5 ms·

500 is 1-(1-risk)^500 the risk

• ncmncm 4y ago
  ... which is much larger than 500x, approaching near-certainty, for any non-negligible value of unit risk.
• Retric 4y ago
  This isn’t one of those cases where the only thing you care about is if something happens or not as humanity would need to deal with and thus pay for every nuclear accident. As there is no discount if it happens twice vs once every reactor is an independent risk. Thus, 500 reactors is 500x the risk. You might argue multiple major disasters might result in more reactors being shut down as knee jerk reaction, but shutting down 500 additional reactors is 5x more expensive than shutting down 100.