3 ms·

What am I missing? S&P is down 10% yearly, 17% YTD, no? When "safe" investments are looking worse than keeping your money in the bank getting hit with inflation

What am I missing? S&P is down 10% yearly, 17% YTD, no? When "safe" investments are looking worse than keeping your money in the bank getting hit with inflation, rational people start getting desperate and scams explode. Anyone who has lived in emerging markets knows the sentence soon becomes "Don't invest in <previous safe investment> more than you can afford to lose." And the last stage in such countries ends up being: "Don't put more dollars in your bank than you can afford to lose" (because your failing bank or country will confiscate it). Until you reach this stage the number of scams increases exponentially.

2OEH8eoCRo0 4y ago
Was the S&P 500 up or down and how much in 2021?
- sillyfleece 4y ago
  Is this really the line you are going to use to convince people to avoid scams? I'd like you to meet Sam the Scammer: "If you would have bought bitcoin on this date in 2019 you would have been up 200% by now. You would have doubled your money in 3 years. literally."
  - dymk 4y ago
    Long term investment in the S&P500 has proven to be a good idea over decades. Things go up and down, but S&P generally has gone up on average for at least the last 50 years.
    - sillyfleece 4y ago
      - dymk 4y ago
        If you think people only care about the next 3-5 years, unequivocally, then your knowledge on how people invest is questionable. Long term investing (10+ years) is an absolutely massive industry. The market works in approximately 10 year cycles. Invest long term, ignore short term sideshows. It's simple, even a layperson can do it.
        sillyfleece 4y ago
        If you think lay people are going to be able to stomach being in the red year after year for 3-5 years without desperately looking for an out, I think you may need to reconsider your understanding of human psychology.
oh_my_goodness 4y ago
Since you asked, you seem to be missing the difference between these two distinctly different outcomes: (a) losing 10% to 17%, probably to make it back within a few years (b) losing 66%, 99%, or 99.99%, without any likely path to ever make the money back.
- sillyfleece 4y ago
  >probably to make it back within a few years "probably"? Are you willing to be held criminally liable when the elderly take your advice and the S&P does not bend to your will for the next year or two due to say -- oh I don't know -- unforeseen world events? edit: I was alluding to the possibility of c): not investing in the S&P or crypto for the duration and suffering inflation. which would have been better than a) and b) since inflation is added on top of both those losses.
  - oh_my_goodness 4y ago
    I very genuinely don't understand what point you're making. Are you equating the risks of crypto and an S&P 500 index fund?
    - sillyfleece 4y ago
      Not at all. The first post I replied to was saying index funds are safe for lay people to invest in. I'm saying index funds may not be safe for lay people to invest in in these extraordinary times. Crypto is way riskier than index funds, I agree.

2OEH8eoCRo0 4y ago

Was the S&P 500 up or down and how much in 2021?

sillyfleece 4y ago
Is this really the line you are going to use to convince people to avoid scams? I'd like you to meet Sam the Scammer: "If you would have bought bitcoin on this date in 2019 you would have been up 200% by now. You would have doubled your money in 3 years. literally."
- dymk 4y ago
  Long term investment in the S&P500 has proven to be a good idea over decades. Things go up and down, but S&P generally has gone up on average for at least the last 50 years.
  - sillyfleece 4y ago
    - dymk 4y ago
      If you think people only care about the next 3-5 years, unequivocally, then your knowledge on how people invest is questionable. Long term investing (10+ years) is an absolutely massive industry. The market works in approximately 10 year cycles. Invest long term, ignore short term sideshows. It's simple, even a layperson can do it.
      - sillyfleece 4y ago
        If you think lay people are going to be able to stomach being in the red year after year for 3-5 years without desperately looking for an out, I think you may need to reconsider your understanding of human psychology.

oh_my_goodness 4y ago

Since you asked, you seem to be missing the difference between these two distinctly different outcomes: (a) losing 10% to 17%, probably to make it back within a few years (b) losing 66%, 99%, or 99.99%, without any likely path to ever make the money back.

sillyfleece 4y ago
>probably to make it back within a few years "probably"? Are you willing to be held criminally liable when the elderly take your advice and the S&P does not bend to your will for the next year or two due to say -- oh I don't know -- unforeseen world events? edit: I was alluding to the possibility of c): not investing in the S&P or crypto for the duration and suffering inflation. which would have been better than a) and b) since inflation is added on top of both those losses.
- oh_my_goodness 4y ago
  I very genuinely don't understand what point you're making. Are you equating the risks of crypto and an S&P 500 index fund?
  - sillyfleece 4y ago
    Not at all. The first post I replied to was saying index funds are safe for lay people to invest in. I'm saying index funds may not be safe for lay people to invest in in these extraordinary times. Crypto is way riskier than index funds, I agree.