Probably not -- people aren't as obscenely overextended with debt this time. Most of the debt out there is conventional mortgage debt. There shouldn't be a ti

Probably not -- people aren't as obscenely overextended with debt this time. Most of the debt out there is conventional mortgage debt. There shouldn't be a tidal wave of bad debt in the same way. Plus, the ultra-low mortgage rates led to lots of refinance volume, which makes most of the debt into recourse debt, so a much smaller share of homeowners would be able to just "jingle-mail" their way out of depreciated housing. Prices will probably fall, and some markets may experience collapse due to the combination of excessive ebullience and unfavorable demographic trends, but I don't anticipate the same massive wipeout, as much as I would personally benefit from it. It could happen -- some markets only really just ended their COVID foreclosure moratoria, and in those markets there almost certainly will be a big wave of foreclosures that will now be timed right with the end of the house-buying enthusiasm, and that always could spread contagion-like to places that have more sustainable markets, but I don't think so. I think this will be a slower decline, rather than a tidal wave of demand destruction, but only time will tell for sure.