about 100GW of solar generation in ERCOT’s interconnect queue at the moment. If there is uncertainty, utility scale developers aren’t signaling it. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32071998 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32071998 > As of 30 September [2021] developers had 100.3GW of solar capacity in the queue, 42.4GW of utility-scale battery storage, 22.5GW of wind, 13.5GW of natural gas and minor amounts of other technologies such as biomass. For comparison, ERCOT has a maximum capacity of 15GW of coal generation, and 65GW of fossil gas generation (per electricitymap.org, which sources zone capacity data in the US from US EIA-860 reporting).
  - epistasis 4y ago
    Well if you are a solar developer it makes sense to get in line in the interconnection queue and hope that this stupid tariff stuff gets sorted out before it's time to actually buy all the panels. But I bet we'd have a lot more installed all over the US if it weren't for this.
    - toomuchtodo 4y ago
      > But I bet we'd have a lot more installed all over the US if it weren't for this. Agreed. Solar PV module tariffs are suspended for 24 months FYI, so there is some near term policy clarity for utility scale developers. The ITC tax credit is also phasing down over the next 2 years, so the incentive is there to build build build. https://www.utilitydive.com/news/biden-to-pause-solar-tariffs-24-months-southeast-asia-commerce-module-probe/624928/ https://www.utilitydive.com/news/biden-to-pause-solar-tariff... https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/06/06/fact-sheet-president-biden-takes-bold-executive-action-to-spur-domestic-clean-energy-manufacturing/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases...
  - dcsan 4y ago
    Since batteries are always the issue... How inefficient is mechanical storage? For example using electricity to just raise a heavy mass then as that lowers it can produce power. It seems that would be cheap to build at scale with the chance for almost unlimited storage. I have to assume there would be a more than 50% loss through the process, hope someone on hn can comment. Maybe it's not worth it when you can tap into unlimited sunlight the next day.
    - toomuchtodo 4y ago
      Not worth it, easier to scale up battery manufacturing (which the world also needs for all vehicles to transition to electrification). https://youtu.be/iGGOjD_OtAM https://youtu.be/iGGOjD_OtAM
    - spoonjim 4y ago
      This system is currently only cost-effective with water, and only where you have a natural place to put it (i.e. a crater on top of a mountain vs. building a tank on a tower). Constructing a greenfield mechanical apparatus is too expensive for the energy stored.
- dd36 4y ago
  That’s surely the purpose. Natural gas and coal interests want chaos and uncertainty in solar coated with a glaze of misdirection.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]

conradev 4y ago

Another factor for building solar right this moment is that the price of polysilicon has jumped to the point where large projects are potentially at risk of cost overruns/delays. Growing pains. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-22/china-is-preparing-to-step-in-to-curb-soaring-solar-prices https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-22/china-is-...

chasd00 4y ago

What does it take to setup a decent size solar farm? There’s a lot of cheap, flat, easy to develop land in far west Texas (Brewster county).

epistasis 4y ago
The hardest part tends to be the interconnection to the grid, at least in most of the country. I think that ERCOT is also experiencing geographic regions with consistent grid congestion, though I can't recall which. That data is all public, but there are some providers that make it nice and easy to view: https://www.energyacuity.com/blog/ercot-lmp-map/ https://www.energyacuity.com/blog/ercot-lmp-map/
rtpg 4y ago
One thing I wonder about is how far can you be from population centers in practice? I remember hearing that you want to be close or else you lose a lot to transmission but that might not be at all true
- fragmede 4y ago
  You make the X vs Y call. Assuming it is material, at some distance the cost of land (X) vs the transmission loss (Y), it becomes economical to choose X instead of Y
- Aloha 4y ago
  Long distance synchronous AC transmission or HVDC transmission is pretty efficient - enough to overcome the inherent land pricing differential.
Mvandenbergh 4y ago
Grid connection, land use permissions (i.e. local planning). The latter is very easy in rural Texas so just the former really.
- voxadam 4y ago
  Don't forget about environmental studies and approval.

oldjavacoder 4y ago

blitzar 4y ago
> ego so big he made his rocket look like a sex toy not sure if you have noticed but rockets, misiles, bullets, skyscrapers are all phallic symbols. Sick burn against a person saying their phallus looks like a phallus though
- oldjavacoder 4y ago
  Rockets ... looks like rockets, except in the case I correctly referred to. Thank you.