11 ms·

What's wrong with trading with China?

phtrivier 4y ago
China spent the last two years demonstrating that they're "fair weather partners" when it comes to trade. And winter is coming. So obviously it's not bad _per se_ to rely on China ; but if it's not possible to diversify sourcing, this is begging for a disaster next time whatever geopolitic hits the fan.
- CyanBird 4y ago
  > Fairweather What do you even mean, it wasn't them whom started the whole tradewar... It was the US gov
  - phtrivier 4y ago
    I meant that in any situation where china has to choose between interior market / upholding CCP plans / régional partnership vs trading with the global west, they will chose the former in times of crisis. Which is not a bad thing, again, it's just that everyone is relying on them as if they are an infinite factory of everything with unlimited supply, and it seems that, well, it's not true any more. But if they decide to stop trade with Russia tomorrow, I'll reconsider.
- criley2 4y ago
  How did they spend two years demonstrating they are fair weather partners? Was it the part where they locked workers inside of factories producing goods for America to make sure that the Americans got their shipments in spite of the Covid-0 policy? Or was it how China is actually upholding most sanctions against Russia, despite giving less than 0 f's about Ukraine? IMO the real disaster would be a total de-link between Chinese and American economies. Neither country can currently engage in any kind of meaningful hostilities while 10%+ of their economies are linked in trade. Trade prevents war because war would mean decimation of their economies and lead to likely depressions, although I suppose the results of Russia's invasion and how their economy handles de-linking will inform this logic going forward
  - Cupertino95014 4y ago
    > Trade prevents war because war would mean decimation of their economies and lead to likely depressions 1913 is calling and wants its optimism back. If the fertilizer hits the fan re Taiwan, the CCP will not hesitate to cut off all trade with everyone who supports Taiwan.
    - sudosysgen 4y ago
      They won't stop trading with Taiwan supporting countries. They don't have any plans of that as far as anyone knows and never threatened it. The threat is that the US executes it's public plans of sinking ships trading with China in such a contingency.
      - phtrivier 4y ago
        That will sound tongue in cheek, and to some extend it is, but if the last few years have shown us anything, it's the perils of starting a sentence by "xxx won't yyy" (for several values of x and y.)
        sudosysgen 4y ago
        That's an extrapolation. There hasn't ever been in a country that decided to sanction themselves within wartime from most of the world economy, and leaked documents show that one of the reason China wants Taiwan to begin with is to make their trade more secure.
        Cupertino95014 4y ago
        I don't even know what the first sentence is supposed to mean. Germany knew they would be blockaded by the Brits in WW I and II and proceeded to go to war anyway, so didn't they "decided [sic] to sanction themselves within wartime from most of the world economy"? Japan continued with their China war in the 1930s, despite sanctions from the US and the West, so didn't they? As for the "leaked documents", the claim on Taiwan is that it is an inseparable part of China, and not that they want "to make their trade more secure."
clouddrover 4y ago
China arbitrarily bans trade when it wants to "punish" nations: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-turns-to-lobsters-wine-and-coal-to-punish-australia-1.1516850 https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-turns-to-lobsters-wine-and... China has made it clear that it is an unreliable business partner. It is a mistake to do business with nations that don't share your values, as Russia is also currently demonstrating.
- pacija 4y ago
  This is the price, those are the terms. If you don't like them go buy somewhere else or produce yourself.
  - stale2002 4y ago
    So then yes, you agree completely with the statement that was made, which was "It is a mistake to do business with nations that don't share your values". Yeah that's the point.
- pokepim 4y ago
  [flagged]
  - clouddrover 4y ago
    > And what values are exactly that? Democratic nations which abide by international trade agreements. Nations you can do business with which are governed by the rule of law instead of the whims of a political party or dictator. > We just had president who was white supremacist who called other countries shitholes. America can turn itself into whatever it wants to be. If America can no longer be trusted in business then it's correct not to do business with it. > When business with China was good nobody cared they still had communist party ruling the country. Yes, that's a mistake.
  - wowokay 4y ago
    What the heck? Do you somehow only watch the super opinionated stuff on both Fox and CNN, giving you polar opposite trash talk from both sides of the aisle? Lol If anything The first one wasn’t a white supremacist because “he had alot of Mexican friends” and the other isn’t cozying up to a dictator because our gas supply offset wasn’t shifty to Saudi backed oil supplies, not to mention all his work his son has done with sketchy characters that he tries to distance himself from.
bell-cot 4y ago
Beyond the political issues already noted... - "We must travel to the most-distant place in the world, and the only source of $Thing, which we cannot survive without!" That sounds great, if you're writing epic fantasy quest stories. If you're talking supply chain management...maybe there is something profoundly wrong with your company? - Even if the CCP would never dream of squeezing Ford's battery life-line...the battery factory there could be shut down for yet another COVID outbreak, or the US could squeeze it (due to domestic politics or "Taiwan Troubles"), or etc. - The giant mess (huge delays, staggering price spikes, etc.) that global shipping has been in the past few years. Shipping car batteries from China to the US via air freight does not sound like a money-making plan. My old World Atlas suggests that shipping by rail is probably not an option.
- dylan604 4y ago
  >My old World Atlas suggests that shipping by rail is probably not an option. Is that the same atlas that says there's not an option for rail from UK to France as well?
  - bell-cot 4y ago
    Great quip, but it's more complex. The Chunnel is delicate infrastructure, with neither a backup nor a short repair time if something bad happened. I have not examined their Dangerous/Forbidden Freight List for "bulk rechargeable batteries" - but such lists can change. OTOH, there are dense freight rail networks on both sides of the Channel, and similar for ports, shipping, etc. Vs. you'd need to build a few thousand miles of freight RR in Siberia, Alaska, and other places "unfriendly to economical RR construction and operation" in order to ship from China to the US via rail.
timwaagh 4y ago
Themz commies something something pooh bear.

China spent the last two years demonstrating that they're "fair weather partners" when it comes to trade. And winter is coming. So obviously it's not bad _per se_ to rely on China ; but if it's not possible to diversify sourcing, this is begging for a disaster next time whatever geopolitic hits the fan.

CyanBird 4y ago
> Fairweather What do you even mean, it wasn't them whom started the whole tradewar... It was the US gov
- phtrivier 4y ago
  I meant that in any situation where china has to choose between interior market / upholding CCP plans / régional partnership vs trading with the global west, they will chose the former in times of crisis. Which is not a bad thing, again, it's just that everyone is relying on them as if they are an infinite factory of everything with unlimited supply, and it seems that, well, it's not true any more. But if they decide to stop trade with Russia tomorrow, I'll reconsider.
criley2 4y ago
How did they spend two years demonstrating they are fair weather partners? Was it the part where they locked workers inside of factories producing goods for America to make sure that the Americans got their shipments in spite of the Covid-0 policy? Or was it how China is actually upholding most sanctions against Russia, despite giving less than 0 f's about Ukraine? IMO the real disaster would be a total de-link between Chinese and American economies. Neither country can currently engage in any kind of meaningful hostilities while 10%+ of their economies are linked in trade. Trade prevents war because war would mean decimation of their economies and lead to likely depressions, although I suppose the results of Russia's invasion and how their economy handles de-linking will inform this logic going forward
- Cupertino95014 4y ago
  > Trade prevents war because war would mean decimation of their economies and lead to likely depressions 1913 is calling and wants its optimism back. If the fertilizer hits the fan re Taiwan, the CCP will not hesitate to cut off all trade with everyone who supports Taiwan.
  - sudosysgen 4y ago
    They won't stop trading with Taiwan supporting countries. They don't have any plans of that as far as anyone knows and never threatened it. The threat is that the US executes it's public plans of sinking ships trading with China in such a contingency.
    - phtrivier 4y ago
      That will sound tongue in cheek, and to some extend it is, but if the last few years have shown us anything, it's the perils of starting a sentence by "xxx won't yyy" (for several values of x and y.)
      - sudosysgen 4y ago
        That's an extrapolation. There hasn't ever been in a country that decided to sanction themselves within wartime from most of the world economy, and leaked documents show that one of the reason China wants Taiwan to begin with is to make their trade more secure.
        Cupertino95014 4y ago
        I don't even know what the first sentence is supposed to mean. Germany knew they would be blockaded by the Brits in WW I and II and proceeded to go to war anyway, so didn't they "decided [sic] to sanction themselves within wartime from most of the world economy"? Japan continued with their China war in the 1930s, despite sanctions from the US and the West, so didn't they? As for the "leaked documents", the claim on Taiwan is that it is an inseparable part of China, and not that they want "to make their trade more secure."

clouddrover 4y ago

China arbitrarily bans trade when it wants to "punish" nations: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-turns-to-lobsters-wine-and-coal-to-punish-australia-1.1516850 https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-turns-to-lobsters-wine-and... China has made it clear that it is an unreliable business partner. It is a mistake to do business with nations that don't share your values, as Russia is also currently demonstrating.

pacija 4y ago
This is the price, those are the terms. If you don't like them go buy somewhere else or produce yourself.
- stale2002 4y ago
  So then yes, you agree completely with the statement that was made, which was "It is a mistake to do business with nations that don't share your values". Yeah that's the point.
pokepim 4y ago
[flagged]
- clouddrover 4y ago
  > And what values are exactly that? Democratic nations which abide by international trade agreements. Nations you can do business with which are governed by the rule of law instead of the whims of a political party or dictator. > We just had president who was white supremacist who called other countries shitholes. America can turn itself into whatever it wants to be. If America can no longer be trusted in business then it's correct not to do business with it. > When business with China was good nobody cared they still had communist party ruling the country. Yes, that's a mistake.
- wowokay 4y ago
  What the heck? Do you somehow only watch the super opinionated stuff on both Fox and CNN, giving you polar opposite trash talk from both sides of the aisle? Lol If anything The first one wasn’t a white supremacist because “he had alot of Mexican friends” and the other isn’t cozying up to a dictator because our gas supply offset wasn’t shifty to Saudi backed oil supplies, not to mention all his work his son has done with sketchy characters that he tries to distance himself from.

bell-cot 4y ago

Beyond the political issues already noted... - "We must travel to the most-distant place in the world, and the only source of $Thing, which we cannot survive without!" That sounds great, if you're writing epic fantasy quest stories. If you're talking supply chain management...maybe there is something profoundly wrong with your company? - Even if the CCP would never dream of squeezing Ford's battery life-line...the battery factory there could be shut down for yet another COVID outbreak, or the US could squeeze it (due to domestic politics or "Taiwan Troubles"), or etc. - The giant mess (huge delays, staggering price spikes, etc.) that global shipping has been in the past few years. Shipping car batteries from China to the US via air freight does not sound like a money-making plan. My old World Atlas suggests that shipping by rail is probably not an option.

dylan604 4y ago
>My old World Atlas suggests that shipping by rail is probably not an option. Is that the same atlas that says there's not an option for rail from UK to France as well?
- bell-cot 4y ago
  Great quip, but it's more complex. The Chunnel is delicate infrastructure, with neither a backup nor a short repair time if something bad happened. I have not examined their Dangerous/Forbidden Freight List for "bulk rechargeable batteries" - but such lists can change. OTOH, there are dense freight rail networks on both sides of the Channel, and similar for ports, shipping, etc. Vs. you'd need to build a few thousand miles of freight RR in Siberia, Alaska, and other places "unfriendly to economical RR construction and operation" in order to ship from China to the US via rail.

timwaagh 4y ago

Themz commies something something pooh bear.