3 ms·
This is just a bad analysis. You have to go to the comments to find relevant terms like "Dyson swarm" and "Kardashev scale". The worst mistake is limiting energ
by cletus 4y ago
This is just a bad analysis. You have to go to the comments to find relevant terms like "Dyson swarm" and "Kardashev scale". The worst mistake is limiting energy collection to what hits the Earth.
Here is (IMHO) the likely course of humanity, assuming we don't descend into fascism with the upcoming climate-change caused mass migration and starvation or otherwise wipe ourselves out.
We will build Dyson swarms. What are Dyson swarms? They are nothing more than a collection of orbitals that orbit the Sun. The most basic form of these is an O'Neil Cylinder, which is about 3 miles in diameter and 10-20 miles long. You put solar power collectors on these things and they're pretty much self-sufficient.
Why this size? Because you can build that with a material no stroner than stainless steel. Any larger and the centrifugal force will of rotating for spin gravity will tear it apart. If mass production with graphene ever goes anywhere, it opens the door to building McKendree Cylinder, which could get to ~300 miles in diameter and thousands of miles long.
So the question is why. Several reasons:
1. You can effectively collect all the energy the Sun outputs;
2. This is only predicated on solar power, something we can already build. It isn't predicated on nuclear fusion power generation, for example. I'm personaly not convinced fusion will ever be commercially viable. It might and that'd be great but it's not a pre-requisitie for that and that's what's important;
3. It requires no new physics or no magical new materials; and
4. Here's the big one: it's super-efficient in creating living area per unit mass. I think I saw an estimate that you could build a complete Dyson swarm around the Sun with ~1% of the mass of Mercury. Such a Dyson swarm could comfortably house more than 10^15 people with an energy budget per person orders of magnitude than what we have now.
So a brief note about the Kardashev scale. This is an approximation but a Kardashev-1 ("K1") civilization is defined as using the entire energy output of a planet. This is estimated as 10^16 Watts. A K2 civilization uses the entire energy output of a star, estimated at 10^26 Watts. A k3 civilization is the entire galaxy at about 10^36 Watts.
Humans use about 10^11 Watts (IIRC) of energy. So a K2 civilization might have 10^15 people but have access to 10^26 Watts of power. That's 10^11 Watts of power per person.
The scale of a K2 civilization is almost beyond comprehension.
- Firmwarrior 4y agoI'm glad that a few of the influential billionaires out there nowadays calling the shots think along the same lines as you. I grew up under this dark cloud of thinking there's no future for humanity, we all have to tighten our belts and cut way back to survive at all, blah blah blah. Yet here we are, right on the cusp of realistically exploiting the ridiculously vast resources of the solar system! I'll bet that 50 years from now, humanity will be so rich that even stingy red state welfare will pay for a lifestyle I can barely afford nowadays on my fat tech salary.