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I’m a developer who’s been doing this for a loooong time and I can’t imagine being able to accurately guess with 90% confidence the calendar day I’ll have a par
by greymalik 4y ago
I’m a developer who’s been doing this for a loooong time and I can’t imagine being able to accurately guess with 90% confidence the calendar day I’ll have a particular task done. And the tasks I work on are different enough that a feedback loop about how much I misguessed would be useless for error-correcting future estimates. Maybe that works for factory-like tasks like how long it tasks to add a REST endpoint for a CRUD action?
- kqr 4y agoNo, it works for anything. The key that people misunderstand is that if the task is really uncertain, you're allowed to give a really wide range. In fact, you're supposed to -- that's the only way you can be correct 90 % of the time. As a concrete example, I recently estimated "somewhere between 1 week and 4 months" when asked about an semi-well specified feature because I felt there's a 5 % chance it's done in less than a week, but even under pessimistic assumptions, there's about a 5 % risk it takes longer than 4 months. When asked about a larger, unspecified projects a few years ago, I didn't hesitate to respond "between three months and 15 years". Sometimes that's the best you can do due to the uncertainties involved. It sounds useless, but it's really useful to have a quantitative measure of the uncertainty.