12 ms·

How well do the Covid vaccines work? (and why has this been so confusing?)

16 points by DanBC 4y ago

jleyank 4y ago
We were all fortunate that the social and political resistance to covid vaccines and other public health measures did not result in large-scale loss of life. This was balanced by the rapid development of symptom treatments such as steroids and posture when using ventilators, the appearance of vaccines well-tailored to the initial presentation and a reduction in social interaction caused by a mixture of public health and fear. Finally, the appearance of omicron with its reduction in lethality allowed the hospitals to empty out. The next wave of vaccines will resemble flu shots in being tailored to current and anticipated variants, so if covid does not mutate into a more lethal form it will shift to an endemic problem like other viruses. The pandemic has shown how well systems can respond to threats, but it’s an open question whether the politization of vaccines and public health will lead to increased problems going forward. If the damned things are encountered by naive hosts, they’ll spread. It’s what viruses do. And we’ve burned out a portion of the health profession which will have to be replaced at some cost and effort.
- hammock 4y ago
  > If the damned things are encountered by naive hosts How many of those exist anymore? At this point the vast majority of us have gotten Covid at least once, and research increasingly supports the notion of robust protection from other variants by past exposure.
- lumb63 4y ago
  > This was balanced by the rapid development of symptom treatments such as steroids and posture when using ventilators, the appearance of vaccines well-tailored to the initial presentation and a reduction in social interaction caused by a mixture of public health and fear. It was also balanced by the fact that COVID-19 is without major health consequence to the vast majority of the population.
- hanoz 4y ago
  We were far more fortunate that the mass administration of a leaky vaccine with no long term test data, didn't lead to utter disaster.
- illuminerdy 4y ago
  You mentioned the social and political resistance to the covid vaccine. I watched a supercut of world leaders and health officials saying with absolute confidence that the vaccines were "effective" and that, if you took it, you would NOT get the virus and everything would return to normal. Then it showed them all rolling up their sleeves and smiling getting jabbed. Then it showed them all announcing very seriously and sadly that they had coronavirus. The social and political resistance to the vaccines were because, from the outset, so much of the response to the virus was media and governments reacting (or overreacting) without knowing whether the actions they were taking were actually going to be effective. It was throw everything at the wall and see what sticks, regardless of science or even common sense. Add to that the fact that you saw the same politicians and health officials ignoring their own rules (I just read an article about a California health official who, on the same day she announced a renewal of mask mandates was later pictured partying in a group maskless) and it just completely eliminated any trust many people had in what was being told to them. That's where much of that social and political resistance comes from.
Flankk 4y ago
The 95.3% efficacy for Pfizer and 94.1% efficacy for Moderna are based on early studies. This is incredibly old news. We've since learned that the efficacy wanes over time. This was first evidenced by increasing case counts with Delta and then the huge resurgence in cases with the arrival of Omicron. In other words, you can only expect 95% efficacy for a number of weeks. That is why the narrative changed to instead focus on reduction in hospitalization.
- kcplate 4y ago
  Biden was literally boosted again in March. Has Covid-19 now, 15 weeks later. Fauci was double boosted in March and caught Covid 10 weeks later. My wife, who is fully vaccinated + 1 booster is presently fighting Covid and due to her asthma we took her to the ER on Friday. The ER doc told her that she has noticed that vaccinated Covid patients she has seen seem to have less hypoxia issues when they catch it but almost all of the people she sees are vaccinated. Maybe cases are milder if vaccinated, but really do we know this? How do you separate the difference between the variant causing a more mild case from the vaccine causing the variant to be milder. If a population is significantly vaccinated, but the unvaccinated have likely already contracted and developed a natural immunity, the # of unvaccinated, first time covid infected people might be rather small bit this is the control we need to measure natural immunity effectiveness from vaccine effectiveness on Covid variants spreading today.
  - melling 4y ago
    We have known for a year that the vaccines don’t prevent the disease. Is there some reason we need to cover this again?
    - kcplate 4y ago
      Because the government is still actively pushing them.
      - melling 4y ago
        i’m sorry, but you haven’t explained why people should not get vaccinated. It would help the discussion if people got right to the point.
throwaway45631 4y ago
> and why has it been so confusing? For the same reason, that this post will quickly vanish from the HN front page, be shadow banned or outright flagged - a huge proportion of the well to do E-Mail class can’t stand a debate. It’s “follow the science” (ie STFU)- even though science inevitably has debate at its footing.
- melling 4y ago
  No, it’s offer your own science or STFU. “I simply don’t believe the science“ is not debate.
  - mandmandam 4y ago
    People offering their own science that "masks work", for example, were shouted down by the same people who later demanded their use. Mentioning the scientific and logical flaws with Daszak's Lancet paper, or discussing the lab leak theory, got your posts deleted. Many legit scientists received death threats after speaking of them, thanks to the media's coverage of those topics. Where was the debate on those topics? Not on social media, where lab leak discussion was censored. Not on corporate news. Not in the NYT or WaPo, at least not for the first 20 months or so. This all isn't as simple as you seem to think. The science is not as clear as is claimed. The messaging is inexcusably bad. The trials are hidden to protect us from "misinterpretation". The contracts are secret, the analysis is fragmented. For a current example, the scientific basis and the cost/benefit analysis for vaccinating under 14 year olds is incredibly suspect. Out of 1 million Irish children, one under the age of 14 has died from Corona in all this time - one child. Yet leaky vaccines with rapidly fading effectiveness are being pushed on them by state agencies. The only reasoning given - trust the professionals. Trust the science. There's no debate on it, no dissenting view tolerated. Those with a different view can't show their evidence or their reasoning - they're smeared and vilified, called right-wing, Russian agents, Trumpists, morons, plague rats. Meanwhile, vulnerable populations such as the elderly and sick in poor countries that can't afford the vaccines are watching us put the fourth shot into young and middle aged healthy people. It's profoundly sick - and not really very scientific, if preventing novel outbreaks and death is the goal.

16 points by DanBC 4y ago

We were all fortunate that the social and political resistance to covid vaccines and other public health measures did not result in large-scale loss of life. This was balanced by the rapid development of symptom treatments such as steroids and posture when using ventilators, the appearance of vaccines well-tailored to the initial presentation and a reduction in social interaction caused by a mixture of public health and fear. Finally, the appearance of omicron with its reduction in lethality allowed the hospitals to empty out. The next wave of vaccines will resemble flu shots in being tailored to current and anticipated variants, so if covid does not mutate into a more lethal form it will shift to an endemic problem like other viruses. The pandemic has shown how well systems can respond to threats, but it’s an open question whether the politization of vaccines and public health will lead to increased problems going forward. If the damned things are encountered by naive hosts, they’ll spread. It’s what viruses do. And we’ve burned out a portion of the health profession which will have to be replaced at some cost and effort.

hammock 4y ago
> If the damned things are encountered by naive hosts How many of those exist anymore? At this point the vast majority of us have gotten Covid at least once, and research increasingly supports the notion of robust protection from other variants by past exposure.
lumb63 4y ago
> This was balanced by the rapid development of symptom treatments such as steroids and posture when using ventilators, the appearance of vaccines well-tailored to the initial presentation and a reduction in social interaction caused by a mixture of public health and fear. It was also balanced by the fact that COVID-19 is without major health consequence to the vast majority of the population.
hanoz 4y ago
We were far more fortunate that the mass administration of a leaky vaccine with no long term test data, didn't lead to utter disaster.
illuminerdy 4y ago
You mentioned the social and political resistance to the covid vaccine. I watched a supercut of world leaders and health officials saying with absolute confidence that the vaccines were "effective" and that, if you took it, you would NOT get the virus and everything would return to normal. Then it showed them all rolling up their sleeves and smiling getting jabbed. Then it showed them all announcing very seriously and sadly that they had coronavirus. The social and political resistance to the vaccines were because, from the outset, so much of the response to the virus was media and governments reacting (or overreacting) without knowing whether the actions they were taking were actually going to be effective. It was throw everything at the wall and see what sticks, regardless of science or even common sense. Add to that the fact that you saw the same politicians and health officials ignoring their own rules (I just read an article about a California health official who, on the same day she announced a renewal of mask mandates was later pictured partying in a group maskless) and it just completely eliminated any trust many people had in what was being told to them. That's where much of that social and political resistance comes from.

Flankk 4y ago

The 95.3% efficacy for Pfizer and 94.1% efficacy for Moderna are based on early studies. This is incredibly old news. We've since learned that the efficacy wanes over time. This was first evidenced by increasing case counts with Delta and then the huge resurgence in cases with the arrival of Omicron. In other words, you can only expect 95% efficacy for a number of weeks. That is why the narrative changed to instead focus on reduction in hospitalization.

kcplate 4y ago
Biden was literally boosted again in March. Has Covid-19 now, 15 weeks later. Fauci was double boosted in March and caught Covid 10 weeks later. My wife, who is fully vaccinated + 1 booster is presently fighting Covid and due to her asthma we took her to the ER on Friday. The ER doc told her that she has noticed that vaccinated Covid patients she has seen seem to have less hypoxia issues when they catch it but almost all of the people she sees are vaccinated. Maybe cases are milder if vaccinated, but really do we know this? How do you separate the difference between the variant causing a more mild case from the vaccine causing the variant to be milder. If a population is significantly vaccinated, but the unvaccinated have likely already contracted and developed a natural immunity, the # of unvaccinated, first time covid infected people might be rather small bit this is the control we need to measure natural immunity effectiveness from vaccine effectiveness on Covid variants spreading today.
- melling 4y ago
  We have known for a year that the vaccines don’t prevent the disease. Is there some reason we need to cover this again?
  - kcplate 4y ago
    Because the government is still actively pushing them.
    - melling 4y ago
      i’m sorry, but you haven’t explained why people should not get vaccinated. It would help the discussion if people got right to the point.

throwaway45631 4y ago

> and why has it been so confusing? For the same reason, that this post will quickly vanish from the HN front page, be shadow banned or outright flagged - a huge proportion of the well to do E-Mail class can’t stand a debate. It’s “follow the science” (ie STFU)- even though science inevitably has debate at its footing.

melling 4y ago
No, it’s offer your own science or STFU. “I simply don’t believe the science“ is not debate.
- mandmandam 4y ago
  People offering their own science that "masks work", for example, were shouted down by the same people who later demanded their use. Mentioning the scientific and logical flaws with Daszak's Lancet paper, or discussing the lab leak theory, got your posts deleted. Many legit scientists received death threats after speaking of them, thanks to the media's coverage of those topics. Where was the debate on those topics? Not on social media, where lab leak discussion was censored. Not on corporate news. Not in the NYT or WaPo, at least not for the first 20 months or so. This all isn't as simple as you seem to think. The science is not as clear as is claimed. The messaging is inexcusably bad. The trials are hidden to protect us from "misinterpretation". The contracts are secret, the analysis is fragmented. For a current example, the scientific basis and the cost/benefit analysis for vaccinating under 14 year olds is incredibly suspect. Out of 1 million Irish children, one under the age of 14 has died from Corona in all this time - one child. Yet leaky vaccines with rapidly fading effectiveness are being pushed on them by state agencies. The only reasoning given - trust the professionals. Trust the science. There's no debate on it, no dissenting view tolerated. Those with a different view can't show their evidence or their reasoning - they're smeared and vilified, called right-wing, Russian agents, Trumpists, morons, plague rats. Meanwhile, vulnerable populations such as the elderly and sick in poor countries that can't afford the vaccines are watching us put the fourth shot into young and middle aged healthy people. It's profoundly sick - and not really very scientific, if preventing novel outbreaks and death is the goal.