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> Trade prevents war because war would mean decimation of their economies and lead to likely depressions 1913 is calling and wants its optimism back. If the f

> Trade prevents war because war would mean decimation of their economies and lead to likely depressions 1913 is calling and wants its optimism back. If the fertilizer hits the fan re Taiwan, the CCP will not hesitate to cut off all trade with everyone who supports Taiwan.

sudosysgen 4y ago
They won't stop trading with Taiwan supporting countries. They don't have any plans of that as far as anyone knows and never threatened it. The threat is that the US executes it's public plans of sinking ships trading with China in such a contingency.
- phtrivier 4y ago
  That will sound tongue in cheek, and to some extend it is, but if the last few years have shown us anything, it's the perils of starting a sentence by "xxx won't yyy" (for several values of x and y.)
  - sudosysgen 4y ago
    That's an extrapolation. There hasn't ever been in a country that decided to sanction themselves within wartime from most of the world economy, and leaked documents show that one of the reason China wants Taiwan to begin with is to make their trade more secure.
    - Cupertino95014 4y ago
      I don't even know what the first sentence is supposed to mean. Germany knew they would be blockaded by the Brits in WW I and II and proceeded to go to war anyway, so didn't they "decided [sic] to sanction themselves within wartime from most of the world economy"? Japan continued with their China war in the 1930s, despite sanctions from the US and the West, so didn't they? As for the "leaked documents", the claim on Taiwan is that it is an inseparable part of China, and not that they want "to make their trade more secure."
      - sudosysgen 4y ago
        You lost the plot of the original comment. The original point was that somehow China would stop trading with any country that didn't agree Taiwan was Chinese by their own volition. This never happened is in no way analogous to to Japan or Germany being blockaded. And no, the leaked documents don't just claim that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China, that's the public position. The leaked documents detail how control over Taiwan is necessary to be able to project sufficient naval power to break any attempted blockade especially by submarine due to the low depth of waters within the first island chain.
        Cupertino95014 4y ago
        So they tell their population and the whole world that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China, and have been doing so since Nixon and Kissinger went to China, but the real reason is to break an attempted blockade? OK, if that's what you want to believe. Seems kinda implausible, though.
- Cupertino95014 4y ago
  War is hell. In WW I, the Germans didn't move to "unrestricted submarine warfare" until 1917. The fact that the CCP doesn't plan for it now means absolutely nothing.
  - sudosysgen 4y ago
    First of all, this isn't WW1. Secondly, there is a difference between using violence to impose an embargo on someone else (what Germany did and what the US threatens to do) and embargoing yourself, which no country has ever done ever.
    - Cupertino95014 4y ago
      I think you are just embarrassing yourself now. You say "This isn't WW I" but then you claim that there hasn't ever been something. Either history is relevant, or it isn't. Edit: you can't "impose an embargo" on another country. That's a misunderstanding of the word. You can "blockade" them. Blockades are a feature of almost every war.
criley2 4y ago
>If the fertilizer hits the fan re Taiwan, the CCP will not hesitate to cut off all trade with everyone who supports Taiwan. Of the ~780 million Chinese who work, ~200 million support the export economy. So the CCP will put 25% of their workers out of a job over Taiwan? Feel free! Their regimes lifespan will be measured in months if they do. This is why trade prevents wars. China has to solve the "200 hundred million jobs" problem before they can start a war.

sudosysgen 4y ago

They won't stop trading with Taiwan supporting countries. They don't have any plans of that as far as anyone knows and never threatened it. The threat is that the US executes it's public plans of sinking ships trading with China in such a contingency.

phtrivier 4y ago
That will sound tongue in cheek, and to some extend it is, but if the last few years have shown us anything, it's the perils of starting a sentence by "xxx won't yyy" (for several values of x and y.)
- sudosysgen 4y ago
  That's an extrapolation. There hasn't ever been in a country that decided to sanction themselves within wartime from most of the world economy, and leaked documents show that one of the reason China wants Taiwan to begin with is to make their trade more secure.
  - Cupertino95014 4y ago
    I don't even know what the first sentence is supposed to mean. Germany knew they would be blockaded by the Brits in WW I and II and proceeded to go to war anyway, so didn't they "decided [sic] to sanction themselves within wartime from most of the world economy"? Japan continued with their China war in the 1930s, despite sanctions from the US and the West, so didn't they? As for the "leaked documents", the claim on Taiwan is that it is an inseparable part of China, and not that they want "to make their trade more secure."
    - sudosysgen 4y ago
      You lost the plot of the original comment. The original point was that somehow China would stop trading with any country that didn't agree Taiwan was Chinese by their own volition. This never happened is in no way analogous to to Japan or Germany being blockaded. And no, the leaked documents don't just claim that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China, that's the public position. The leaked documents detail how control over Taiwan is necessary to be able to project sufficient naval power to break any attempted blockade especially by submarine due to the low depth of waters within the first island chain.
      - Cupertino95014 4y ago
        So they tell their population and the whole world that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China, and have been doing so since Nixon and Kissinger went to China, but the real reason is to break an attempted blockade? OK, if that's what you want to believe. Seems kinda implausible, though.
Cupertino95014 4y ago
War is hell. In WW I, the Germans didn't move to "unrestricted submarine warfare" until 1917. The fact that the CCP doesn't plan for it now means absolutely nothing.
- sudosysgen 4y ago
  First of all, this isn't WW1. Secondly, there is a difference between using violence to impose an embargo on someone else (what Germany did and what the US threatens to do) and embargoing yourself, which no country has ever done ever.
  - Cupertino95014 4y ago
    I think you are just embarrassing yourself now. You say "This isn't WW I" but then you claim that there hasn't ever been something. Either history is relevant, or it isn't. Edit: you can't "impose an embargo" on another country. That's a misunderstanding of the word. You can "blockade" them. Blockades are a feature of almost every war.

criley2 4y ago

>If the fertilizer hits the fan re Taiwan, the CCP will not hesitate to cut off all trade with everyone who supports Taiwan. Of the ~780 million Chinese who work, ~200 million support the export economy. So the CCP will put 25% of their workers out of a job over Taiwan? Feel free! Their regimes lifespan will be measured in months if they do. This is why trade prevents wars. China has to solve the "200 hundred million jobs" problem before they can start a war.