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Talking in absolutes like this ("the vaccine failed, it doesn't prevent infection, it doesn't prevent transmission") is very counterproductive. No vaccine is 1

by pygy_ 4y ago

Talking in absolutes like this ("the vaccine failed, it doesn't prevent infection, it doesn't prevent transmission") is very counterproductive. No vaccine is 100% effective. The vaccines were sufficiently effective to let Israel skip the alpha wave altogether with ~70% of the population covered. At the lowest point in June 2021 they were down to less than 20 new cases per day. Then the delta variant came out of the bush (from India which had much less coverage at the time, the more infections, the higher the mutation risk). It's R0 was higher than alpha's and the epidemic kicked back up. Had there been an initial, aggressive push to vaccinate globally we might have been done with the virus by the summer of 2021. It should also be noted that COVID has cumulative effects. The all around risk of complications is about twice as high for the second infection (I don't think there's data for more than two, so we don't know if the trend is additive, multiplicative, a combination thereof, or if it peaks there). Among other things, it culls the naive lymphocyte population weakening your immunity to bugs you haven't met yet.

ars 4y ago
You keep thinking that the loss of immunity is due to new variants. That's not correct, people loose immunity to the Alpha variant as well. Historically Coronaviuses never produced lasting immunity, people hoped COVID would be an exception, but it is not. So a couple months after the vaccine push they would have been back where they started, even without Delta. > Had there been an initial, aggressive push to vaccinate globally we might have been done with the virus by the summer of 2021. That's simply not true. You can never vaccinate everyone, so 3 to 6 months after this massive vaccination campaign everyone would start to get sick with the Alpha variant again. Not to mention even someone vaccinated still has some degree of infection, allowing new variants to develop.
- pygy_ 4y ago
  > You keep thinking that the loss of immunity is due to new variants. This is our first interaction, not sure why you think I keep thinking something I never thought. There might have been a need for boosters, it would have been possible to contain the epidemic had we not let covid mutate into more faster, more contagious and evasive variants. And the variants were much more likely to spring up as we let the epidemic go rampant.
  - ars 4y ago
    > This is our first interaction, not sure why you think I keep thinking something I never thought. Are you not posting a message demonstrating your current thinking? And your current message is showing the same thought process. You need to adjust your knowledge of the situation. Giving the entire planet a booster every 3 months is not a viable strategy. > it would have been possible to contain the epidemic No, it would not. > had we not let covid We didn't "let covid" do anything. This is not a disease we are currently able to control. Vaccines don't work stop the spread of the virus (they only stop serious disease), masks don't work, lockdowns don't work. The only failure here is we let fear control us. Once the first vaccine was available the fear should have been over. But even today hospitals are refusing non vaccinated visitors even if they have immunity due to getting stick. There is no scientific basis for this, it's just fear. And it's stupid as well - the vaccine only works for a few months, but if you got vaccinated 2 years ago you are permitted entry, but you recovered from illness 1 month ago you are not. This is not science, this is dogma.
    - pygy_ 4y ago
      > Vaccines don't work stop the spread of the virus They did stop the spread of the historic and alpha variant in Israel, with a 55-60% rate of vaccination (I mistakenly thought it was 70%, it was even lower). Before the onset of the delta wave, the virus was about to go extinct there. You can check the graphs. May 11 2021, there were 4.66 new cases per million inhabitants. By June 9 it was down to 1.5. Compare with the surrounding countries, where the alpha wave lasted much longer, and was still lingering when the delta variant came around. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=earliest..2021-10-31&facet=none&uniformYAxis=0&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=total_cases&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=ISR~OWID_WRL~LBN~JOR~FRA https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor... June 9 coincides with the point where the delta share crossed the 50% threshold. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=earliest..2021-10-31&facet=none&uniformYAxis=0&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=total_cases&hideControls=true&Metric=Delta+variant+%28share%29&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=ISR~OWID_WRL https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor... But the global vaccine rollout was criminally slow. I don't know how hospitals devise their COVID policy in the US... In France you need a "Sanitary pass" to access healthcare facilities. You must either provide a negative test taken in the last 24 hours, or a proof of some level of immunity (either up to date vaccination, or a COVID recovery certificate from less than 4 months).
Izkata 4y ago
> The vaccines were sufficiently effective to let Israel skip the alpha wave altogether with ~70% of the population covered. The Alpha wave occurred in Jan 2021, did happen in Israel, and at the time they only had ~10% fully vaccinated (~25% partially).
- pygy_ 4y ago
  Compare the evolution of the alpha wave in Israel, France and Lebanon. Israel, had also drastically cut down on community measures like lockdowns, curfews and closure of non-necessary businesses.

by pygy_ 4y ago

ars 4y ago

You keep thinking that the loss of immunity is due to new variants. That's not correct, people loose immunity to the Alpha variant as well. Historically Coronaviuses never produced lasting immunity, people hoped COVID would be an exception, but it is not. So a couple months after the vaccine push they would have been back where they started, even without Delta. > Had there been an initial, aggressive push to vaccinate globally we might have been done with the virus by the summer of 2021. That's simply not true. You can never vaccinate everyone, so 3 to 6 months after this massive vaccination campaign everyone would start to get sick with the Alpha variant again. Not to mention even someone vaccinated still has some degree of infection, allowing new variants to develop.

pygy_ 4y ago
> You keep thinking that the loss of immunity is due to new variants. This is our first interaction, not sure why you think I keep thinking something I never thought. There might have been a need for boosters, it would have been possible to contain the epidemic had we not let covid mutate into more faster, more contagious and evasive variants. And the variants were much more likely to spring up as we let the epidemic go rampant.
- ars 4y ago
  > This is our first interaction, not sure why you think I keep thinking something I never thought. Are you not posting a message demonstrating your current thinking? And your current message is showing the same thought process. You need to adjust your knowledge of the situation. Giving the entire planet a booster every 3 months is not a viable strategy. > it would have been possible to contain the epidemic No, it would not. > had we not let covid We didn't "let covid" do anything. This is not a disease we are currently able to control. Vaccines don't work stop the spread of the virus (they only stop serious disease), masks don't work, lockdowns don't work. The only failure here is we let fear control us. Once the first vaccine was available the fear should have been over. But even today hospitals are refusing non vaccinated visitors even if they have immunity due to getting stick. There is no scientific basis for this, it's just fear. And it's stupid as well - the vaccine only works for a few months, but if you got vaccinated 2 years ago you are permitted entry, but you recovered from illness 1 month ago you are not. This is not science, this is dogma.
  - pygy_ 4y ago
    > Vaccines don't work stop the spread of the virus They did stop the spread of the historic and alpha variant in Israel, with a 55-60% rate of vaccination (I mistakenly thought it was 70%, it was even lower). Before the onset of the delta wave, the virus was about to go extinct there. You can check the graphs. May 11 2021, there were 4.66 new cases per million inhabitants. By June 9 it was down to 1.5. Compare with the surrounding countries, where the alpha wave lasted much longer, and was still lingering when the delta variant came around. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=earliest..2021-10-31&facet=none&uniformYAxis=0&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=total_cases&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=ISR~OWID_WRL~LBN~JOR~FRA https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor... June 9 coincides with the point where the delta share crossed the 50% threshold. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=earliest..2021-10-31&facet=none&uniformYAxis=0&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=total_cases&hideControls=true&Metric=Delta+variant+%28share%29&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=ISR~OWID_WRL https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor... But the global vaccine rollout was criminally slow. I don't know how hospitals devise their COVID policy in the US... In France you need a "Sanitary pass" to access healthcare facilities. You must either provide a negative test taken in the last 24 hours, or a proof of some level of immunity (either up to date vaccination, or a COVID recovery certificate from less than 4 months).

Izkata 4y ago

> The vaccines were sufficiently effective to let Israel skip the alpha wave altogether with ~70% of the population covered. The Alpha wave occurred in Jan 2021, did happen in Israel, and at the time they only had ~10% fully vaccinated (~25% partially).

pygy_ 4y ago
Compare the evolution of the alpha wave in Israel, France and Lebanon. Israel, had also drastically cut down on community measures like lockdowns, curfews and closure of non-necessary businesses.